Chinese module exports down 4% MoM, led by Europe and Asia-Pacific

China exported 16.53 GW of modules in September, down 12% MoM from 18.76 GW and 16% YoY from 19.79 GW, according to InfoLink’s customs data. China has exported 54.9 GW of modules in Q3, down 15% QoQ from 64.25 GW but up 6% YoY from 51.58 GW. China has accumulated 186.77 GW of module exports from January to September, up 18% YoY from 157.65 GW.

As of September, the top five largest markets importing Chinese modules are, by order, the Netherlands, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, India, and Spain, with monthly imports accounting for 44% of the global total. Europe and the Asia-Pacific saw the sharpest dips, the Americas posted slight growth, and the Middle East and Africa saw minor slips in imports.


 

Europe

Europe imported 6.8 GW of modules from China in September, down 17% MoM from 8.21 GW and down 11% YoY from 7.64 GW. Europe has imported 23.53 GW of modules in Q3, down 23% QoQ from 30.47 GW but up 3% YoY from 22.92 GW. Europe has accumulated 77.7 GW of module imports from January to September, down 9% YoY from 85.33 GW.

Excess solar power generated in Europe during summer in Q3 led to an imbalance between supply and demand, impacting power producers’ short-term profits. Moreover, PV installations slowed during the summer vacation. Germany may face a two-consecutive-year economic recession. Political opposition in France impacts budget allocation, making it challenging for either country to introduce demand-stimulating policies in the short term. Other countries have yet to roll out any policy incentives. With project installations for Q4 likely wrapping up by mid-to-late November, Europe may see negative growth this year.

Outlook for 2025:

Delayed ground-mounted projects in Spain are expected to be installed in the first half of 2025, along with rising demand from emerging Eastern European markets, likely boosting demand. If other major countries increasingly strengthen their PV developments, Europe may see demand growth in 2025.


 

Asia–Pacific

The Asia-Pacific imported 3.86 GW of modules from China in September, down 17% MoM from 4.63 GW and down 45% YoY from 6.98 GW. China exported 13.65 GW of modules to the region in Q3, down 13% QoQ from 15.74 GW and down 8% YoY from 14.8 GW. The region has imported 54.13 GW of modules from January to September, up 62% YoY from 33.39 GW.

India remains the largest market of Chinese module exports in the Asia-Pacific, importing 1.1 GW in September, down 6% MoM from 1.17 GW. India has imported 14.11 GW of Chinese modules from January to September.

Recently, India has continued to be affected by port congestion and tight space availability, leading to longer deliveries. In July 2024, the Indian government released supplementary details for the PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana and introduced an incentive mechanism, likely attracting more local distributors to participate in the solar market and boost demand. However, given that the Indian government has yet to release specific exemptions for ALMM and the domestic module capacity is growing gradually, India's future demand for imported modules may turn gloomy.

Pakistan, previously ranked first or second importers, imported 0.29 GW of Chinese modules in September, down 73% MoM from 1.07 GW, accumulating 14.6 GW from January to September. The sharp decline in imports in September was mainly due to the off-season. Moreover, Pakistan had already imported considerable amount of Chinese modules this year, resulting in rising inventory levels among local distributors, which compressed imports for September and even Q4. Given the falling Pakistan demand, the overall import volume of Chinese modules in Asia-Pacific will likely drop in Q4.


 

The Americas

The Americas imported 2.66 GW of modules from China in September, a 4% increase from 2.55 GW in August and a 3% decrease from 2.74 GW last September. Total imports for Q3 reached 7.56 GW, down 3% from 7.76 GW in Q2 and 2% lower than 7.68 GW in Q3 of the previous year. From January to September, imports totaled 24.31 GW, a 10% increase over 22.04 GW in the same period last year.

In September, Brazil accounted for the largest share of Chinese module imports in the Americas, with 1.66 GW imported. This was a 9% increase from August’s 1.53 GW, representing 62% of the region's total imports. From January to September, Brazil imported a total of 16.72 GW of Chinese modules.

Brazil implemented a new round of tariff rate quota from July 2024 to June 2025, reduced the tax-free quota to USD 1.01 billion. From July to September, Brazil imported modules worth USD 535 million, using up 53% of the total. Brazil has introduced policies to support distributed projects since the second half of this year. Recently, ANEEL triggered the "red flag" warning about rising traditional power costs, which could increase electricity prices and boost interest in PV installations. With limited local production, Brazil’s tax-free import quotas will have minimal impact on Chinese module imports in the short term.


 

The Middle East and Africa

The Middle East imported 2.43 GW of modules from China in September, a 2% decrease from 2.49 GW in August and a 31% increase from 1.85 GW last September. Total imports for Q3 reached 7.43 GW, down 2% from 7.59 GW in Q2 and 68% YoY higher than 4.42 GW. From January to September, imports totaled 22.89 GW, a 122% increase over 10.32 GW in the same period last year.

Among countries in the region, Saudi Arabia accounts for the largest share, importing 1.45 GW of Chinese modules in September, up 12% from August’s 1.3 GW, accounting for 60% of the region’s total imports. The country has imported 12.9 GW of modules from China during the January-September period. The Saudi government issued many utility-scale tenders, strengthening its push for PV development. Starting this year, it aims to tender at least 20 GW of renewable projects annually, which could boost PV growth. The direction of local manufacturing policies will need to be monitored, but we remain optimistic about Saudi Arabia's long-term demand for PV modules.


 

Africa imported 0.79 GW of modules from China in September, a 9% decrease from 0.87 GW in August and a 36% increase from 0.58 GW of last September. Total imports for Q3 reached 2.74 GW, up 2% from 2.7 GW in Q2 and 56% higher than 1.76 GW in last Q3. From January to September, imports totaled 7.74 GW, an 18% increase over 6.58 GW in the same period last year.

Among African countries, South Africa accounts for the largest share, importing 229 MW of modules in September, down 37% from 365 MW in the previous month, accounting for 29% of the region’s total imports. South Africa has imported 2.69 GW of modules during the January-September period. South Africa imposed a 10% tariff on imported modules in June, leading to higher project costs. Since August, import volumes have decreased. If grid congestion and infrastructure issues are not resolved, the country’s demand for modules will remain weak through the rest of this year and next.


 

Pakistan’s imports saw a significant drop in September, while other markets showed no significant changes. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the European market will remain weak due to reduced demand and the traditional off-season. In the Asia-Pacific region, growth will be limited as India hasn’t lifted ALMM list exemptions, and Pakistan faces stockpiling issues. In the Americas, attention will be on Brazil’s supportive policies and the use of its tax-free import quotas.

Overall, InfoLink expects limited growth, with the PV market likely staying weak and potentially continuing into the first quarter of next year. Market demand remains pessimistic.