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|---|---|
| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | July 19, 2023 |
Polysilicon
There is a notable reduction in previously accumulated spot inventory, effectively relieving pressure on the polysilicon sector. The progress of monthly production capacity addition varies among manufacturers. Overall, monthly production capacity decreases. Utilization rates rebound, given the stockpiling strategies of some buyers in the past and stronger inelastic demand from the ingot segment. Meantime, new ingot production capacity and more furnaces come online. Against these backdrops, polysilicon manufacturers witness a notable change in the sales environment.
Previously, prices reached the bottom faster than expected, approaching the break-even point. Doubled with market changes this month, trading prices of mono-grade polysilicon retrace from RMB 60-65/kg to RMB 63-68/kg. Any adjustment in pricing mechanism may lead to re-negotiations with buyers as many leading manufacturers are currently delivering orders.
In the third quarter, the polysilicon sector faces more uncertainties, such as power rationing, production restrictions, slower-than-expected commissioning progress, and other uncontrollable events. There will be limited increases in monthly polysilicon production capacity. The market prefers cheaper, good-quality polysilicon, potentially resulting in temporary shortages.
Wafer
Little changed this week, trading prices sit at RMB 2.8/piece for M10 p-type wafers and RMB 3.75/piece for G12 ones, with the former maintaining a superior price-performance ratio per watt. For n-type wafers, trading prices come in mostly at RMB 2.9/piece as last week.
Wafer prices show divergent trends and can hardly dip further as they near the break-even point. Meanwhile, the cell sector enjoys satisfactory profits. The tendency of average profit distribution opens the possibility of wafer price rallies.
Despite efficient depletion, wafer inventory remains at a healthy level. However, manufacturers keep high utilization rates in July, pushing up output. As a result, the risk persists of inventory accumulating. An oversupply is very likely, potentially leading to future price declines. Upstream manufacturers will differentiate based on prices and quality while continue adjusting utilization rates to regulate prices and inventory levels.
Cell
PERC cell supply is steady. Most expansion projects this year are n-type cell production capacities. TOPCon production capacity comes online slower than expected, prolonging equipment installation and debugging process. Fewer cells are available for external sales, as some cell manufacturers reserve more capacity for in-house usage. The growth of module production capacity boosts demand for the mainstream product, M10 PERC cells.
This week, trading prices advance marginally, coming in mostly at RMB 0.73/W for M10 cells while sustaining at RMB 0.72/W for G12 ones. For M10 TOPCon cells, prices stabilize at RMB 0.79/W. N-type cell prices sustain RMB 0.06/W higher than p-type ones. Also affected by wafer price declines, the few suppliers of G12 HJT cells see prices drop to RMB 0.9/W.
Prices of M10 PERC cells are relatively low but show a slight rebound. Module makers purchase proactively to attain competitive shipment targets for the third and fourth quarters. Some module makers seek to consume their high-priced cell inventory. Current cell prices allow them to average down the cost. However, module makers take orders at lower and lower prices, thus have little cost durability for cells. Therefore, cell manufacturers will continue feeling price pressure from module makers.
Module
Module prices keep falling but sustain less decrease this week. Tier-1 module makers take orders for PERC glass-backsheet modules at RMB 1.3-1.35/W. Most module makers keep prices unchanged, while some cut to RMB 1.28-1.3/W upon publishing semiannual financial reports and competition for market share in the second half of 2023. Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers continue offering lower price quotes at RMB 1.25-1.28/W this week. Some take orders at prices lower than RMB 1.25/W, while some deliver previous orders in the high-price range around RMB 1.4/W.
The upward trend in upstream prices is evident. A few manufacturers consider raising distribution prices by RMB 0.01-0.02/W. Their final decisions hinge on future demand, which is still tepid despite some signs of recovery in July. There will be further price cuts in the long run, and price hikes are not likely, as module makers contend for orders while demand is still on the mend.
In line with recent tenders, module makers take orders for August at slightly lower prices. Tier-1 module makers managed to keep prices at RMB 1.28/W. Already having little profit margin due to high production costs, module makers can hardly cut prices further. Demand and the impact of power rationing are worthy of note in the third quarter. Brief rallies are possible.
In non-China markets, prices stay on a slow decline this week. Chinese exporters deliver products at USD 0.165-0.185/W (FOB). In Europe, spot prices come in at EUR 0.165-0.175/W Europe, with modules with black backsheet possessing a premium of EUR 0.02-0.025/W. More modules traded in the low-price range of EUR 0.15-0.16/W as some manufacturers keep selling off inventory. Once in a blue moon, prices in Europe are lower than in the Asia-Pacific market, where prices linger at USD 0.165-0.18/W.
For locally manufactured modules, prices stabilize for the time being. In the U.S., prices will sustain in the third quarter of the year, but distribution prices of Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers drag down the low-price range. For India-made modules, prices hold steady for now. Affected by price fluctuation in the U.S., prices for China-made module exports to India drop to USD 0.16-0.17/W, and USD 0.21-0.25/W for module exports from Southeast Asia.
The gap between prices for p-type and n-type modules will narrow more slowly this year as PERC module prices drop. Non-China markets experienced more significant fluctuation, mainly attributed to price declines for PERC modules and inventory in Europe.
Module makers recently deliver G12 HJT modules at RMB 1.5-1.6/W in China and USD 0.197-0.22/W in non-China markets.
M10 TOPCon module prices remain at RMB 1.28-1.5/W this week. In non-China markets, prices hold steady at USD 0.18-0.21/W, with a premium of USD 0.01-0.015/W against prices for PERC modules.