Module price surge nears peak as momentum slows

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices remain stable this week.

China-made polysilicon chunks: 

• Spot prices sit at RMB 38-43/kg.  

• Major manufacturers deliver at RMB 40-42/kg.  

• Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers deliver at RMB 39-40/kg.  

China-made granular polysilicon: 

• Primarily supplied by major manufacturers. 

• Prices land at RMB 37-39/kg.  

• Price quotes raised by RMB 1/kg (yet to be finalized).

Price quotes have risen due to increasing downstream prices and policy uncertainties, resulting in diverging strategies among manufacturers. Further price hikes are still likely, but both buyers and sellers currently hold a certain level of inventory. At present, only a few orders are being traded, and this month's delivery volumes remain constrained by buyers' existing stock levels. However, with wafer manufacturers increasing production in April, inventory levels may gradually decline.

Key factors to watch include the implementation of high-quality industry development strategies and the pace of new production capacity coming online in April and May. If overall production volume does not surge sharply and non-China demand can support the market after China's installation rush, prices may hold steady within a controlled range.
 

Wafer

Driven by strong demand ahead of the installation rush due to China's April 30 and May 31 New Policy, wafer prices sustain upward trends.

This week, overall wafer prices have stayed flat; RN wafer prices have risen again, reaching RMB 1.45/piece.

Wafer manufacturers are expected to offer new price quotes today (March 26):

• 183N: RMB 1.23/piece

• 210RN: RMB 1.5/piece

The updated prices will officially take effect and be delivered starting tomorrow (March 27).

P-type wafer trading prices stay still this week:

• M10: RMB 1.1-1.15/piece

• G12: RMB 1.7/piece

As p-type wafers have become customized products, demand in China has sharply declined, with sales mainly driven by non-China orders.

N-type wafer trading prices this week:   

• M10 183N: RMB 1.2/piece (sustained) (raised)

• G12R: RMB 1.45/piece (raised)

• G12N: RMB 1.55/piece (sustained)

Currently, wafer trading prices continue to rise, with manufacturers constantly raising price quotes. However, market optimism about future trends is not as strong as recent price movements suggest. While demand is temporarily supported by the upcoming installation rush due to China's April 30 and May 31 New Policy, overall market demand may plunge rapidly after these key dates. As a result, prices may struggle to remain at the levels anticipated by wafer manufacturers.
 

Cell

P-type M10 cell prices this week:  

• Average price: RMB 0.31/W (sustained) 

• Price range: RMB 0.295-0.32/W (sustained) 

P-type cell prices have slipped as India's fiscal year-end installation rush is about to conclude. Given the delivery and shipping timelines, non-China p-type cell demand has phased out. P-type cell delivery prices are likely to drop further.  

N-type cell prices this week:  

M10: 

• Average price: 0.305/W (raised)

• Price range: RMB 0.295-0.31/W  

G12R: 

• Average price: RMB 0.34/W (raised)

• Price range: RMB 0.33-0.35/W  

G12: 

• Average price: RMB 0.30/W (sustained)

• Price range: RMB 0.30-0.31/W  

This week, leading manufacturers have started to deliver n-type M10 cells at RMB 0.31/W, while module manufacturers have different acceptance. The overall trend remains to be seen. If large-volume deals start in the second half of the week, the average price of M10 cells could rise above RMB 0.31/W next week.

Price forecast for n-type cell prices:

Policy incentives boosting short-term end-user demand and rising supply chain prices have recently increased overall n-type cell prices. However, as the policy-driven installation rush ends, and given manufacturers' transport and delivery cycles, the overall cell prices may slip after mid-April as China's demand plunges. Further price trends will hinge on the supply-demand dynamics for each cell format.
 

Module

Prices continue to rise slightly this week, with the average increasing by RMB 0.01/W to RMB 0.74/W. Cell supply remains tight due to ongoing high-quality development. Manufacturers are cautious with production, and some are turning to outsourcing.

New orders for distributed projects are mostly settled at RMB 0.75–0.77/W. Sellers are reluctant to accept prices below RMB 0.75/W, while buyers show limited interest in higher prices of RMB 0.78–0.80/W. To balance both sides and prepare for the upcoming installation rush ending, some sellers are mixing in earlier orders or offering small discounts.

Deliveries for ground-mounted projects remain limited, and prices increased slightly this week to RMB 0.635–0.73/W, with the average still at RMB 0.67–0.69/W. Sellers are reluctant to deliver at lower prices of RMB 0.61–0.65/W, only doing so in small volumes to maintain customer relationships. Under pressure from module makers, low-priced deals are declining, and some shipments are based on averaged prices from new orders. Prices may rise slightly next month with upcoming renegotiations, but contract prices for H2 could drop back to below RMB 0.65–0.68/W after the current installation rush.

Module prices this week:

182mm PERC glass-glass:

• RMB 0.60-0.68/W  

HJT:

• RMB 0.75-0.855/W  

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.75-0.78/W  

BC: 

• N-TBC: RMB 0.75-0.84/W  

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.75-0.78/W  

Non-China module prices stabilize this week:  

• TOPCon: USD 0.08-0.1/W  

• HJT: USD 0.095-0.12/W  

• PERC: USD 0.07-0.08/W  

• N-TBC: USD 0.1-0.11/W  

TOPCon module prices by region: 

Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific rise slightly by USD 0.09/W. In India, PERC and TOPCon modules have similar prices. Due to recent changes in Chinese cell prices, there’s been little change this month. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are selling in bulk at USD 0.14–0.15/W.

Modules are delivered at USD 0.09/W in Australia, with prices of distributed generation projects starting to rise by USD 0.09-0.10/W. Overall delivery prices in Europe remain at USD 0.085-0.1/W. H2 prices for ground-mounted projects sit at USD 0.085-0.087/W.

The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.080-0.095/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.08-0.095/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.085-0.09/W, with previous orders delivered at USD 0.09-0.105/W.  

US prices are being influenced by policy changes. As previously expected, imports from Southeast Asia have dropped slightly to USD 0.20–0.27/W, and the U.S. is paying closer attention to products from countries like Laos and Indonesia. This has increased the risks of importing to the U.S. and reduced buyer interest. To avoid risks, buyers are turning to U.S.-made modules, and prices for locally produced TOPCon modules are rising to USD 0.33–0.34/W.