PV cell technology development driven by demand

PV technology has focused on improving efficiency, cutting costs, and meeting regulations. PERC has dominated the market over the past years due to its cost-effectiveness. However, with n-type technology driving efficiency up and costs down, n-type products will take over 70% of the market this year.

At present, TOPCon, HJT, and xBC are the main cell technology routes. TOPCon gained recognition for its high efficiency and lower costs. HJT, despite higher investment and costs, is valued for its low carbon footprint. xBC, known for its aesthetics and efficiency, emerged in 2023.
 

Challenges of oversupply and cost pressure

The biggest challenge facing the PV market now is oversupply. Rapid growth in demand led to excessive expansion in the previous years, causing ongoing losses. According to InfoLink’s database, global PV demand will reach 470-530 GW in 2024, while production capacities for polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules all exceed 1,100 GW. In this oversupplied market, staying ahead in technology is crucial for leading manufacturers to remain competitive.

Thanks to the wide adoption of LECO technology, leading TOPCon manufacturers have achieved a mass production efficiency of over 25%. Economies of scale and process optimization have further reduced production costs, making TOPCon the mainstream technology in the market. However, HJT's high production costs still limit its wide adoption.

After rapid improvements in cell size and efficiency, mainstream PV products have stabilized. With demand needing to grow to absorb the past two years' over-expansion, the next big technological leap in PV cells is unlikely to happen soon. TOPCon cells will continue to dominate the market in the next five years.


 

High efficiency and low-carbon footprint

With increasing environmental sustainability awareness, demand for low-carbon footprint and high-efficiency products will grow further, especially in the European and US markets, where government regulations related to carbon emissions have kept low-carbon footprint solutions in the spotlight.

Despite PERC technology’s dominance in the market over the past few years, its market share is gradually being challenged by HJT and TOPCon technologies, as carbon emission standards tighten. In particular, in European markets where low-carbon footprints are required, HJT technology is gaining favor due to its relatively lower carbon footprint.
 

Technical divergence facilitates precise end-use application

Various PV cell technologies demonstrate unique market value in end-use applications. TOPCon cells, with their high-conversion efficiency and stable performance, are well-suited for utility-scale ground-mounted power plants that aim to maximize energy output on vast lands, making them more cost-effective in terms of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE).

Meanwhile, HJT cells stand out in more demanding industrial facilities and environmental projects due to their excellence in low-carbon emissions and extreme environments. Moreover, xBC cells, known for their high-conversion efficiency and aesthetics, have become the ideal option for high-end residential, private, and commercial buildings where customers prioritize advanced technology and design. These differentiated applications meet various needs among end markets and boost ongoing innovation in PV technology.
 

Cell technology outlook

This year, TOPCon and HJT technologies have continued to expand their market share, replacing p-type technology as the market mainstream. The global PV market will continue progressing in the next few years, driven by technological innovation and policy support. TOPCon and HJT technologies will play increasingly important roles, while the rising xBC technology will inject new energy into the high-end residential market. The competitive landscape of PV technology will evolve with changing market demands, providing strong technical support for the global energy transition.

Overall, the future of global PV technology is full of opportunities and challenges. Technologies that can achieve breakthroughs in efficiency, low-carbon footprint, and cost control will gain a competitive edge in the market. For companies, tracking market dynamics and keeping up with technological trends will be crucial to maintaining competitiveness, with innovation remaining the core driver of sustainable development in the PV industry.