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| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | February 28, 2024 |
Polysilicon
Both polysilicon supply and demand from the ingot segment were little changed this week. Manufacturers keep delivering previous orders in a lackluster market.
Polysilicon prices were flat this week. However, material with lower prices and less accepted for n-type ingot production has broadened its usage with improved cost-effectiveness and quality, indicating flexible adjustment and adaptation of ingot manufacturers.
Polysilicon inventory experienced a month-on-month increase within reasonable ranges, reaching 60,000-70,000 MT at the end of February. A more pronounced inventory problem will gradually emerge.
Wafer
Wafer manufacturers sustain high production plans for March. Instead of determining sales based on production volume, manufacturers monitored supply-demand dynamics to adjust production. Competition within the sector intensified. Despite currently increasing inventory levels, manufacturers kept utilization rates high to secure larger market shares or achieve shipment targets, elevating production risks.
Trading prices held steady this week, coming in at RMB 2.05/piece and RMB 2.8-3.0/piece for p-type M10 and G12 wafers, respectively. For n-type wafers, trading prices stabilized at RMB 2/piece and RMB 3.08-3.1/piece for M10 and G12 ones, respectively.
As n-type 182mm wafers account for a larger portion of the inventory, trading prices slipped, with the low-price range reaching RMB 1.98/piece. Price quotes at RMB 1.95/piece were over the past week. Further declines are likely. Given relatively high polysilicon prices, the wafer sector will face great pressures as it is caught between upstream and downstream sectors.
Cell
After production cuts and down time during the Lunar New Year holiday, a temporary shortage of cells emerged as demand from the module sector strengthened. Cell manufacturers attempted to offer higher price quotes at RMB 0.4/W for 182mm PERC cells and RMB 0.48-0.49/W for n-type ones.
Trading prices for p-type cells remained at RMB 0.38-0.40/W for M10 and RMB 0.37-0.39/W for G12 cells, average prices for M10 increased. Meanwhile, leading, non-vertically integrated cell manufacturers maintained price premiums, with prices for high-efficiency products reaching RMB 0.39-0.4/W.
Prices for n-type M10 cells were relatively stable, averaging RMB 0.46-0.47/W and reaching RMB 0.48/W for ultra-high-efficiency ones. The price gap between TOPCon and PERC cells stabilized at RMB 0.08-0.09/W. G12 HJT high-efficiency cells saw prices coming in at RMB 0.6-0.7/W.
Despite manufacturers’ attempts to raise prices amid the short-term supply-demand mismatch, increases are not likely in recent terms and are subject to the acceptance of module makers until module prices take an upward turn.
Module
Module makers started producing in advance, raising production plans to 50-53 GW, in anticipation of a demand rebound in March and April. Still, pace of the recovery requires further observation, as Europe is still replenishing inventory while China’s utility-scale projects may take time to materialize, and the recovery remains uncertain.
Manufacturers wished to raise prices by RMB 0.02-0.04/W for PERC products after the holiday, but end users did not seem to give in. Overall, module prices will remain steady in March, with the low-price range slightly picking up. The sector awaits demand to recover.
Despite increases in the MSRPs of Tier-1 module makers in the second quarter, actual price hikes are not likely, given slow demand recovery and rising wafer inventory that may amplify the wait-and-see attitude among end users. Therefore, future price trends are subject to demand growth in China during April and May, the progress of shipments to non-China markets, and underpinning forces from other sectors. Currently, average module prices will be stable, with the low-price ranging rising by RMB 0.01-0.02/W.