Price trends hinges on SNEC conversations

Polysilicon

Buyers and sellers are in a stalemate, with the former posting decreasing demand, while the latter faces unneglectable E&O inventory despite reducing additions in monthly production.

Price stabilized as the SNEC is soon taking place. China-made polysilicon chunks, mostly from Tier-1 manufacturers, sustained prices at RMB 38-42/kg, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 at RMB 36-39/kg. Given current shipment volumes, prices can hardly increase. For China-made granular polysilicon, prices stayed at last week’s RMB 36-37/kg and are unlikely to inch higher in the short term.

Inventory levels saw limited increases, but previous accumulation is not to be depleted soon. Pressures persist in the third quarter as inventory pileup becomes a new norm.
 

Wafer

P-type wafer prices remained at RMB 1.2-1.25/piece for M10 wafers and RMB 1.7-1.8/piece for G12 ones. For n-type wafers, prices reached RMB 1.1/piece, RMB 1.65-1.7/piece, and RMB 1.4-1.45/piece for M10, G12, and G12R wafers, respectively.

Production plans will change drastically in June. try surveys as of early this month show a monthly production of 51-52 GW, a nearly 20% MoM decrease as all manufacturers reduce production, except some professional manufacturers. Market penetration of n-type products lost momentum during January and May but will increase significantly to 80% in June, a month-on-month increase of 5 percentage points.
 

Cell

Given the production plans of module makers, vertically integrated cell manufacturers cut production markedly In June. Meanwhile, professional cell makers maintain line operations and keep bringing capacities online. The monthly cell production output will reach 56-57 GW, a month-on-month decrease of nearly 10%.

Cell prices were still unchanged this week, sitting at RMB 0.31/W for p-type M10 and G12 cells. Given declines in wafer prices, prices kept falling to RMB 0.3/W for M10 TOPCon cells. For G12 HJT high-efficiency cells and G12R TOPCon cells, prices came in at RMB 0.45-0.55/W and RMB 0.33/W, respectively.
 

Module

End users are still cautious, awaiting post-SNEC changes. As a result, prices stabilized, sitting at RMB 0.88-0.9/W for TOPCon modules, and will keep approaching below RMB 0.9/W. Manufacturers are grabbing orders by cutting prices recently, resulting in a rapid price decline in low-efficiency products, with prices ranging from RMB 0.74-0.78/W. However, the low-range price this week does not reflect such prices as these projects are not of regular efficiency.

Regarding other formats, prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules stood at RMB 0.78-0.88/W. As China saw reduced projects, prices started shifting to RMB 0.8-0.83/W. Prices for low-efficiency products fell rapidly, sitting at RMB 0.71-0.75/W. Yet, as these projects are not of regular efficiency and the order model rules out spot price reference, the low-price range this week does not reflect such prices. HJT modules, on the other hand, saw few projects being delivered recently. Prices hovered at RMB 0.97-1.18/W, with the average price approaching RMB 1.1/W and RMB 1/W, whilst the low-price range reached below RMB 1/W.

In overseas markets, PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.1-0.105/W.

TOPCon modules saw notable regional price divergence. Some are delivered at EUR 0.10-0.13/W in Europe and USD 0.12-0.13/W in Australia. However, the market prices stood at USD 0.10-0/12/W in Brazil and the Middle East. In Latin America, prices came in at USD 0.105-0.115/W and even declined to USD 0.09/W as some manufacturers cut prices to grab orders.

For HJT, prices stayed at USD 0.13-0.15/W for now.