Polysilicon prices poised to drop while module prices keep falling

Polysilicon

Market sentiment is peculiar in the polysilicon sector as prices stagnate amid the buyer-seller standoff. While some manufacturers still deliver previous orders, a new round of order placements has begun. New orders are sure to indicate price declines, but the pace of such declines will not be clear until next week.

The high-price range of polysilicon drops significantly. As manufacturers finish delivering previous high-price orders, price ranges of mono-grade polysilicon and granular polysilicon narrow, with the former diminishing to RMB 77-87/kg. For some special-spec products, prices stepped on a clear downward trend. Mainstream prices will not decrease in recent terms.

For now, polysilicon supply is steady, with inventory remaining at healthy levels.
 

Wafer

Wafer inventory equals half of a month of production. The inventory volume varies among manufacturers, casting a pessimistic outlook on the future price trend.

This week, wafer trading prices stay around last week’s levels, coming in at RMB 2.78/piece and RMB 3.68/piece for p-type M10 and p-type G12 wafers, respectively. For n-type wafers, prices sit at RMB 2.88/piece for M10 ones. Demand shifts to half-cut wafers and ingots. For full-n-type G12 wafers, most buyers are from non-China markets, with a few being TOPCon cell manufacturers in China. Against these backdrops, prices for full-n-type G12 wafers stabilize at around RMB 4.2/piece.

Mainstream trading prices remain unchanged this week, but manufacturers are eager to cut prices. Dual distribution and OEM businesses are frequent. For such non-standard business models, wafer prices vary significantly, coming in at RMB 2.7-2.75/piece for p-type M10 wafers purportedly. Price negotiations continued this Wednesday. Manufacturers are likely to update price quotes, lowering wafer prices again in the short term. The new low-price range will hinge on sales volumes and production plans of wafer manufacturers.
 

Cell

Currently, cell inventory equals four to five days of production. Caught between wafer and module price declines, cell trading prices plummet.

Cell prices slump 5-10% from last week’s level to RMB 0.56-0.58/W and RMB 0.58-0.6/W for p-type M10 and G12 cells, respectively. Trading prices vary more widely, with few M10 cells trading at the low-price range of RMB 0.55-0.56/W.

For n-type cells, M10 TOPCon cell prices decline by 4% to RMB 0.62-0.63/W. N-type cell prices are RMB 0.05-0.06/W higher than p-type ones. G12 HJT cells, mostly for in-house use and less for external sales, see prices come in at RMB 0.75/W.

Cell prices will stay on this downward trend next week. Seeing prices plunge, some manufacturers consider adjusting utilization rates, preferentially shutting down small-scale and old production lines. The future price trend depends on changes in utilization rates.
 

Module

Module prices keep falling this week. Module makers offer lower and lower price quotes, given the anticipation for further module price drops across the supply chain, the weaker-than-expected demand, and demand shifting from p-type to n-type modules. Previously estimated at RMB 1.15 in the third quarter, prices for PERC modules now reach RMB 1.05/W at their lowest. More price cuts are likely amid an oversupply if demand fails to pick up as expected, while supply increases as new capacity comes online. Average prices for PERC modules may drop lower than RMB 1.1/W, with the low-price range dipping below RMB 1/W.

Average prices for glass-backsheet modules fall to RMB 1.1-1.15/W this week. Tier-1 module makers keep taking new orders at lower prices, which come in at RMB 1.07-1.15/W. Some Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers sustain average prices at RMB 1.1-1.15/W out of cash-flow concerns, for current price level is very close to the break-even point.

For non-China markets, Chinese exporters deliver products at USD 0.12-0.14/W (FOB). In Asia-Pacific, module makers deliver at USD 0.12-0.14/W. In India, prices for local modules come in at USD 0.22-0.25/W. In Europe, spot prices begin to level off at EUR 0.12-0.14/W.

For TOPCon n-type modules, prices come in at RMB 1.13-1.25/W with a premium of USD 0.007-0.008/W against PERC ones in non-China markets.

For HJT modules, prices are little changed, sitting at RMB 1.38-1.48/W in China and RMB 1.35-1.38/W for low-efficiency ones.