Supply chain prices edge up amid installation rush

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices remain stable this week. 

China-made polysilicon chunks:

• Spot prices sit at RMB 38-43/kg. 

• Major manufacturers deliver at RMB 40-42/kg. 

• Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers deliver at RMB 39-40/kg.

China-made granular polysilicon:

• Primarily supplied by major manufacturers.

• Prices land at RMB 37-39/kg.

Price quotes have risen due to increasing downstream prices and policy uncertainties, resulting in diverging strategies among manufacturers. However, both buyers and sellers hold some inventory, limiting manufacturers' ability to raise prices. March prices will likely stay within RMB 39-42/kg.

Key factors to watch include the implementation of high-quality industry development strategies and the pace of new production capacity coming online in April-May. If overall production volume does not surge sharply and non-China demand can support the market after China's installation rush, prices may hold steady within a controlled range.
 

Wafer

As the April 30 and May 31 new policies have caused installation rush, strong demand has led to a shortage in wafer supply. Today, wafer manufacturers announced new price quotes:

• 183N: RMB 1.20/piece

• 210RN: RMB 1.40/piece

• 210N: RMB 1.55/piece

All prices increased except for 210N. The new pricing will take effect this Thursday (March 14).

P-type wafer trading prices stay still this week: 

• M10: RMB 1.1-1.15/piece

• G12: RMB 1.7/piece

As p-type wafers have become customized products, demand in China has sharply decreased, with sales mainly driven by non-China orders.

N-type wafer trading prices this week:  

• M10 183N: RMB 1.18/piece (sustained)

• G12R: RMB 1.35/piece (sustained) 

• G12N: RMB 1.55/piece (sustained) 
   

Cell

P-type M10 cell prices this week:

• Average price: Decreased to RMB 0.31/W

• Price range: RMB 0.295-0.32/W

• Prices declined across all tiers (both high- and low-price ranges).

• High P-type cell prices are driven by strong non-China demand.

• India's fiscal year-end installation rush may end in late March.

• Considering delivery and shipping timelines, India’s cell demand may start falling this week.

• P-type cell prices are likely to drop further.

All n-type cells see price hikes this week:

M10:

• Average price: RMB 0.295/W

• Price range: RMB 0.29-0.31/W

G12R:

• Average price: RMB 0.32/W

• Price range: RMB 0.31-0.35/W

• Key factor: Supply shortage is ongoing.

• Pricing divergence: Prices vary significantly among manufacturers' supply volumes amid constant supply shortages.

• Major quotes: RMB 0.33-0.35/W

G12:

• Average price: RMB 0.30/W

• Price range: RMB 0.295-0.31/W

*Note: High delivery prices for M10 and G12R are secured by leading manufacturers.

Price forecast for n-type cell prices in March:

Thanks to policy incentives boosting end-user demand, rising module prices, and increased wafer prices, overall n-type cell prices are likely to see rises in March. However, the actual price trend will hinge on the supply-demand dynamics for different cell formats.
 

Module

Given conservative production plans in January and February, lower inventories, and China's installation rush, supply for some popular module formats remains tight. As a result, distributed project prices have continued rising. After stabilizing at RMB 0.72-0.73/W last week, price quotes this week land at RMB 0.74-0.75/W, with a few traded within 1-2 days at this level. Manufacturers are attempting to raise prices to RMB 0.80/W, but distributor acceptance remains limited.

For ground-mounted projects, lower trading volumes recently have kept prices flat at RMB 0.60-0.69/W. Manufacturers are reluctant to deliver at RMB 0.60-0.63/W, only making small deliveries to maintain customer relationships. Price approvals from buyers take time, and with the two-month window, fewer ground-mounted projects can move on. After this period, prices may drop to RMB 0.65-0.68/W in H2.

The weighted average of module prices is primarily based on distributed projects, as they experience greater price increases and higher execution and delivery volumes. Module prices this week:

TOPCon:

• RMB 0.60-0.75/W

• Average price: RMB 0.72/W

182mm PERC glass-glass:

• RMB 0.60-0.68/W

HJT:

• RMB 0.75-0.85/W

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.75-0.78/W

BC:

• N-TBC: RMB 0.73-0.80/W

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.73-0.76/W

Non-China module prices stabilize this week:

• TOPCon: USD 0.085-0.09/W  

• HJT: USD 0.095-0.11/W  

• PERC: USD 0.07-0.08/W

Due to China's installation rush, manufacturers have reduced low-price exports, leading to a slight price adjustment. However, raised prices are not driven by rising demand but rather by supply constraints.

• Pakistan: Buyers have increased purchases due to concerns over potential tariffs, pushing module prices slightly up to USD 0.09/W.

• Europe: Prices have risen subtly to USD 0.085-0.095/W amid short supply for non-China markets.

TOPCon module prices by region:   

Prices come in at USD 0.085-0.09/W in the Asia Pacific and USD 0.085-0.09/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, with a minimal price gap between PERC and TOPCon.

Modules are delivered at USD 0.085-0.09/W in Pakistan and USD 0.09/W in Australia, with prices of distributed generation projects starting to rise by USD 0.09-0.10/W. The overall delivery price in Europe remains at USD 0.085-0.095/W. H2 prices for ground-mounted projects sit at USD 0.085-0.087/W.

The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.080-0.095/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.08-0.095/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.085-0.09/W, with previous orders delivered at USD 0.09-0.105/W.

US market prices are impacted by policy changes, leading to weaker project activities. Local-made TOPCon price quotes sit at USD 0.3-0.33/W, while non-local-made ones are at USD 0.25-0.27/W. Non-local-made TOPCon prices may continue to decline in Q2.