Prices rise for G12R wafers and modules for distributed projects

Polysilicon

China-made polysilicon chunks this week: 

• Spot prices sit at RMB 38-43/kg. 
• Major manufacturers deliver at RMB 40-42/kg. 
• Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers deliver at RMB 39-40/kg. 

Prices have risen due to increasing downstream prices and policy uncertainties, resulting in diverging strategies among manufacturers.

• Few orders at high-end trading prices for polysilicon have reached RMB 42/kg, but the average price remains flat.
• March prices will likely stay at RMB 39-41/kg.

China-made granular polysilicon this week:

• Primarily supplied by major manufacturers.
• Prices land at RMB 37-39/kg.
• More orders are delivered at higher prices.

Future price trends for polysilicon will hinge on manufacturers' inventory depletion progress as both buyers and sellers experience high inventory levels. Given that the wafer sector has held a certain amount of polysilicon, polysilicon manufacturers have limited negotiation power.

Key focuses:

• Manufacturers' production schedules and inventory levels.
• Self-regulation within the industry.
• New production capacity and expansion speed from April to May.

If overall production volume does not surge sharply and non-China demand can support the market after China's installation rush, prices may hold steady within a controlled range.
 

Wafer

As the downstream installation rush approaches, strong demand has led to shortages of some wafer formats, driving up RN wafer prices, with trading prices generally at RMB 1.35/piece.

P-type wafer trading prices this week: 

• M10: RMB 1.1-1.15/piece (stay still) 
• G12: RMB 1.7/piece (stay still) 

As p-type wafers have become customized products, demand in China has sharply decreased, with sales mainly driven by non-China orders.

N-type wafer trading prices this week:  

• M10 183N: RMB 1.18/piece (sustained)

• G12R: RMB 1.35/piece (raised) 

• G12N: RMB 1.55/piece (sustained) 

Reportedly, some manufacturers are considering raising price quotes for March. 

Price forecast:

• 183N wafers: RMB 1.2/piece  
• 210RN wafers: RMB 1.35/piece  

These adjustments are linked to slight rebounds in both cell and module prices. Transactions at these price levels may materialize in the near future.
 

Cell

Average and high prices of p-type M10 cells have decreased, averaging RMB 0.32/W, ranging from RMB 0.31-0.33/W. High p-type cell prices are driven by strong non-China demand. Considering delivery and transportation times, India's cell demand may start falling this week as the fiscal year-end installation rush ends in late March. P-type cell prices could drop further.

N-type cell prices this week:

M10:

• Average price: Stable at RMB 0.29/W
• Price range: RMB 0.285-0.295/W

G12:

• Average price: Stable at RMB 0.295/W
• Price range: RMB 0.29-0.295/W

Notably, delivery prices vary with different order concentrations among manufacturers. Leading manufacturers sell at RMB 0.295/W, while smaller manufacturers offer RMB 0.29/W.

G12R:

• Average price: Has increased to RMB 0.30/W
• Price range: RMB 0.29-0.31/W

As last week, demand is rising ahead of China’s May 31 New Policy, and production share of G12R modules is increasing in March. Considering production and delivery cycles, the supply-demand imbalance is keeping G12R cell prices on an upward trend.

In March, n-type cell prices may rise as wafer prices increase and demand stays strong. The overall cell prices may increase, but the final trend will depend on supply and demand for different sizes.
 

Module

Due to policy changes in China, the market have seen a rush in installations, especially in distributed projects, leading to higher demand. This has boosted manufacturer order intake in March and April. Manufacturers have controlled production well from January to March, reducing excess non-China inventory after previous sell-offs. While some older models remain in stock, fewer shipments in January and February have led to shortages of popular new models. 

Manufacturers worry about price stability after the installation rush of the May 31 New Policy. This depends on steady non-China demand, which is growing in Europe, the Middle East, Pakistan, and South Africa, possibly supporting prices through May and June. Production planning also needs to stay cautious, but it remains unclear if prices can remain above RMB 0.70/W in the long term.

This week, module prices for distributed projects have risen by RMB 0.01-0.03/W, with spot prices reaching RMB 0.65-0.73/W. Leading four manufacturers have pushed prices above RMB 0.70/W, with quotes trending toward RMB 0.75/W, though actual sales remain uncertain.

Ground-mounted projects have fewer deliveries this week, with prices remaining at RMB 0.66-0.68/W, same as last week. Cost increases have pressured manufacturers, making low-price deliveries (RMB 0.6-0.65/W) unsustainable. Since late February, manufacturers have been reducing or pausing deliveries of low-price orders. They are negotiating with end users for revised prices and delivery terms, with talks expected to conclude in March. However, given limited end-user acceptance, price increases may be modest, rising by RMB 0.01-0.02/W.

Module prices this week: 

TOPCon: 

• Average price: Has risen to RMB 0.7/W

182mm PERC glass-glass: 

• RMB 0.60–0.68/W 

HJT: 

• RMB 0.72-0.85/W 
• Lower-price range has slightly increased by RMB 0.01/W. 

N-TBC: 

• RMB 0.70–0.80/W

Non-China module prices stabilize this week: 

• TOPCon: USD 0.085-0.09/W 
• HJT: USD 0.09-0.11/W 
• PERC: USD 0.065-0.08/W

Short-term price rises are being discussed due to:

• Manufacturers' cautious production schedules in recent months
• Tight deliveries for popular formats

TOPCon module prices by region:  

Prices come in at USD 0.085-0.09/W in the Asia Pacific and USD 0.085-0.09/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, with a minimal price gap between PERC and TOPCon. 

Reportedly, Pakistan may impose an import duty starting in mid-2025, resulting in rising price quotes. However, the final prices will hinge on official confirmation.

Modules are delivered at USD 0.09/W in Australia, with prices of distributed generation projects starting to increase. The overall delivery price in Europe remains at USD 0.09-0.092/W. Negotiations for H2 prices are ongoing, and ground-mounted project prices will likely rise from the previous level of USD 0.08-0.083/W to USD 0.085/W. Spot prices stay stable at USD 0.09/W. The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.085-0.09/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.07-0.09/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.085-0.09/W, with previous orders delivered at USD 0.09-0.095/W.

US market prices are impacted by policy changes, leading to weaker project activities. Local-made price quotes sit at USD 0.25–0.3/W, while non-local-made ones are at USD 0.18–0.20/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W.