Polysilicon continues gains while module prices stall

Polysilicon

Mono-grade polysilicon prices continue rising, with mainstream prices reaching RMB 70-73/kg and average prices increasing by 2.8% this week. Some manufacturers delivering orders previously signed see supply running short. Postponements keep occurring. While mono-grade polysilicon prices hike, spot prices of granular polysilicon rally mildly due to temporary supply-demand mismatch.

Production plans and inventory draws of module makers have increasingly huge impacts on the other three sectors. Ｍarket sentiment remains vigorous, but all sectors worry about price acceptance and inventory draws of end users. In an optimistic scenario, where module makers increase production plans in the second half of this year, the polysilicon sector will see prices advance, and profits recover further. Still, the key lies in module price trend and acceptance of every sector for upstream prices.

Wafer

After cell manufacturers accepted the price adjustments last week, wafer trading prices advance to the official pricings this week, coming in at RMB 3.15/piece for M10 wafers and RMB 4.2/piece for G12 ones. For now, trading prices per watt of the two are the same. N-type M10 wafers with a thickness of 130μm are traded at RMB 3.26/piece.

Cell manufacturers release n-type capacity successively in recent months. Regardless of the supply-demand mismatch between p-type and n-type cells, diverse wafer formats affecting purchasing and selling efficiency, power rationing, and potential quartz crucible shortage in the fourth quarter, manufacturers still purchase wafers actively, keeping wafer supply tight.

The polysilicon price hike and handsome profits of the cell sector underpin wafer prices in the short term. However, further price hikes will be unlikely if manufacturers keep current utilization rates with supply continuing to increase.

Cell

Currently, the cell sector has more room for profit. Cell prices stay at last week’s level, sitting at RMB 0.75/W for M10 cells and RMB 0.73/W for G12 cells. Prices for TOPCon cells stabilize at RMB 0.8-0.81/W, RMB 0.05-0.06/W higher than prices for PERC cells. For HJT cells, prices remain at RMB 0.88/W.

The current price level leaves module makers little room for profit. Module makers, even Tier-1 ones, purportedly plan to cut production recently. Doubled with rising prices for glass and other BOMs, cell prices seem to have reached the relative peak and will not advance further next week.

Module

Module makers take orders for PERC glass-backsheet modules at RMB 1.2-1.28/W. Prices of Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers become lower than production cost, sitting at RMB 1.23-1.26/W. Distribution prices are still mixed, with a slight rebound in the low-price range. Some module makers are delivering previous orders in the high-price range of RMB 1.3-1.38/W.

Module prices are set to increase. Tier-1 manufacturers raise prices by RMB 0.01-0.03/W, for the supply of popular modules is slightly tight. Some manufacturers cut production plans to purchase fewer cells. Given relatively high inventory levels in some regions, demand will not pick up until the latter part of this month. Further price drops are likely in the long run as module makers vie for orders. Chances for price hikes in the near term are little. Average prices will linger at RMB 1.25-1.28/W.

In non-China markets, prices stabilize at USD 0.165-0.17/W this week. Chinese exporters deliver products at USD 0.16-0.18/W (FOB). In Asia-Pacific, module makers deliver at USD 0.165-0.17/W. In Europe, spot prices come in at EUR 0.15-0.17/W Europe, with modules with black backsheet possessing a premium of EUR 0.02-0.025/W. Module makers keep selling off inventory.

Prices for n-type modules experience small fluctuations. Module makers still deliver G12 HJT modules at RMB 1.5-1.6/W in China and USD 0.197-0.22/W in non-China markets.

For M10 TOPCon modules, prices lose ground, coming in at RMB 1.28-1.38/W this week. In non-China markets, prices sit at USD 0.175-0.21/W. The premium against PERC ones shrinks to RMB 0.08/W in China and sustains at USD 0.01-0.012/W overseas.