Prices pare gain as installation rush fades

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices this week stay flat due to fewer orders, but manufacturers have started to offer lower price quotes recently.

China-made polysilicon chunks: 

• Spot prices sit at RMB 38-43/kg. 

• Major manufacturers deliver at RMB 40-42/kg. 

• Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers deliver at RMB 39-40/kg. 

China-made granular polysilicon: 

• Primarily supplied by major manufacturers. 

• Prices land at RMB 37-39/kg. 

Trading price range have been moving downward, primarily due to weakening downstream demand. Although wafer production has been affected by the Myanmar earthquake, there is still a considerable amount of polysilicon in stock. In April and May, wafer makers will prioritize inventory depletion. Moreover, earthquake-related maintenance and adjustments will take time, keeping short-term polysilicon demand low. Polysilicon suppliers will keep prices stable and maintain April production at a level similar to March. After the installation rush, they should remain cautious about potential price declines.
 

Wafer

The wafer market has been marked by disorder this week. As the impact of last week's earthquake gradually subsides, the market has shown low acceptance of new price quotes in early April. End-user demand has dropped earlier than expected, further weakening market sentiment.

Between Tuesday and Wednesday, intensive price negotiations took place between buyers and wafer makers. Major players have begun delaying purchases to negotiate lower prices. Market prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N, may settle at RMB 1.25/piece, RMB 1.50/piece, and RMB 1.55/piece, respectively. Although as of today (April 9), mainstream trading prices have yet to meet buyer expectations, the emergence of some low-price deals suggests a loosening trend. These price levels may become the mainstream trading prices.

For p-type M10 wafers, trading prices range from RMB 1.05–1.25/piece. In China, weak demand has pushed prices down to RMB 1.05–1.15/piece, while export prices stay at RMB 1.25/piece with support from non-China orders.

Mainstream trading prices for M10 183N wafers hold at RMB 1.30/piece this week amid fierce price negotiations. However, as prices at RMB 1.25-1.28/piece have been traded, further price declines will be likely in the short term.

For larger-format wafers, trading prices stand still this week, with G12R at RMB 1.50–1.55/piece and G12N at RMB 1.55–1.60/piece.

Although the turning point arrived slightly earlier than expected, wafer prices have begun to shift as previously anticipated. With downstream cell prices also slipping, the short-term market outlook has become increasingly pessimistic.
 

Cell

P-type M10 cell prices this week:  

• Average price: RMB 0.31/W (sustained)

• Price range: RMB 0.29-0.31/W (slipped)

P-type cell demand will phase out after India's fiscal year-end installation rush, and overall prices may hover at a flat level.

N-type cell prices this week:  

M10:  

• Average price: RMB 0.31/W (sustained)

• Price range: RMB 0.305-0.32/W  

G12R:  

• Average price: RMB 0.33/W (slipped) 

• Price range: RMB 0.32-0.34/W  

G12:  

• Average price: RMB 0.31/W (sustained)

• Price range: RMB 0.30-0.31/W

Last week, tier-1 manufacturers raised n-type M10 cell prices to RMB 0.32/W, but only small volumes were sold as tier-2 and tier-3 makers did not follow, and module makers did not widely accept the higher price. This week, G12R cell prices have declined, mostly to RMB 0.33/W, with some manufacturers even selling at RMB 0.32/W.

Looking ahead, as policy-driven downstream demand is about to fade, cell prices are coming under pressure. With weak momentum for further increases and the installation rush ending, prices may continue to fall.
 

Module

This week, overall weighted average prices fell to RMB 0.745/W due to lower prices in distributed projects. New orders are pricing at RMB 0.70-0.78/W. As the peak period about to end, prices have started to drop to RMB 0.75-0.76/W. High-price deals are shrinking, and some sellers deliver previous orders or offer partial discounts.

Trading prices for ground-mounted projects remain stable, averaging RMB 0.7/W. Sellers are reluctant to accept low-priced RMB 0.61-0.65/W, only doing so in small volumes to maintain customer relationships. Contract prices for H2, however, may drop back to below RMB 0.65–0.68/W after the installation rush.

Module prices this week: 

182mm PERC glass-glass: 

• RMB 0.60-0.68/W

HJT:  

• RMB 0.75-0.855/W

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.75-0.78/W

BC:  

• N-TBC: RMB 0.80-0.85/W (new orders for distributed projects)

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.75-0.78/W

Non-China module prices stabilize this week:  

• TOPCon: USD 0.08-0.10/W

• HJT: USD 0.095-0.12/W

• PERC: USD 0.07-0.08/W

• N-TBC: USD 0.10-0.11/W

TOPCon module prices by region: 

Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific rise slightly by USD 0.09/W. In India, PERC and TOPCon modules have similar prices. Due to recent changes in Chinese cell prices, there has been little change this month. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are selling in bulk at USD 0.14–0.15/W.  

Modules are delivered at USD 0.09/W in Australia, with prices of distributed generation projects starting to rise by USD 0.09-0.10/W. Overall delivery prices in Europe remain at USD 0.085-0.1/W. H2 prices for ground-mounted projects sit at USD 0.085-0.087/W. 

The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.080-0.095/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.08-0.095/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.085-0.09/W, with previous orders delivered at USD 0.09-0.105/W.

US prices are being influenced by policy changes. As previously expected, imports from Southeast Asia have dropped slightly to USD 0.20–0.27/W, and the U.S. is paying closer attention to products from countries like Laos and Indonesia. This has increased the risks of importing to the U.S. and reduced buyer interest. To avoid risks, buyers are turning to U.S.-made modules, and prices for locally produced TOPCon modules are rising to USD 0.33–0.34/W.