| Category | |
|---|---|
| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | August 28, 2024 |
Polysilicon
In August, production matched previous estimates, showing a slight decline. High temperatures in Sichuan caused temporary power restrictions, reducing polysilicon output. This will affect September's production, depending on weather and power conditions. The supply situation is complex, with some leading manufacturers resuming production after cuts or maintenance, others maintaining high or low output, and some planning to add new capacity. Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers are more consistent, with clear plans for production cuts or maintenance, and some Tier-3 peers are shutting down operations.
Starting in mid-August, some leading manufacturers cut ingot utilization rates, impacting the market. If non-vertically integrated wafer manufacturers follow suit for the rate cuts in September, polysilicon demand will decrease. On the other hand, some polysilicon manufacturers are expected to complete maintenance and raise utilization rates and output in September. Thus, the polysilicon supply in September may slightly rebound, likely raising inventory levels and hindering spot price recoveries for polysilicon.
Prices for China-made polysilicon chunks stayed at RMB 37-42/kg, averaging RMB 39.5/kg; China-made granular polysilicon stayed at RMB 36-37/kg, averaging RMB 36/kg. Non-China polysilicon chunks sustained prices at USD 17-23.5/kg, averaging USD 21.5/kg. Prices had no changes this week but remain under pressure and could decline.
Polysilicon orders show a noticeable divergence. Some buyers have excess polysilicon inventories beyond their actual needs from previous shipments. Given the persistently low-level ingot utilization rates, purchasing demand is not urgent, leaving a wait-and-see attitude. Other buyers with inelastic demand gradually complete their purchases, and the slight adjustments in mainstream market prices have been primarily reflected. Whether wafer prices can rebound in September is a key concern in all sectors and will influence polysilicon prices.
Wafer
This week, wafer trading prices stayed stable, but the market sentiment remains tense. With manufacturers announcing to raise price quotes, both buyers and sellers are waiting for the new prices updated on August 29. Proposed prices are RMB 1.15/piece for 183N wafers, RMB 1.3/piece for 210RN wafers, and RMB 1.5/piece for 210N wafers, but there's been little buyer interest so far.
Trading prices came in at RMB 1.25/piece and RMB 1.7/piece for p-type M10 and G12 wafers, respectively. Some leading manufacturers raised 210P wafer prices to RMB 1.7-1.75/piece. N-type wafers saw more fluctuations, with 183N wafers at RMB 1.08/piece, while some traded at RMB 1.05-1.06/piece. G12 and G12R wafers were priced at RMB 1.5/piece and RMB 1.23/piece.
The market expects intense price negotiations tomorrow. Some manufacturers have delayed shipments, waiting for the new prices. However, price increases may trigger strong resistance from cell manufacturers. The market is closely watching the outcome.
Cell
Cell prices saw significant divergence this week. P-type M10 cell prices mostly sat at RMB 0.28-0.285/W, with leading manufacturers delivering few previous orders signed at RMB 0.29-0.30/W. For p-type G12 ones, prices reached RMB 0.28-0.29/W. Reportedly, some manufacturers will gradually halt p-type capacity amid capacity phase-outs and declining supply in the fourth quarter, stabilizing p-type cell prices.
N-type cell prices slipped to RMB 0.27-0.29/W for M10 TOPCon and RMB 0.28-0.29/W for G12R and G12 TOPCon ones as some manufacturers sold off inventory at the end of August.
With wafer price quotes rising this week, cell prices are expected to follow suit for higher costs. However, end-user demand has not significantly recovered, making it hard for module manufacturers to afford higher cell prices. As a result, the wafer price hikes pressured the cost of cells, leaving a gloomy market sentiment. Overall, cell prices will likely stay flat without notable rebounds in the near term.
Module
Module manufacturers continue to sell off E&O amid inventory accumulation and sluggish demand, with modules priced below RMB 0.7/W disrupting the market. Manufacturers have been cutting prices for new orders, with pricing strategy becoming increasingly aggressive. Prices for ground-mounted projects declined further, averaging RMB 0.75-0.77/W, and new orders delivered at nearly RMB 0.7/W. Yet, manufacturers can hardly sustain prices at RMB 0.7-0.72/W amid buyer-seller standoffs. For distributed generation projects, prices slip to RMB 0.77-0.82/W this week due to falling spot prices, averaging RMB 0.75-0.77/W.
Prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules sat at RMB 0.67-0.8/W. For HJT modules, prices stayed at RMB 0.8-0.95/W, with utility-scale projects falling toward lower prices. Manufacturers would sustain prices at nearly RMB 0.9/W.
The price gap between p-type IBC and TOPCon modules remained at RMB 0.02/W, while that with n-type TBC module price quotes narrowed to RMB 0.03-0.07/W. As many centralized procurement projects in China are including BC products in tenders, planned productions will rise accordingly. Further progress hinges on the upcoming tenders.
Future demand remains low. The expected global production will reach 50-51 GW, with manufacturers with higher inventory levels taking cautious strategies. With price wars and cheap, low-efficiency products disrupting the market, module prices will hardly rebound.
In non-China markets, prices for HJT modules stayed at USD 0.12-0.125/W. PERC modules were delivered at USD 0.09-0.1/W. For TOPCon modules, prices varied significantly among regions, sitting at USD 0.1-0.11/W in Asia-Pacific, USD 0.1-0.11/W in Japan and Korea, EUR 0.085-0.11/W in Europe, USD 0.105-0.12/W in Australia, USD 0.085-0.11/W in Brazil, and USD 0.1-0.11/W in the Middle East. For utility-scale projects, prices approached below USD 0.1/W in the Middle East and USD 0.09-0.11/W in Latin America. Previous orders were delivered at USD 0.15/W, and USD 0.09-0.1/W for new orders, reflecting significant price differentiation. In the U.S., market prices are affected by policy uncertainties, resulting in less demand. Manufacturers delivered TOPCon modules at USD 0.23-0.28/W this week, slightly below the previous USD 0.28-0.3/W level. The price gap between PERC and TOPCon modules is USD 0.02-0.03/W. InfoLink’s weekly spot price updates will include prices for U.S.-made modules based on market movements.