Chinese module exports up 5% MoM despite declines in the Americas and Middle East

China exported 17.34 GW of modules in October, up nearly 5% MoM from 16.53 GW and up 5% YoY from 16.45 GW, according to InfoLink’s customs data. China exported 204.11 GW of modules from January to October, up 17% YoY from 174.11 GW.

In October, the top five largest markets importing Chinese modules were, in order, the Netherlands, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Spain, and India, with monthly imports accounting for 42% of the global total, nearly on par with September's ranking. Regionally, Africa experienced the most significant growth, while Europe and the Asia-Pacific regions also saw higher shipment volumes. In contrast, imports in the Americas and the Middle East slightly declined.


 

Europe

Europe imported 7 GW of Chinese modules in October, up 3% MoM from 6.8 GW and up 12% YoY from 6.23 GW. Europe accumulated 84.67 GW of module imports from January to October, down 8% YoY from 91.56 GW.

Excluding the Netherlands, the largest European importer, Spain had the highest demand in October, with a 61% MoM growth in imports. Greece, Portugal, and Italy also saw rising import volumes, while Germany, France, the UK, and Poland experienced declines to varying degrees.

The European market saw no evident changes in September and October amid economic stagnation, low returns on electricity generation, and a slowdown in installation progress. Although October's import volume increased slightly by 3% MoM, Europe maintained September's shipment levels. Yet, the drop was notable compared to the average monthly shipments of 8.4 GW in July and August. Demand may weaken further as Europe enters the Christmas holiday off-season in December. By early November, manufacturers had already started more substantial sell-offs. Considering the 101.48 GW shipped to Europe in 2023, export volume to Europe are likely to contract in 2024.


 

Asia-Pacific

The Asia-Pacific imported 4.34 GW of modules from China in October, up 13% MoM from 3.86 GW and down 26% YoY from 5.8 GW. The region has imported 58.47 GW of modules from January to October, up 49% YoY from 39.28 GW.

Japan, Australia, Uzbekistan, Thailand, and the Philippines drove growth in Asia’s import volumes in October, while declines were seen in India and Pakistan, previously the largest Asia-Pacific importers of Chinese modules. India imported 0.84 GW of Chinese modules in October, down 23% MoM from 1.1 GW, accumulating 15 GW from January to October. Despite earlier speculation that India’s Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) might include Chinese modules, the updated list released on August 28 primarily featured Indian manufacturers. The sole foreign inclusion was the Indian subsidiary of a U.S. manufacturer, with most of its registered products manufactured locally. As India continues to scale its domestic production and reduce demand for imported modules, the likelihood of Chinese modules being included in the ALMM is decreasing.

Pakistan imported 258 MW of Chinese modules in October, down 10% MoM from 287 MW, accumulating 14.85 GW from January to October. The significant import volumes in the first half of the year led to rising inventory levels among local distributors and a sharp decline in imports starting from September. However, based on the data from the end of 2023, Pakistan’s imports may rebound in November and December to offset the previous shortfall. Moreover, as China's export rebate adjustment takes effect in December, buyers may be incentivized to ramp up imports. On the other hand, potential adjustments to the net metering tariffs for PV grid connections could lead to a downward revision of the demand forecast for 2025.


 

The Americas

The Americas imported 2.61 GW of modules from China in October, down 2% MoM from 2.66 GW and down 3% YoY from 2.74 GW in last October. From January to October, cumulative shipments to the Americas reached around 26.92 GW, representing a 10% YoY increase from 24.44 GW.

In October, Brazil accounted for the largest share of Chinese module imports in the Americas, with 1.7 GW imported in total, up 2% MoM from 1.66 GW, representing 65% of the region's total imports. From January to October, Brazil imported a total of 18.42 GW of Chinese modules.

Since Brazil implemented the second phase of its tariff rate quota in July 2024 (effective from July 2024 to June 2025), monthly imports have stabilized at around 1.5 to 1.7 GW. From July to October, Brazil imported modules worth USD 722 million, using up 71% of the total of USD 1.01 billion. If this pace continues in November and December, the quota will likely be exhausted by year-end. On November 11, Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) announced an increase in tariffs on imports exceeding the duty-free quota, raising the rate from 9.6% to 25%, which may negatively impact Brazil’s module demand in 2025.


 

The Middle East and Africa

The Middle East imported 2.23 GW of modules from China in October, an 8% MoM decrease from 2.43 GW and a 50% increase YoY from 1.49 GW last October. The region accumulated 25.12 GW from January to October, a YoY 113% increase from 11.81 GW.

Among the countries in the region, Saudi Arabia accounted for the largest share, importing 1.5 GW of Chinese modules in October, up 3% MoM 1.45 GW, accounting for 67% of the region’s total imports. The country imported 14.4 GW of modules from China during the January-October period. Module demand in Saudi Arabia depends mainly on government tenders. From this year, at least 20 GW of renewable energy projects, led by PV, will be tendered annually, with long-term demand set to grow steadily.


 

Africa imported 1.19 GW of modules from China in October,  up 51% MoM from 0.79 GW and up 165% YoY from 0.45 GW last October. The region accumulated 8.93 GW from January to October, a 27% increase from 7.02 GW.

Among African countries, South Africa accounted for the largest share, importing 568 MW of modules in October, up 148% Mom from 229 MW, accounting for 48% of the region’s total imports. South Africa imported 3.26 GW of modules from January to October. Despite imposing a 10% tariff on imported modules in June, the country still relies on imports due to limited local production, with recent demand driven by local ground-mounted projects.


 

Global module imports in October had no significant changes, with slight increases or decreases compared to September. Europe's holiday off-season in Q4, India's lower demand, high inventories of Pakistan’s distributors, and Brazil nearing its duty-free import limit will reduce China's Q4 exports, limiting annual growth.