Manufacturers poised to raise prolonged low prices

Polysilicon

Price drops showed a stronger sign of cessation, with prices for China-made polysilicon and granular polysilicon remaining at RMB 36-41/kg and RMB 35-36/kg, respectively. As mentioned in previous weeks, prices have reached far below the break-even point and can hardly decline further.

Monthly polysilicon supply seemed to be more than expected. Manufacturers will extend production cuts in August. Therefore, polysilicon supply is likely to decrease in August, which, doubled with bottom-low prices, encouraging quote requests and purchases. Orders and negotiations with buyers of inelastic polysilicon demand saw significant recoveries. The utilization rates and the demand for polysilicon of the ingot sector may increase slightly. Polysilicon manufacturers are poised to raise prices.

Inventory level keeps falling as the ingot sector purchases more than needed amid production cuts and bottom-low process. Polysilicon manufacturers will see inventory pressures reduce but persist in the second half of this year.
 

Wafer

Trading prices for 210mm rectangular n-type wafers kept decreasing, reaching RMB 1.25/piece this week and approaching RMB 1.2/piece.

For M10 and G12 p-type wafers, prices came in at RMB 1.25/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. For M10, G12, and G12 rectangular n-type wafers, prices reached RMB 1.1/piece, RMB 1.6-1.65/piece, and RMB 1.25/piece, respectively.

Several manufacturers raised prices slightly higher. Some delivered 183mm, 256mm-diagonal n-type wafers at RMB 1.12/piece this week. Currently, supply still exceeds demand. Manufacturers focus on potential demand growth in August.
 

Cell

Prices stayed at RMB 0.29/W for p-type M10 and G12 cells, and RMB 0.29-0.3/W for G12R and G12 TOPCon cells. For M10 TOPCon cells, prices sustained an average price of RMB 0.29/W, but the low-price range reached below RMB 0.27/W.

Cell makers continue to have losses. The gross margin of M10 TOPCon cells reached -11% to -12% at the trading price of RMB 0.29/W. With high inventory levels, the outlook remains bleak.

Given production costs, there is no room for further price drops. As oversupply persists, manufacturers will struggle with continued losses. Some have sustained prices for high-efficiency cells, delivering at prices no less than RMB 0.29-0.3/W.
 

Module

Module prices were little changed this week. For TOPCon modules, prices reached RMB 0.76-0.8/W for centralized generation projects and RMB 0.78-0.85/W for distributed ones. Overall, the average price was RMB 0.8-0.83/W.

Tier-1 module makers sustained prices at RMB 0.78-0.8/W, while the rest offered lower price quotes due to poorer order volumes.

Some module makers attempted to raise prices as they saw order volumes increasing and prices reaching the bottom. Still, the key lies in demand, which shows no sign of significant recovery. With price wars and cheap low-efficiency products disrupting the market, module prices are not likely to rebound but will stabilize for the time being.

Prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules sit at RMB 0.72-0.85/W. Prices for projects in China began to fall below RMB 0.8/W as the number of projects decreased. For HJT modules, prices came in at RMB 0.85-1.00/W, with the average price approaching RMB 0.95/W and below RMB 1/W for utility-scale projects.

In non-China markets, prices for HJT modules dropped to USD 0.12-0.13/W. PERC modules were delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W. For TOPCon modules, prices varied significantly among regions, sitting at USD 0.1-0.105/W in Asia-Pacific, EUR 0.085-0.115/W in Europe, USD 0.105-0.13/W in Australia, USD 0.085-0.12/W in Brazil, and USD 0.09-0.12/W in the Middle East. For utility-scale projects, prices approached below USD 0.1/W in the Middle East and USD 0.09-0.11 in Latin America.