Wafer prices fall on inventory build with polysilicon poised to follow suit

Polysilicon

Manufacturers currently continue delivering orders signed at previous price level. Meanwhile, price quotes offered by Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers saw a slight decrease while leading companies have yet to announce price quotes for new orders. As a result, the market is still in a wait-and-see mode, with tentative negotiations between buyers and sellers.

For granular polysilicon, prices came in at RMB 55-61/kg, with that of major manufacturers showing signs of slipping but further observation is required. For polysilicon chunks, price ranges varied, with the highest-quality ones reaching RMB 67-71/kg. For regular mono-grade polysilicon, prices slightly decreased to RMB 56-65/kg. Pressured by price and profit, the wafer sector seeks material price and cost reduction, and thus shows a continued increase in the acceptance and usage of lower-quality materials.

The ingot utilization rates and inventory levels will remain key points for upstream price negotiations until early April.
 

Wafer

Wafer inventory continues to increase on last week’s level, having accumulated over 4 billion pieces this week, showing no signs of decline. Manufacturers maintained high production plans, reflecting intense market competition among peers. Companies weighed operational risks of reducing production against the increase in fixed costs. Overall, wafer prices collapsed this week.

This week, trading prices dropped as expected, to RMB 1.9/piece and RMB 2.6/2.7 per piece respectively for p-type M10 and G12 wafers; RMB 1.8-1.85/piece and RMB 2.8/2.95 per piece for n-type M10 and G12 ones, respectively. Each format saw a decline of 2-5%. Manufacturers have been purchasing n-type G12 R wafers in small bulk, with prices sitting at RMB 2.3/piece.

Notably, n-type 182mm wafers recently saw severely diverged price trends among specifications. With demand continuing to shrink, large-chamfer diagonal 247mm wafer prices plummeted to RMB 1.75-1.8/piece, down by 5-8% from last week. For  small-chamfer diagonal 256mm wafers, prices stabilized at RMB 1.85/piece. This week, the published average prices of n-type M10 wafers were small-chamfer 256mm wafers.

So far, most manufacturers have yet to cut utilization rates. Given the time required for adjusting wafer production plans and inventory depletion, there won’t be significant impact on wafer circulation until mid-April even if manufacturers reduce production in late March. With current production plans, short-term wafer prices will likely see continuous declines.
 

Cell

Cell production remains steady, with manufacturers holding one week of inventory level, which contrast sharply with the wafer sector. TOPCon cell inventory efficiency improved significantly due to the adoption of LECO, averaging 24.7% and beyond. InfoLink will adjust publicized efficiency in April.

Declining wafer prices put cell and module sectors under pressure. Trading prices slightly dropped this week to RMB 0.38-0.39/W for p-type M10 cells; RMB 0.36-0.38/W for p-type G12 cells, and RMB 0.4/W for non-China buyers.

Prices for n-type M10 cells were relatively stable, averaging RMB 0.46-0.47/W and reaching RMB 0.48/W for ultra-high-efficiency ones. The price gap between TOPCon and PERC cells stabilized at RMB 0.08-0.09/W. Prices for G12 TOPCon sit above RMB 0.49/W, with more buyers expected in Q2. G12 HJT high-efficiency cells saw prices coming in at RMB 0.6-0.7/W.
 

Module

Trading prices for glass-glass PERC modules stayed stable this week at RMB 0.85-0.9/W; RMB 0.88-0.96/W for TOPCon modules and RMB 1.04-1.25/W for HJT modules. High-priced orders from earlier stages are finalizing, with high prices beginning to decline this week.

Module manufacturers kept attempting to offer higher price quotes, with leading manufacturers recently cut shipments for orders below RMB 0.88/W and attempt to raise baseline price to RMD 0.9/W. Yet, as previous low-price orders remain below RMB 0.85/W, prices for ground-mounted projects stay at RMB 0.85-0.9/W, while the low-price range for distributed generation projects slightly picks up. Clearly, it’s difficult for end users to accept price increase. Moreover, module manufacturers’ differentiation strategies and supply chain price declines make it difficult to raise module prices. Having said that, module profit may slightly recover. Hence, module prices hold steady in March, with the low-price range slightly picking up. Looking forward to Q2, previous orders for ground-mounted projects signed at RMB 0.85-0.88/W will be carried out. By then, module prices may see a slight but limited decrease.