Price increases to sustain in April amid installation rush

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices remain stable this week.

Currently, confirmed orders remain few amid manufacturers' cautious attitude toward the market.  

China-made polysilicon chunks: 

• Spot prices sit at RMB 38-43/kg.  

• Major manufacturers deliver at RMB 40-42/kg.  

• Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers deliver at RMB 39-40/kg. 

China-made granular polysilicon: 

• Primarily supplied by major manufacturers. 

• Prices land at RMB 37-39/kg.

Price quotes have risen due to increasing downstream prices and policy uncertainties, resulting in diverging strategies among manufacturers. However, both buyers and sellers hold some inventory, limiting manufacturers' ability to raise prices. March prices will likely stay within RMB 39-42/kg.

Key factors to watch include the implementation of high-quality industry development strategies and the pace of new production capacity coming online in April and May. If overall production volume does not surge sharply and non-China demand can support the market after China's installation rush, prices may hold steady within a controlled range.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices continue to rise this week, driven by strong demand ahead of the installation rush due to China's April 30 and May 31 New Policy; price hikes in the cell sector bring wafer prices up.

Wafer price quotes this week:

• 183N: RMB 1.20/piece

• 210RN: RMB 1.40/piece

• 210N: RMB 1.55/piece

Expected price quotes tomorrow (March 20):

• 183N: RMB 1.23/piece (raised)

• 210RN: RMB 1.45/piece (raised)

P-type wafer trading prices stay still this week:  

• M10: RMB 1.1-1.15/piece 

• G12: RMB 1.7/piece 

As p-type wafers have become customized products, demand in China has sharply decreased, with sales mainly driven by non-China orders.

N-type wafer trading prices this week:   

• M10 183N: RMB 1.2/piece (raised)

• G12R: RMB 1.4/piece (raised)

• G12N: RMB 1.55/piece (sustained)

Outlook:

The overall supply chain price hikes around the installation rush will be likely.

Wafer price trends hinge on:

• Supply-demand dynamics

• Inventory levels

• The extent of downstream price hikes
   

Cell

P-type M10 cell prices this week: 

• Average price: RMB 0.31/W (sustained) 

• Price range: RMB 0.295-0.32/W (sustained) 

• P-type cell prices have slipped as India's fiscal year-end installation rush is about to conclude.

• Given the delivery and shipping timelines, non-China p-type cell demand has phased out, with some manufacturers reportedly quoting below RMB 0.29/W this week.

• P-type cell delivery prices are likely to drop further.

N-type cell prices this week: 

M10: 

• Average price: RMB 0.30/W (raised)

• Price range: RMB 0.295-0.31/W 

G12R: 

• Average price: RMB 0.33/W (raised)

• Price range: RMB 0.32-0.35/W 

• Manufacturers' quotes this week have risen above RMB 0.34/W amid the ongoing tight supply.

• Leading manufacturers are now delivering at this price level.

G12: 

• Average price: RMB 0.30/W (sustained)

• Price range: RMB 0.295-0.31/W 

Price forecast for n-type cell prices in March:

Thanks to policy incentives boosting short-term end-user demand and rising supply chain prices, overall n-type cell prices have increased recently. However, as the policy-driven installation rush ends, and given manufacturers' transport and delivery cycles, the overall cell prices may slip after mid-April as China's demand plunges. Further price trend will hinge on the supply-demand dynamics for each cell format.
 

Module

Price quotes rose to RMB 0.74-0.75/W last week. This week, transactions have ramped up at RMB 0.73-0.75/W. However, due to the focus on high-quality development, manufacturers remain cautious in production plans, with some reporting difficulties in securing enough cells for production. These factors have led to small-volume transactions at higher prices of RMB 0.78-0.8/W, though large-scale deals have yet to materialize.

For ground-mounted projects, lower trading volumes recently have kept prices hovering at RMB 0.635-0.69/W. Manufacturers are reluctant to deliver at the low price range of RMB 0.60-0.63/W, only delivering few to maintain customer relationships. Under negotiations with module manufacturers, the volume of low-price deliveries continues to decline. However, overall price adjustments for ground-mounted projects remain slow.

Price approvals from buyers take time, and with the two-month window, fewer ground-mounted projects can move on. After this period, prices may drop to RMB 0.65-0.68/W in H2.

The weighted average of module prices is primarily based on distributed projects, as they experience greater price increases and higher delivery volumes.

Module prices this week:

TOPCon:

• Delivery price: RMB 0.68-0.80/W 

• Average price: RMB 0.73/W 

182mm PERC glass-glass:

• RMB 0.60-0.68/W 

HJT: 

• RMB 0.76-0.85/W 

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.76-0.78/W 

BC: 

• N-TBC: RMB 0.73-0.82/W 

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.73-0.76/W

Non-China module prices stabilize this week: 

• TOPCon: USD 0.085-0.09/W

• HJT: USD 0.095-0.11/W

• PERC: USD 0.07-0.08/W

TOPCon module prices by region:  

Prices come in at USD 0.085-0.09/W in the Asia Pacific and USD 0.085-0.09/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, with a small price gap between PERC and TOPCon.

Modules are delivered at USD 0.085-0.09/W in Pakistan and USD 0.09/W in Australia, with prices of distributed generation projects starting to rise by USD 0.09-0.10/W. Overall delivery prices in Europe remain at USD 0.085-0.095/W. H2 prices for ground-mounted projects sit at USD 0.085-0.087/W. 

The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.080-0.095/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.08-0.095/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.085-0.09/W, with previous orders delivered at USD 0.09-0.105/W.

US market prices are impacted by policy changes, leading to weaker project activities. Local-made TOPCon price quotes sit at USD 0.3-0.33/W, while non-local-made ones are at USD 0.25-0.27/W. Non-local-made TOPCon prices may continue to decline in Q2.