Supply chain prices bottom out amid production cut

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices dropped slightly this week, driven by lowered delivery prices before. China-made polysilicon chunks sustained prices at RMB 37-40/kg. The update this week adjusted the average price to RMB 39/kg, considering slower decreases in the delivery prices of long-term orders and reflecting mostly prices of leading manufacturers. Prices of their Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers came in slightly lower, but the range had narrowed significantly. Currently, the near-cash-cost prices threaten all manufacturers, especially Tier-2, Tier-3, and new players, in terms of profitability and cash flow management. For China-made granular polysilicon, prices stabilized at RMB 36-37/kg and are unlikely to fall further.

Despite the SNEC and Intersolar 2024, the supply end remained under pressure. More manufacturers, including Tier-1 companies, are planning production cuts or shutdowns, preparing strategies to tackle the challenging second half of the year.

In the third quarter, there will be more and larger-scale production cuts and shutdowns. With the cumulative production capacity and the volume of addition contradicting, a comprehensive capacity elimination will begin in the second half of this year.
 

Wafer

Prices stabilized at RMB 1.2-1.25/piece for p-type M10 wafers and RMB 1.7/piece for G12 ones. For n-type wafers, prices reached RMB 1.08-1.1/piece, RMB 1.65-1.7/piece, and RMB 1.4-1.45/piece for M10, G12, and G12R wafers, respectively.

Wafer supply-demand dynamics reached a brief stabilization. Inventory levels decreased slowly as manufacturers reduced production, but the total remained above 4 billion pieces. During the SNEC, manufacturers tried to raise prices from RMB 1.05/piece to RMB 1.08-1.1/piece during the exhibitions. However, oversupply persists, and inventory may build up again, initiating more price declines.
 

Cell

Cell prices stabilized for the time being as faster depletion before facilitated healthy inventory levels that equal two to five days of production.

Prices slipped to RMB 0.3/W for p-type M10 and G12 cells. While average prices for n-type M10 TOPCon cells stabilized at RMB 0.3/W, the low-price range reached below RMB 0.29/W. For G12R and G12 TOPCon cells, prices came in at RMB 0.32/W and RMB 0.33/W, respectively.

Prices for G12 HJT high-efficiency cells sat at RMB 0.45-0.55/W.

Cell makers slowed down the production of 210mm cells as price collapses for n-type 183mm cells affected 210mm cell prices. Production of n-type 210R and 210mm cells picked up in June. Starting this week, InfoLink’s weekly spot price updates will include 210mm TOPCon cells.
 

Module

Some Chinese module makers still delivered previous orders this week, while some had been delivering new ones. Overall, prices showed signs of decline. Due to weak demand, prices for distributed generation projects decreased. For TOPCon modules, prices reached RMB 0.8-0.9/W this week and will keep approaching RMB 0.8-0.85/W. Manufacturers have been cutting prices to grab orders, resulting in a rapid price decline in low-efficiency products, ranging from RMB 0.74-0.78/W. However, the low-price range this week does not reflect such prices as these projects are not of regular efficiency.

Regarding other formats, prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules stood at RMB 0.76-0.85/W. As China saw reduced projects, prices started falling below RMB 0.8/W. There were few deliveries of HJT modules recently, with prices remaining at RMB 0.93-1.07/W, while the average price approaching RMB 1.05-1.07/W and will towards RMB 0.96-1/W. For utility-scale projects, prices reached below RMB 1/W.

In Europe, some centralized generation projects faced delays to 2025, for declines in traditional energy costs affect project profitability. The weakened demand led to price drops. Prices for TOPCon modules varied significantly among regions, coming in at EUR 0.09-0.125/W in Europe and USD 0.11-0.13/W in Australia. Meanwhile, in Brazil and the Middle East, prices reached USD 0.085-0.12/W, respectively. In Latin America, prices came in at USD 0.09-0.11/W and declined to USD 0.09/W as some manufacturers cut prices to secure orders.

PERC and HJT modules were delivered at USD 0.09-0.1/W and USD 0.13-0.14/W, respectively.