| Category | |
|---|---|
| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | April 10, 2024 |
Polysilicon
As of this Wednesday, the polysilicon market still showed little interest in purchasing and negotiating, with buyers aiming for trading prices much lower than what manufacturers can accept. Prices of Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers took the lead and decreased faster to RMB 52-54/kg this week, while their Tier-1 peers sustain quotes at RMB 55-58/kg for the time being, still higher than buyers’ target prices, but the gap between has narrowed.
As prices decline rapidly, the market sees more diversity and flexibility in business cooperation, such as price revisions for previous orders.
As of early April, polysilicon inventory translated to over 22 days of production. Inventory levels and structures vary among manufacturers. As previously mentioned, inventory pile-up will intensify in the second quarter, becoming the new norm for manufacturers of all tiers.
Wafer
Notice: The average price for n-type M10 wafers this week is based on a diagonal length of 256mm. High and low prices in RMB and dollar terms are trading prices of all formats.
Planned wafer production for April dropped to 67 GW, a 6-7% month-on-month decrease. Manufacturers made arrangements differently. Cell-module Vertical integrators raised production steadily to keep lines operating and meet their shipment targets. Meanwhile, non-vertically integrated companies announced plans to reduce ingot production due to sluggish sales, inventory accumulation, and price collapse.
Trading prices for wafers of all formats continued decreasing this week, reaching RMB 1.7/piece and RMB 2.1-2.2/piece for p-type M10 and G12 wafers; RMB 1.55-1.65/piece and RMB 2.3-2.5/piece for n-type M10 and G12 ones, respectively. Each format saw a decline of 4-8%. Manufacturers have been purchasing n-type G12R wafers in bulks, with prices at RMB 2.05-2.1/piece. InfoLink’s weekly spot price update will include prices for n-type G12R wafers once the number of buyers stabilizes.
With manufacturers selling off inventory and reducing production in late March, wafer inventory levels decline slowly but remain above 4 billion pieces. Manufacturers began to seek price hikes this week, offering quotes for n-type 182mm wafers at RMB 1.63-1.65/piece. However, given inventory problems and utilization rates, the outlook for wafer price trends remains gloomy.
Cell
In contrast with the wafer sector, cell manufacturers kept increasing production for April, mostly ramping up n-type production lines. Overall, cell production output will reach 70-71 GW, nearly a 12% month-on-month increase. After the Chinese Qingming Festival, n-type production has accelerated noticeably, with the penetration rate rising, potentially reaching 68% this month.
Cell prices held steady this week, except for n-type M10 cells, of which trading prices dropped for a bit. For p-type M10 and G12 cells, prices sit at RMB 0.36/W and RMB 0.35/W, respectively, while leading manufacturers adjusted quotes to RMB 0.37-0.38/W this week. In non-China markets, prices declined as manufacturers offered lower quotes but still varied across different regions.
Prices for n-type M10 cells slipped to RMB 0.42/W, narrowing the price gap between M10 TOPCon and PERC cells to RMB 0.06-0.07/W. G12 HJT high-efficiency cells saw prices at RMB 058-0.65/W.
Over the recent weeks, module makers have pressured cell manufacturers through dual distribution and OEM models, which, doubled with the recently increasing silver spot rate, squeezed profit margins for cell manufacturers. Cell-module vertical integrators dedicated more production to in-house module capacities to hedge risks or even attempt to raise price quotes for products of some specs.
Module
This week, prices sit at RMB 0.78-0.90/W for 182mm PERC glass-glass modules, with projects in China experiencing a more noticeable decrease towards RMB 0.85/W, even below RMB 0.8/W reportedly. Module makers delivered TOPCon modules at RMB 0.82-1/W, with a wide gap between the high and the low-price range due to price adjustments before and after deliveries. The gap between prices for centralized and distributed generation projects also remained. The former took TOPCon deliveries at RMB 0.82-0.9/W (excluding prices not being delivered now), even RMB 1/W, according to orders previously signed. For the latter, orders were delivered at RMB 0.85-0.95/W, although some low-priced orders existed. As for HJT modules, prices fell to RMB 1.03-1.2/W, averaging RMB 1.1-1.15/W.
In non-China markets, module makers delivered new orders for PERC modules at USD 0.1-0.11/W. TOPCon prices vary significantly by region, sitting at EUR 0.12-0.13/W in Europe and USD 0.12-0.13/W in Australia, while decreasing to USD 0.11-0.12/W in Brazil and the Middle East. The U.S. placed fewer orders for the second quarter. Prices remained USD 0.33-0.35/W, the delivery prices for centralized generation projects last week. Due to policy, manufacturers tried to raise prices for modules from Southeast Asia. As for HJT modules, prices stabilized at USD 0.13-0.15/W.
