Global module shipment ranking 1H24: A change in top leads

The shipment data for this ranking was based on InfoLink’s database and surveys conducted with manufacturers. If the statistics for certain manufacturers are not fully accounted for, the shipment data is cross-verified using output and inventory estimates from individual manufacturers’ operations and InfoLink's statistics. Additionally, data statistics start from 100 MW, and manufacturers with shipment volumes differing by no more than 5% will be ranked equally. The final data is subject to the companies’ published data.


 

Looking by quarter, the second quarter posted 27% growth compared to the first quarter, a slight decline in YoY growth. Global demand growth slowed this year, with overseas markets impacted by policy changes and geopolitical instability. The wait-and-see mode among end users persists into the third quarter.
 

High consolidation among top 4

According to InfoLink’ statistics, the top 10 shipped around 226 GW of modules in the first half of this year, up 40% YoY. The annual growth rate has begun to narrow and the rapid growth momentum saw in the first half of 2023 is no longer present.

Jinko, JA Solar, Trina, and Longi secured the top four positions with a slight change in their rankings. Since 2019, these vertically integrated companies have sustained at the top four positions, with the big getting bigger. Compared to the manufacturers ranked behind, there is a significant gap in shipment volumes, with the top 4 accounting for 63% of the total volume of the top 10.

Competition among manufacturers in the second tier is very intense, with noticeable reshuffle among the mid-range companies. The order is Tongwei, Astronergy, and Canadian Solar, with GCL and DAS Solar tied for eighth place, followed by Risen. From fifth to eighth place, the minimum shipment volume reached 10 GW.

Manufacturers outside of the ranking are DMEGC, Yingli, Seraphim, First Solar, and Suntech, with shipment volume reaching beyond 5 GW each. 

Among non-Chinese manufacturers. Hanwha Q-Cells’ shipment volume continued to decline, dropping out of the top 10 list in 2023. First Solar, which had been on the list in the past years, also fell out of the ranking this year, and was replaced by new entrants Tongwei and DAS Solar, as well as and established company GCL.

Rationale behind is that overseas manufacturers are now focusing on expanding into non-China markets. Companies like First Solar and Hanwha are primarily targeting the US market, while Indian manufacturers mainly focus on the domestic market. For now, these manufacturers have not significantly increased their production volumes due to factors such as incomplete capacity ramp-up, technology, and equipment adjustment capabilities.
 

Ratio of shipment to domestic market on the rise

For Chinese manufacturers, domestic demand growth remains relatively stable. As a result, established brands that have re-entered the rankings, as well as new players and cross-industry entrants, account for a larger share in the domestic market, and they continued to expand their market share domestically in the first half, providing a certain level of support for their shipment volumes.

Overseas shipments, however, have been affected by policy fluctuations, geopolitical risks, and inventory accumulation. In the first half of 2022, the average overseas shipment proportion for the top 10 manufacturers was about 65%, dropping to 47% in the same period in 2023, and further to around 44% in 2024. This downward trend has been observed for three consecutive years.
 

Large format products dominate shipments

The shipment data of the top 10 shows that PERC products account for about 27-28% of the total volume, of which the shipment ratio of 182-182.2*182mm-199mm is around 70:30, with other formats sitting at nearly 0%.

N-type TOPCon module shipments account for nearly 70% of the total. Specifically, the shipment ratio of 182-182.2*182mm-199mm and 182*210mm and 210*210mm sizes is about 80% to 20%, with the 182*210mm and 210*210mm accounting for around 10% and 8%, respectively.

HJT and xBC products account for 1% and 4% of the total shipment of the top 10, respectively.

It's worth noting that the module shipment trend this time mirrors that of cells, with near-rectangular formats dominating the majority of shipments in the first half. This includes both PERC and TOPCon, which together account for approximately 64% of the total. The shipment volume for TOPCon rectangular size (182-182.2*182mm-199mm) is gradually increasing, with the 182*199mm and 182*210mm formats making up about 6% and 7% of the total, respectively.
 

Shipment targets revise down for 2024

Compared to the shipment targets dated January, and after re-evaluating manufacturers' strategies, it can be observed that some manufacturers have revised down their shipment targets in the middle of this year. Compared to the initial plan of 700 GW in total, the current statistics show a range of 555-611 GW, with an average achievement rate of about 42%. Notably, the penetration rates of n-type, HJT, and BC products have accelerated; some manufacturers having already met the proportion outlined in their initial plans, with the average proportion of new products reaching 71%

With demand growth slowing down and capacity two times more than demand, the industry landscape might change again.

In last year’s ranking article, InfoLink stated that product power output, quality, and efficiency performance will be key factors under a homogeneous competition. This will remain the dominant theme in the industry’s development. Amid intensified competition, quality will become the top priority. End customers in China and abroad are increasingly focusing on quality inspection, with some domestic end users are actively discussing changing scoring mechanisms.

Manufacturers’ overseas strategics is a key focus this year. With the rise of anti-globalization movement, diversifying overseas manufacturing locations will test manufacturers' operational and management capabilities. In particular, the regulations on the use of materials put traceability in the spotlight, with Europe now joining the U.S. in discussions on related issues. How manufacturers position themselves early and make quick decisions will be an opportunity for them to stand out. The technological and channel advantages of the top 10 manufacturers, along with resource consolidation and restructuring, may still result in changes among the top-listed manufacturers.