Polysilicon price quotes keep edging while wafer, cell extend negotiations

Polysilicon

Price quotes slightly raised this week, with China-made polysilicon reaching RMB 38-42/kg for makers and RMB 42-44/kg for non-makers, averaging RMB 39.5/kg. Despite significant price recoveries for low-priced new orders and numerous previous deliveries, further price hikes hinge on the downstream sector’s acceptance and take time.

Prices for China-made granular polysilicon stayed at RMB 35-36/kg for previous orders; new deliveries may see price hikes. With the reduced E&O of granular polysilicon manufacturers, inventory levels saw continued declines on the supply side but rose on the demand side.

Prices for non-China-made polysilicon remained low due to falling demand and shipping momentum except few Tier-1 manufacturers. Thus, the polysilicon supply in non-China markets saw a quarter-on-quarter decline in the third quarter, resulting in rising port inventory levels and price instabilities.
 

Wafer

Wafer trading prices stayed flat this week amid buyer-seller standoffs, while manufacturers failed to sustain price quotes. So far, few buyers accepted quotes at RMB 1.15/piece for 183N wafers and RMB 1.3/piece for 210RN ones.

Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers sat at RMB 1.25/piece and RMB 1.7-1.75/piece this week. For n-type wafers, prices were mostly traded at RMB 1.06-1.08/piece, RMB 1.5/piece, and RMB 1.23-1.25/piece for 183N, G12, and G12R wafers, respectively. Yet, few buyers accepted RMB 1.1-1.15/piece for 183N wafers.

In September, planned production for wafers and cells may see month-on-month reductions amid attempted price hikes. However, further price hikes for these two sectors will be challenging as they hinge on module price trends, given the tense supply-demand dynamics.
 

Cell

P-type M10 cell prices reach RMB 0.27-0.285/W, with average prices falling from RMB 0.285/W to RMB 0.28/W this week. Despite gradual phase-outs for p-type capacity, M10 cell prices keep slipping amid oversupply due to module makers' plunging demand. In contrast, p-type G12 cells maintain last week's level, RMB 0.28-0.29/W, averaging RMB 0.285/W.

For n-type cells, this week, prices stabilized at RMB 0.27-0.285/W, RMB 0.27-0.29/W, and RMB 0.285-0.29/W for M10, G12R, and G12, respectively. Notably, the low-price range of G12 cells bottomed at RMB 0.285/W; as cell manufacturers attempted to raise their price quotes, RMB 0.29/W will likely become mainstream next week amid steady demand.

Cell makers have yet to accept rising price quotes for wafers this week; thus, they will rely on existing wafer inventories in the short term. Moreover, cell makers are also attempting to raise price quotes for module makers, but cell prices will likely stay flat, given constant module price declines and low end-user demand. Price negotiations between upstream and downstream persist.
 

Module

Average module prices slip to RMB 0.7-0.75/W this week, with new deliveries approaching RMB 0.7/W and the low-price range reaching RMB 0.67-0.69/W. Prices for distributed generation projects come in at RMB 0.73-0.75/W due to dropping spot prices.

Prices stay at RMB 0.67-0.78/W for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules and RMB 0.8-0.9/W for HJT modules, with utility-scale projects falling toward lower prices. Module makers cut tender prices due to fewer orders.

The price gap between p-type IBC and TOPCon modules remained at RMB 0.01-0.02/W, while that with n-type TBC module price quotes narrowed to RMB 0.03-0.05/W. As many centralized procurement projects in China include BC products in tenders, planned production will rise accordingly. Further progress hinges on the upcoming tenders.

Some module makers have been cutting prices aggressively amid sluggish demand in Q4, with Tier-1 offering price quotes below RMB 0.7/W, even reaching RMB 0.65/W. Module prices will hardly rebound.

Market fluctuations this week impacted module prices in non-China markets. HJT and PERC modules were delivered at USD 0.115-0.12/W and USD 0.09-0.1/W, respectively. For TOPCon modules, prices varied significantly among regions, sitting at USD 0.1-0.11/W in Asia-Pacific, USD 0.1-0.11/W in Japan and Korea, EUR 0.085-0.11/W in Europe, USD 0.105-0.115/W in Australia, USD 0.085-0.11/W in Brazil, and USD 0.1-0.11/W in the Middle East. For utility-scale projects, prices approached below USD 0.1/W in the Middle East and USD 0.09-0.11/W in Latin America. Previous orders were delivered at USD 0.15/W, while new orders were at USD 0.09-0.1/W, presenting significant price divergence. In the U.S., market prices were influenced by policy uncertainties, resulting in less demand. Manufacturers delivered TOPCon modules at USD 0.23-0.28/W this week, slightly below the previous USD 0.28-0.3/W level. The price gap between PERC and TOPCon modules was USD 0.015-0.03/W. InfoLink’s weekly spot price updates will include prices for U.S.-made modules based on market movements.