Wafer, cell prices drop amid emerging supply-demand mismatch

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices this week stay flat due to fewer orders, with no new deliveries recently.

China-made polysilicon chunks: 

• Spot prices sit at RMB 38-42/kg. 

• Major manufacturers deliver at RMB 40-42/kg. 

• Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers deliver at RMB 39-40/kg. 

China-made granular polysilicon: 

• Primarily supplied by major manufacturers. 

• Prices land at RMB 37-39/kg.

In recent months, frequent US policy changes have disrupted polysilicon shipments, leading to a wait-and-see sentiment in the manufacturing segment, cautious downstream buying, and a slight drop in the average price to USD 19/kg.

Since last week, price quotes have started to fall, with mono-grade polysilicon priced at RMB 40–42/kg. However, ingot manufacturers are negotiating RMB 37–39/kg.

Prices are falling due to weaker demand, while ingot manufacturers still hold enough stock for 1-1.5 months. Their short-term strategy focuses on using up inventory to gain leverage in April-May, same as reported last week. Smaller firms with limited stock will have a small number of deals by late April, while large transactions still depend on major players' negotiations and are likely to be settled in early May, with ingot production levels for May not revised downward for now.

Polysilicon suppliers will keep prices stable and maintain April production at a level similar to March, with some makers cutting production. With demand weakening after the installation rush and hydropower season starting, moves by top polysilicon producers will be key.
 

Wafer

With demand dropping fast, wafer prices are sliding sharply, driven by falling cell prices. Prices across formats are weakening, and market sentiment is bleak.

This week, price negotiations continue between buyers and wafer makers.

Major players are still holding off on shipments to push prices lower. Deals have hit or dropped below last week's expectation. Bulk trades closed at RMB 1.20/piece for 183N, RMB 1.45/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.55/piece for 210N, and prices continue to fall.

For p-type M10 wafers, trading prices range from RMB 1.05–1.2/piece. In China, weak demand has pushed prices down to RMB 1.05–1.15/piece, while export prices reach up to RMB 1.2-1.25/piece with support from non-China orders.

For n-type wafers, price negotiations for M10 183N have been less intense this week, with mainstream trading prices falling to RMB 1.20/piece.

For larger formats, prices have dropped sharply this week. G12R is trading at RMB 1.40-1.45/piece, and G12N at RMB 1.55/piece.

Prices may keep falling, with trends by size becoming clear. 183N wafers may stay stable for now. 210RN cell prices dropped to RMB 0.28-0.29/W this Wednesday, and wafer prices could fall to RMB 1.35-1.40/piece based on cost estimates. 210N is also expected to trend toward RMB 1.50/piece. Overall, short-term wafer prices remain under pressure.
 

Cell

P-type (182P) cell prices this week:

• Average price: RMB 0.30/W (slipped)

• Price range: RMB 0.29–0.30/W (sustained)

China’s demand for p-type cells is mainly for small, scattered orders, with overall order volume sharply shrinking. Most of the current production is now being shipped to non-China markets, and significant price fluctuations are unlikely in the short term.

N-type cell prices this week:

183N:

• Average price: RMB 0.30/W (dropped)

• Price range: RMB 0.295–0.31/W (dropped)

210RN:

• Average price: RMB 0.29/W (dropped)

• Price range: RMB 0.29–0.31/W (dropped)

210N:

• Average price: RMB 0.31/W (sustained)

• Price range: RMB 0.30–0.31/W (sustained)

• High utilization rates for cells in April.

• Demand plunged ahead of China’s key policy deadlines, starting last week.

• Inventory buildup in the solar cell sector, resulting in an overall oversupply.

Oversupply pressure:

• This is reflected in the price declines of 183N and 210RN cells this week, especially 210RN, which accounts for a larger share of production and has seen a notable 12% price drop from last week.

• 210N cell prices hold steady due to more balanced supply-demand dynamics, but a future price drop is still likely.

As long as cell manufacturers do not significantly cut production and that demand remains sluggish, n-type cell prices may decline further by the end of April. A recovery in pricing is unlikely until May, when production may decrease in response to market conditions and the supply-demand imbalance could begin to ease. Whether the recent price declines will slow down also hinges on whether upstream and downstream sectors provide enough cost support.
 

Module

In early April, a turning point in the solar supply chain arrived earlier than expected. With the key policy effective dates of April 30 and May 31 approaching, market momentum begins to weaken. Module prices for distributed projects, previously rose to RMB 0.78–0.80/W, have sharply plunged since the beginning of April. Some smaller distributors, unable to sustain earlier inventory purchases, have begun shifting toward lower-price sales strategies.

As a result, supply chain price declines will be inevitable. For ground-mounted projects, module prices sit at RMB 0.67–0.71/W. For distributed projects, shrinking demand and fewer high-priced orders have pushed prices down to RMB 0.72–0.75/W.

Looking ahead to June and July, most shipments will be for orders signed earlier, with contract prices at RMB 0.63–0.68/W. Still, under the broader push for high-quality development, manufacturers are likely to negotiate with end-users to slow further price drops—potentially using blended pricing for earlier contracts or offering partial discounts.

Currently, module inventories remain at a healthy level. However, further demand will hinge on how China’s ground-mounted projects roll out in 2H25, as well as whether non-China demand holds steady as expected. Accordingly, price fluctuations in 2H25 are unlikely to experience sharp rises or steep declines as seen in the past.

Module prices this week:

182mm PERC glass-glass:

• RMB 0.62–0.70/W

HJT:

• RMB 0.76-0.855/W 

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.75-0.79/W

• Some previous low-priced orders are still delivered at RMB 0.71/W

BC:   

• N-TBC: RMB 0.80-0.83/W (new orders for distributed projects) 

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.80/W (fewer deliveries due to high prices)

Non-China module prices stabilize this week:

• TOPCon: USD 0.08- 0.095/W 

• HJT: USD 0.095-0.12/W 

• PERC: USD 0.07-0.08/W 

• N-TBC: USD 0.10-0.11/W

TOPCon module prices by region:  

Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific come in at USD 0.085-0.09/W. In India, PERC and TOPCon modules have similar prices. Due to recent changes in Chinese cell prices, there has been little change this month. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are selling in bulk at USD 0.14–0.15/W. 

Modules are delivered at USD 0.09/W in Australia, with prices for distributed projects starting to rise by USD 0.09-0.10/W. Overall delivery prices in Europe remain at USD 0.085-0.1/W, with spot prices for some orders slightly climbing. H2 prices for ground-mounted projects sit at USD 0.08-0.085/W.  

The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.08-0.09/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.085-0.09/W.

US prices are impacted by policy changes. Manufacturers are now in a 90-day window and are rushing shipments of stocked products, leading to a slight upward price trend, nearly USD 0.27–0.30/W (DDP). To avoid potential risks, there is a growing number of US module manufacturers raising their quotes, with some even approaching USD 0.40/W (DDP).