Up and midstream prices keep falling on inventory pile-up

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices continued to decline after the Labor Day holiday, reaching RMB 40-46/kg for polysilicon chunks and RMB 38-41/kg for granular polysilicon. Overall, price drops have been slowing down.

With prices now reaching below the industry’s production cost, manufacturers are worried prices lower than RMB 40/kg will disrupt operations. Some manufacturers bring forward maintenance and production cuts, while new capacities of leading manufacturers come online steadily, offsetting the decreases. Therefore, production volume will remain at last month’s level.

In the second and third quarters, inventory levels will increase, building up sales pressure.
 

Wafer

Note: Wafer prices for 182mm wafers includes 182-183.75mm formats. Weekly spot price table will be adjusted to reflect this starting in June.

Planned wafer production volume in May remained close to last month’s level at 66 GW as vertical integrators slightly reduced production, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers kept increasing. The growth of n-type production lost momentum, with its share decreasing by 1% to 74% in May.

Trading prices continued decreasing this week, reaching RMB 1.55-1.6/piece and RMB 2-2.1/piece for p-type M10 and G12 wafers; RMB 1.4-1.45/piece, RMB 2.2-2.3/piece, and RMB 1.8-1.9/piece for n-type M10, G12, and G12R wafers, respectively. Each format experienced a 4-7% decline.

Wafer prices keep fluctuating. Manufacturers adopt varying pricing strategies, with some prioritizing profitability, and others focusing on market share and customer relations. As a result, price gap continues to widen, underlining a prisoner's dilemma among manufacturers. Further declines are likely as leading companies consider updating price quotes.

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Cell

Note: Cell prices for 182mm include 182-183.75mm formats. Weekly spot price table will be adjusted to reflect this starting in June.

Planned cell production for April rebounded to 67 GW as end-user demand recovered. For May, manufacturers will sustain production at 68 GW, with the share of n-type cell production rising from 68% to 72% amid p-type cell phase-outs.

Cell prices continued to decrease slowly this week, reaching RMB 0.32-0.34/W for p-type M10 cells and RMB 0.35/W for G12 ones. Prices for n-type M10 cells slipped to RMB 0.37-0.38/W, with the price gap between TOPCon and PERC M10 cells sitting at RMB 0.03-0.06/W. HJT G12 high-efficiency cells saw prices at RMB 0.55-0.65/W.

As transactions increase, InfoLink’s weekly spot price update will soon include TOPCon G12 and G12R cell prices. Current prices for the two formats come in at RMB 0.39-0.4/W and RMB 0.4-0.42/W, respectively.
 

Module

Module production looks steady in May and June, with no significant increases. Module makers show inconsistent strategies. Tier-1 manufacturers maintained production thanks to stable order inflows, with some persisting in high production plans for Q2. Some Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers, benefiting from OEM orders, consider raising production plans for May and June, while others sustain operations by regulating production.

May orders looked steady as of this week, chiefly sustained by the Chinese market, where centralized procurement projects accounted for most deliveries, with TOPCon modules delivered at RMB 0.88-0.92/W. For distributed-generation projects, orders were delivered at RMB 0.85-0.93/W, although some low-priced orders existed.

Tier-1 manufacturers still delivered above RMB 0.88/W, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers delivered at prices below break-even points. However, some buyers and sellers still negotiated for price adjustments, which have resulted in prices below RMB 0.8/W, far lower than production costs. Since manufacturers could not deliver at this price level, some ongoing projects were postponed. After the adjustments, delivery prices for centralized procurement projects will come in mostly at RMB 0.8-0.82/W in the second half of 2024.

For 182mm PERC glass-glass modules, prices sat at RMB 0.78-0.90/W this week, with projects in China experiencing a more noticeable decrease towards RMB 0.83-0.85/W. For HJT modules, prices fell to RMB 0.97-1.18/W, averaging RMB 1.1/W, with the low-price range reportedly reaching below RMB 1/W.

In non-China markets, PERC module prices stabilized at USD 0.1-0.11/W. Prices in Europe slipped to EUR 0.10-0.11/W due to fewer orders.

TOPCon module prices varied significantly by region, sitting at EUR 0.12-0.13/W in Europe, USD 0.12-0.13/W in Australia, and USD 0.11-0.12/W in Brazil and the Middle East, where price quotes for 2025 and late 2024 will reportedly reach below USD 0.10/W.

As for HJT modules, prices stabilized at USD 0.13-0.15/W.

The U.S. placed fewer orders for the second quarter. Prices remained at USD 0.33-0.35/W, the delivery prices for centralized-generation projects last week. Due to recent trade policy disruption, some module makers in Southeast Asia suspended price quotes for 2025.