Module prices hardly sustaining amid faster polysilicon price declines

Polysilicon

The market still showed little interest in purchasing and negotiating as of the eve of the Chinese Qingming Festival. Buyers urgently need lower polysilicon prices due to the risk of wafer price collapse, which could go below the break-even point. Most buyers have cut utilization rates and adjusted production plans, while some ingot manufacturers have yet to do so.  

The average price of polysilicon chunk fell to RMB 63/kg this week. Both the low and high-price range dropped, although the latter sustained RMB 65-68/kg. This overall decline reflected revisions of orders previously signed and changes in cooperation models. The average granular polysilicon price fell to RMB 56/kg, with previous orders taken into account. Further declines are likely after the Chinese Qingming Festival holiday starting April 4.  

As of early April, polysilicon inventory reached to equal 18 to 20 days of production. Inventory levels and structures vary among manufacturers. As mentioned in previous weeks, inventory pile-up will intensify in the second quarter. 
 

Wafer

Notice: The average price for n-type M10 wafers this week is based on 256mm-diagonal. High and low prices in RMB and dollar terms are based on trading prices of all formats.

Notably, n-type 182mm wafers recently saw severely diverged price trends among specifications. With demand continuing to shrink.

Trading prices for wafers of all formats continued decreasing this week, reaching RMB 1.7-1.8/piece and RMB 2.1-2.3/piece for p-type M10 and G12 wafers; RMB 1.6-1.7/piece and RMB 2.5-2.7/piece for n-type M10 and G12 ones, respectively. Each format saw a decline of 3-8%.

This week, manufacturers begin planning for production cuts. However, considering the time required for adjusting wafer production plans and inventory depletion, the reductions will have little impact on the amount of wafers available on the market until mid to late April. With current production plans, short-term wafer prices will likely see continuous declines.
 

Cell

Cell production held steady this week. However, prices began to lose ground as wafer prices plummeted.

TOPCon cell inventory efficiency improved significantly due to the introduction of LECO, averaging 24.7% and beyond. InfoLink will adjust publicized efficiency in April.

Trading prices this week slightly dropped to RMB 0.36-0.37/W for p-type M10 cells, RMB 0.35-0.36/W for p-type G12 cells.

N-type M10 cells saw average prices fall marginally to RMB 0.42-0.43/W. The price gap between M10 TOPCon and PERC cells close to RMB 0.06-0.08/W. G12 HJT high-efficiency cells saw prices coming in at RMB 0.6-0.7/W.

Despite recent wafer price collapse leading to a recovery in cell makers' profitability, module makers reduced their margins via dual distribution and OEM manufacturing.
 

Module

Module makers started delivering new orders this week, mostly for utility-scale projects. As a result, prices were slightly lower, with the gap remaining wide between the high and the low-price range due to price adjustments before and after deliveries. This week, prices sit at RMB 0.8-0.93/W for 182mm PERC glass-glass modules and RMB 0.85-1/W for TOPCon ones, showing an evident difference between prices for centralized and distributed generation projects. The former took TOPCon deliveries at RMB 0.85-0.9/W (excluding prices not being delivered now), even RMB 1/W, according to orders previously signed. For the latter, orders were delivered at RMB 0.87-0.95/W, although some low-priced orders existed. As for HJT modules, prices stabilized at RMB 1.03-1.2/W in China and slightly moved to USD 0.13-0.15/W in non-China markets due to deliveries of some new orders.

The module sector remains pressured in April as rising material costs offset midstream price declines. Monthly production volume in April is estimated to reach 58 GW of module production in April, an increase of 4%, given adjustments of production plans in late March, which showed module makers taking varied strategies. Taking ample orders, top-tier manufacturers maintain stable production, with some increasing production substantially. Conversely, others will restrict production, modifying old production lines to mitigate the impact of wafer and cell price hikes, putting the pressure back on the midstream manufacturers.