Select modules for distributed projects climb with policy impact looms

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices remain stable this week. Deliveries in February are mostly from previous orders, while new orders are still under negotiation as market players assess demand trends for March and April. Some deals are still in discussion. Prices for China-made polysilicon chunks stay at RMB 37-43/kg, with mainstream manufacturers delivering at RMB 39-41/kg and second- and third-tier manufacturers at RMB 37-39/kg. The lower price range has narrowed slightly, while higher prices of RMB 42-43/kg are mostly for smaller, short-term transactions. However, significant price increases are unlikely due to pressure from downstream prices.

China-made granular polysilicon is mainly delivered from major manufacturers at RMB 37-39/kg, while new orders from mid-to-late-tier manufacturers are still under negotiation.

The market remains cautious, as demand in March and April will be a key factor. Many wafer manufacturers still have polysilicon in stock, so negotiations for new orders are prudent due to the fast-changing market.

Polysilicon production is steady, but February’s purchases have decreased due to weaker demand. Shipments are stable, but inventory is clearing slowly.
 

Wafer

Wafer market remains stable this week. Some cell manufacturers are reducing wafer purchases, prioritizing the use of their existing stock.

Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers land at RMB 1.1-1.15/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. As p-type wafers have become customized products, demand in China has dropped sharply, with sales mainly driven by non-China orders.

N-type wafers this week:

• M10 183N: Mainstream trading prices stay at RMB 1.18/piece. 

• G12R: Trading prices remain at RMB 1.3/piece. 

• G12N: Trading prices hold at RMB 1.55/piece.

Industry self-regulation continues this week, with updated quota allocations for each company. As the market becomes more regulated, wafer prices will depend on enforcement and will stay stable. 
 

Cell

This week's solar cell prices are as follows:

P-type M10 cells:

• Average Price: Steady at RMB 0.33/W

• High Price: Increased to RMB 0.35/W

• Price Range: RMB 0.32-0.35/W

Due to the high prices of p-type cells, some manufacturers are reportedly restarting p-type M10 cell production in February. However, as non-China demand remains robust, supply is still tight, and prices show no signs of slipping in the short term.

N-type cells:

M10:

• Average Price: Steady at RMB 0.29/W.

• Low Price: Decreased from RMB 0.29/W to RMB 0.285/W.

• Price Range: RMB 0.285-0.295/W.

G12:

• Average Price: Unchanged at RMB 0.295/W.

• High Price: Dropped to RMB 0.295/W.

• Price Range: RMB 0.29-0.295/W.

G12R:

• Average Price: Increased to RMB 0.285/W.

• Price Range: RMB 0.28-0.29/W.

• Both high and low prices have risen this week.

It is worth noting that this week, trading prices for G12 cells have varied among manufacturers.

Reasons for price hikes:

• Post-holiday G12R production has not fully ramped up for some cell manufacturers.

• Differences in customer concentration among manufacturers have led to varying order volumes and demand, resulting in uneven price hikes.

Thus, some leading manufacturers have raised trading prices to above RMB 0.29/W due to short-term supply-demand imbalances. Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers have seen more stable price hikes.

The price trend outlook remains consistent with the last week:

• End-user demand and cell supply are still affected by policies, such as China’s May 31 New Policy.

• Cell manufacturers are closely monitoring production schedules for March across the supply chain.

• Shifts in supply-demand dynamics among different formats must be considered.

• In the short term, price negotiations across the supply chain will continue.
   

Module

This week’s real-time observations on manufacturers’ order intake:

• The rush to install ahead of China’s May 31 New Policy has not yet led to a significant increase in orders.

• Major manufacturers have reported a slight increase in China's orders, but most of this growth came from distributed projects, particularly C&I distributed projects.

• Ground-mounted projects show limited growth potential, as only about two months remain until China’s May 31 New Policy, constraining the timeframe for new installations.

• Some manufacturers noted that inventory levels have mostly normalized. Thus, the slight rise in China's orders has led to a reduced supply of non-China orders.
   

Recent market trends:

Ground-mounted projects:

• Remain stable with new orders not yet fully finalized.

• Need to monitor next week to see how new orders are confirmed.

Distributed projects:

• Module manufacturers have raised price quotes by RMB 0.01-0.02/W due to recent policy changes.

• Prices have slightly increased.
   

Module prices this week:

TOPCon:

• Delivery prices: RMB 0.62-0.71/W

• Lower-price range (RMB 0.62-0.65/W) has significantly narrowed.

182mm PERC glass-glass:

• RMB 0.60–0.68/W

HJT:

• RMB 0.71–0.85/W

• Lower-price range has slightly increased by RMB 0.01-0.02/W.

N-TBC:

• RMB 0.69–0.79/W

Non-China module prices stabilize this week:

• TOPCon: USD 0.085-0.09/W

• HJT: USD 0.09-0.11/W

• PERC: USD 0.065-0.08/W
   

TOPCon module prices by region: 

Prices come in at USD 0.085-0.09/W in the Asia Pacific and USD 0.085-0.09/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, with minimal price gap between PERC and TOPCon ones. Modules are delivered at USD 0.09/W in Australia. 

The overall futures delivery price in Europe remains at EUR 0.088 -0.09/W. Negotiations for H2 prices are ongoing, and ground-mounted project prices will likely rise from the previous level of USD 0.08-0.083/W to USD 0.085/W. The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.085-0.09/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.07-0.09/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.085-0.09/W, with previous orders delivered at USD 0.09-0.095/W.

US market prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.27/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. Price quotes for new orders keep falling and are likely to drop further in 1Q25. Local-made price quotes sit at USD 0.27–0.3/W, while non-local-made ones are at USD 0.18–0.20/W.