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| Author | Alan Tu |
| Updated | October 09, 2024 |
The Renewable Energy India Expo returned for the 17th edition on Oct. 3 to 5 in New Delhi, attracting more than 800 businesses and 40,000 participants across solar, wind, and energy storage sectors. Although exhibitors from China decreased this year due to policy impact, local manufacturers and investors participated actively this year. InfoLink provides insights of the latest market trends.
India’s solar demand has surged in recent years due to strong policy push and huge electricity demand. India set an installation target of 500 GW for 2030, mainly focusing on PV. The government published the National Energy Plan (NEP), aiming to achieve 186 GW of installed solar capacity by 2026-2027, and 179 GW of new solar additions by 2027-2032, accumulating 365 GW of installed solar capacity. The ambitious target reflects India's strong commitment to developing clean energy while boosting demands for the local supply chain.
Most manufacturers displayed n-type TOPCon and HJT modules this year, indicating a shift to higher efficiency n-type technology. Different from last year, more manufacturers labeled Domestic Content Requirement (DCR) on their modules and those in the ALMM list, responding to the Indian government’s support for local production. These technologies highlight Indian companies' awareness of global trends and their efforts to enhance product efficiency and meet market policies.
It’s worth noting that several manufacturers displayed modules in G12R (182*210mm) format this year, reflecting that Indian manufacturers have observed China’s size trend and started following suit.
During the exhibition, key discussions focused on the anti-dumping duty on aluminum frames and the inclusion of cells in the ALMM List starting in 2026. On September 27, India‘s Ministry of Finance announced an anti-dumping duty on anodized aluminum frames from China’s low-priced imports to protect local manufacturers. Additionally, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) proposed that from April 1, 2026, all government projects must use modules and cells listed in the ALMM list. This policy aims to boost local manufacturing, increase the market share of domestic products, and limit exports from Chinese cell companies.
Although policies may create supply chain uncertainty, many local project stakeholders believe the "change in law" clause of Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) can help manage costs. This clause allows developers to seek compensation when policies change, ensuring project viability. Thus, even with rising costs due to policy shifts, developers can secure returns, which explains their ongoing optimism about the market.
The Indian government approved the PLI scheme in 2021, providing huge incentives for local high-efficiency module manufacturing. The scheme accumulates capacity of 48.3 GW in the first two auctions and will complete construction within 3 to 5 years.
According to InfoLink statistics, nameplate module capacity under planning is expected to reach 70 GW by the end of 2024. Many cell expansion plans also emerged in the recent two years. Although the expansion timeline is long, the new capacity can supply certain local cell demand when it emerges, whereas wafer expansion plans are still very few. However, local makers face challenges including labor shortage, insufficient manufacturing experience among some makers, China visa and equipment export barriers, and longer time to bring capacity online than other markets. Meanwhile, the ratio of expansion varies largely among most manufacturers, with vast volume of module expansion plans and fewer cell ones.
Due to the longer depreciation cycles compared to China, manufacturers generally avoid making easy decisions to upgrade production lines. As a compromise, most manufacturers are operating 10 BB production lines to produce both PERC and TOPCon. This approach does not require significant investments while still meeting market demand for technology pathways.
India's PV market is set for strong growth, driven by rising demand and government support. Utility-scale ground-mounted plants are the main drivers, with distributed projects gaining traction through government initiatives. Despite challenges, the long-term outlook is bright. The government promotes local manufacturing and reduces import reliance, creating a balanced and favorable environment for domestic manufacturers and developers.
With more efficient modules and improved local manufacturing, India is becoming a major player in the global PV industry. Continued policy support will help local companies grow their international market share.
The 2024 REI showcased India's PV market trends and allowed industry players to connect. As policies, technology, and demand evolve, India’s PV market will continue to thrive.
The following graph provides formats and a snapshot of exhibits from REI 2024 :
InfoLink Consulting is excited to announce the release of "PV Bill of Material Market Report" that will help businesses and stakeholders navigate geopolitical risks and drive informed decision-making with comprehensive market information and in-depth analysis on BOMs of the PV supply chain.
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