Myanmar quake drives wafer prices up amid demand-supply imbalance

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices remain stable this week.

China-made polysilicon chunks:

• Spot prices sit at RMB 38-43/kg.

• Major manufacturers deliver at RMB 40-42/kg.

• Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers deliver at RMB 39-40/kg.

China-made granular polysilicon:

• Primarily supplied by major manufacturers.

• Prices land at RMB 37-39/kg.

• Price quotes raised by RMB 1/kg (yet to be finalized).

Though the earthquake affected the downstream wafer sector, it had limited impact on polysilicon demand primarily because wafer manufacturers still hold some inventory and will mainly focus on using existing stock through April and May. Polysilicon suppliers will keep prices stable and maintain April production at a level similar to March. After the installation rush, they should remain be cautious of potential price declines.
 

Wafer

The 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar on March 28 affected wafer production areas in China, including Sichuan, Ningxia, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia. The earthquake caused equipment issues --including wire breaks, sealed pots, and furnace explosions—impacting not only actual production output but also the supply-demand balance for wafers. With production limited and leading manufacturers’ new price quotes, wafer makers followed suit by adjusting prices. The market is now in a price readjustment phase.

New prices: 

• 183N: RMB 1.3/piece

• RN: RMB 1.55/piece

• 210N: RMB 1.60/piece

Despite ongoing negotiations, deals at these prices have already been made.

For p-type M10 wafers, trading prices range from RMB 1.05–1.25/piece. In China, weak demand has pushed prices down to RMB 1.05–1.15/piece, while export prices stay at RMB 1.25/piece with support from non-China orders.

Prices for n-type M10 183N wafers rise to RMB 1.25–1.30/piece this week, and some deals have been signed. However, some Tier-2,3 producers are trading at RMB 1.25/piece, showing limited room for further increases.

Prices for larger-format wafers increase this week as well, with G12R at RMB 1.5–1.55/piece and G12N at RMB 1.55–1.60/piece.

In the short term, new price quotes may take hold and stabilize. However, although the earthquake triggered a short-term price rebound, wafer prices may fall again when supply and demand return to balance and demand weakens after key delivery periods.
 

Cell

P-type M10 cell prices this week:  

• Average price: RMB 0.31/W (sustained)  

• Price range: RMB 0.29-0.32/W (slipped)  

P-type cell demand will phase out after India's fiscal year-end installation rush, and overall prices may hover at a flat level.

N-type cell prices this week:  

M10:  

• Average price: RMB 0.31/W (raised) 

• Price range: RMB 0.305-0.32/W  

G12R:  

• Average price: RMB 0.34/W (sustained) 

• Price range: RMB 0.33-0.35/W  

G12:  

• Average price: RMB 0.31/W (raised) 

• Price range: RMB 0.30-0.31/W

This week, leading cell manufacturers have raised price quotes for n-type M10 cells to above RMB 0.32/W, with some traded on Tuesday and Wednesday. Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers are considering following suit. However, whether the average price next week can reach RMB 0.32/W will hinge on module manufacturers' acceptance of the price hike.

Price forecast for n-type cells:

Recent policy-driven demand growth has supported price increases, and this week’s rise in wafer prices has provided further incentive for cell manufacturers to raise prices. However, with end-user demand phasing out, cell prices of all formats will remain under pressure from both upstream and downstream between next week and mid-April. In the short term, significant price hikes are unlikely. As the installation rush ends, cell prices may start to drop accordingly.
 

Module

Prices continue to rise slightly this week, with the average increasing by RMB 0.01/W to RMB 0.75/W. New orders for distributed projects land at RMB 0.70-0.77/W. Price hikes have started to narrow amid the upcoming installation rush. Transactions at the higher range of RMB 0.8-0.82/W remain limited, with some sellers delivering previous orders or offering partial discounts.

Trading prices for ground-mounted projects have slightly increased recently, with the average approaching RMB 0.7/W. Sellers are reluctant to accept low-priced RMB 0.61-0.65/W, only doing so in small volumes to maintain customer relationships. Contract prices for H2, however, may drop back to below RMB 0.65–0.68/W after the installation rush.

Module prices this week: 

182mm PERC glass-glass: 

• RMB 0.60-0.68/W 

HJT:  

• RMB 0.75-0.855/W  

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.75-0.78/W  

BC:  

• N-TBC: RMB 0.80-0.83/W (new orders for distributed projects) 

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.75-0.78/W

Non-China module prices stabilize this week:  

• TOPCon: USD 0.08-0.10/W 

• HJT: USD 0.095-0.12/W 

• PERC: USD 0.07-0.08/W 

• N-TBC: USD 0.10-0.11/W

TOPCon module prices by region: 

Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific rise slightly by USD 0.09/W. In India, PERC and TOPCon modules have similar prices. Due to recent changes in Chinese cell prices, there has been little change this month. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are selling in bulk at USD 0.14–0.15/W.  

Modules are delivered at USD 0.09/W in Australia, with prices of distributed generation projects starting to rise by USD 0.09-0.10/W. Overall delivery prices in Europe remain at USD 0.085-0.1/W. H2 prices for ground-mounted projects sit at USD 0.085-0.087/W. 

The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.080-0.095/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.08-0.095/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.085-0.09/W, with previous orders delivered at USD 0.09-0.105/W.

US prices are being influenced by policy changes. As previously expected, imports from Southeast Asia have dropped slightly to USD 0.20–0.27/W, and the U.S. is paying closer attention to products from countries like Laos and Indonesia. This has increased the risks of importing to the U.S. and reduced buyer interest. To avoid risks, buyers are turning to U.S.-made modules, and prices for locally produced TOPCon modules are rising to USD 0.33–0.34/W.