Wafer, cell prices slowly decline as polysilicon continues retreat

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices continue to fall, but at a more moderate pace, to RMB 69-73/kg. Order intake is picking up, including that of leading companies, indicating a recovery in market sentiment from the previous downturn.

New production this month amounted to 61-63 GW, up 5-7% year-on-year. However, even with manufacturers, including leading companies, releasing and ramping up new capacity in the later part of the fourth quarter, actual production varies and remains uncertain. Nevertheless, an upward trend is for sure. Despite a slight buildup in inventories as of early November due to sluggish sales, the inventory level will not surge in recent terms as manufacturers resume deliveries for new orders and some still have previous production shortfalls and unfinished deliveries. The inventory level near the end of the fourth quarter  requires further observation.
 

Wafer

This week, wafer prices underwent ceaseless negotiations between buyers and sellers, although trading prices seemed little changed. The range of trading prices continues to expand, while leading manufacturers sustain prices. For instance, they give price quotes for n-type M10 wafers at around RMB 2.55/piece, while their Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers offered price quotes at RMB 2.4/piece, on par with p-type wafer prices. The widening range of transaction prices underscores the bargaining power of leading companies and the differences in wafer quality.

This week's wafer prices were relatively stable. M10 wafers saw prices drop while deliveries of some high-price orders continued. Prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers settled at RMB 2.4/piece and RMB 3.4/piece, respectively. For n-type M10 wafers, prices came in at RMB 2.4-2.55/piece. For n-type G12 wafers, prices varied for different cell manufacturing technology. Overall, prices sat at RMB 3.45-3.5/piece for full, n-type G12 wafers.

As wafer prices are approaching their lowest point, trading price can hardly decline next week. Manufacturers are still monitoring cell production changes. To date, there is no clear plan for cell production reduction. Subsequent price changes will depend on wafer inventory accumulation and downstream production scheduling.
 

Cell

This week, mainstream prices continued to decline. P-type M10 and G12 cells traded mostly at RMB 0.45/W and RMB 0.53/W, respectively, with M10 cells experiencing a 3-7% decrease, entering the low-price range of last week. Given limited profitability, some manufacturers resorted to OEM businesses to maintain operations and profits. Additionally, there is a renewed shortage of G12 cells. Observations on this Wednesday indicated potential quotation updates, potentially reaching around RMB 0.56/W, highlighting price differentiation among sizes.

For n-type cells, M10 TOPCon cell prices fell to RMB 0.5-0.52/W this week, with varying product quality widening the price range. The price difference between n-type and p-type cells remained around RMB 0.07/W. G12 HJT cells, mostly for in-house use and less for external sales, saw prices come in at RMB 0.7/W for high-efficiency ones.

In the aftermath of current price slump, Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers are left with little profitability for producing PERC cells. Many are poised to cut production, which is not an easy call due to concerns about losing staff during production halts and increased production costs as an offshoot of lower utilization rates. For mid and small-scale manufacturers, resuming production can be difficult once it is temporarily shut down.
 

Module

Average module prices this week approached RMB 1.05-1.08/W, with mainstream prices potentially reaching RMB 1-1.05/W in December. Manufacturers are lowering their offers for next year. The rapid decline in prices will accelerate product iteration and reshuffling. While some orders in the low-price range were delivered at prices below RMB 1/W, the volume was small. Some of those orders were overseas stocks, thus not considered standard delivery.

In November, Chinese exporters will deliver products at USD 0.12-0.135/W (FOB) overseas. In Asia-Pacific, module makers will deliver at USD 0.12-0.13/W. In India, prices for local modules will average at USD 0.2-0.24/W. In Europe, spot prices begin to level off at EUR 0.11-0.135/W.

As demand switches from PERC products, prices for TOPCon n-type modules come in at RMB 1.05-1.22/W, with a premium of USD 0.005-0.008/W against PERC ones in non-China markets.

For HJT modules, prices were little changed, sitting at RMB 1.3-1.45/W in China.