PV supply chain price trend for 2024

Susceptible to market demand, production plans, and socioeconomic factors, prices across the PV supply chain have fluctuated since late 2023, a pivotal period of p-type to n-type technology transition. The following paragraphs analyze the short and long- term price trends in the first quarter, the first half, and the second half of 2024.  
 

Polysilicon

In the first half of 2024, polysilicon prices will be largely subject to utilization rates of the ingot segment. During the Lunar New Year holiday in February, ingot utilization rates of manufacturers (including leading ones) sustained and even rose marginally, underpinning polysilicon prices. In addition to that is surging n-type wafer production and market share, which has put high-quality, affordable polysilicon in dire demand. Following the slight rebound in February may be a temporary plateau, preceding minor declines in the second quarter. Overall, significant price drops are unlikely. In non-China markets, prices will be relatively stable during the late first and second quarters.     

From an annual perspective, polysilicon prices will sit higher than the historical low of RMB 55-58/kg. Decreases at the year’s end will be limited, given little room for electricity consumption during polysilicon production to reduce further and rising electricity costs and power rationing in some parts of China pushing up production costs. Overall, prices in China will remain stable from the second quarter toward the year end, with narrow rallies emerging at the end of the year due to higher production costs. Meanwhile, non-China markets will see a steady price trend throughout the year, with little probability of significant changes.


 

Wafer

Manufacturers maintained production during the Lunar New Year holiday as previously planned. M10 p-type and n-type wafers experienced price hikes due to tight supply, while G12 ones saw a steady price trend in a balanced supply-demand environment. After the holiday, manufacturers raised production plans for the end of first quarter, given signs of recovery in global demand in the first quarter. Risks are building as manufacturers raise utilization rates to secure market share or attain shipment targets despite accumulating wafer inventory. Against this backdrop, as well as relatively high polysilicon prices and pressures from downstream sectors, wafer prices could fall.  

In the mid and long-term future, prices will stabilize after collapsing and approaching the break-even point of various manufacturers. Violent price fluctuations, as seen in 2023, will be less likely. Noteworthily, power rationing and equipment maintenance will return in the third quarter of this year, pushing prices slightly higher. For M10 p-type and n-type wafers, prices will rise from the second quarter to the end of the third. G12 p-type wafers will see prices step on a mild increase and stabilize in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, prices for G12 n-type wafers will remain strong throughout the year.


 

Cell

Prices for M10 PERC cells sit higher during late 2023 and early 2024 due to sustained demand in non-China markets yet fewer suppliers as manufacturers reduce PERC production. Meantime, G12 PERC prices stand firmly at higher levels. Overall, trading prices for both will stay above USD 0.052/W in the first half of this year. For TOPCon cells, prices will stabilize at USD 0.062-0.065/W in the first two quarters. Overall, prices are subject to future PERC production cuts. If reduced more than expected, extended price hikes are likely but final prices all hinge on the acceptance of module makers.

The cell sector has hit a downturn amid severe oversupply, price jumps, and the p-n transition in 2024, where outdated PERC lines retire and new TOPCon manufacturers suspend expansion projects due to unprofitability. Having said that, cell prices will see little change as prices in other sectors are steady, with increases during the regular high season from the late second quarter to the third. The gap between PERC and TOPCon cell prices will reach USD 0.01-0.012/W in the second half of the year.  

The market share of PERC cells will shrink from 60% in 2023 to 25% this year and single digit in 2025. After 2024, manufacturers can hardly profit from PERC cells. After 2026, PERC cells will become a more expensive special-spec product.


 

Module

In China, module prices will remain flat from the late first quarter to the end of the second. PERC module prices will sit at USD 0.11-0.12/W and TOPCon at USD 0.12-0.13/W. For HJT modules, prices will come in at USD 0.146-0.148/W due to cost reduction constraints and still immature market demand.

Europe will accelerate inventory depletion and imports during the end of the Lunar New Year holiday and the first quarter, given surging freight rates due to the Red Sea crisis. From the late first quarter to the end of the first half of the year, module price declines on the European spot market may slow down, even inch up due to price rebounds in upstream sectors or demand recovery. Yet, overall increases are still subject to end user acceptance.

In the midst of an industry slump, most manufacturers are well-prepared for price wars. Despite signs of demand recovery emerging in the first quarter and voices of price hikes, the actual outcome is subject to end-user acceptance. Considering stronger demand in China and Europe during the regular peak season in the second and third quarters, some module makers aim to improve profitability by mid-year. However, price drops are likely during a regular low season from the late third to the fourth quarter.