New polysilicon orders see prices pare rise while mid-to-downstream prices sustain

Polysilicon

After the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the polysilicon sector saw stronger efforts to maintain prices, leading to a slight increase in new order prices. Supply has decreased for four consecutive months, with a 2% month-on-month drop, marking the lowest monthly production level this year. While inventory on the supply side has fallen, the demand side is still stockpiling.

The market has been complicated. New orders saw a small price rebound after weeks of anticipation. The price range for China-made polysilicon chunks widened to RMB 37.5-43/kg, averaging RMB 40/kg, with new order prices trending upward. However, some buyers still hold considerable polysilicon inventories or fulfill earlier orders at lower prices. Demand for new orders is weak, as some makers keep lower utilization rates. Price ranges for China-made granular polysilicon also widened, with fewer low-price offers. While most manufacturers still fulfilling earlier orders, new deliveries may see price hikes.

Buyers and sellers have different approaches, and buyers vary in their strategies. Whether the slight price increase for new orders will continue in the fourth quarter depends on leading polysilicon suppliers and the fierce competition within the supply chain, especially as module prices continue to weaken.
 

Wafer

Few orders were delivered around the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. Wafer trading prices stayed flat this week amid buyer-seller standoffs, while no buyers accepted quotes at RMB 1.15/piece for 183N wafers and RMB 1.3/piece for 210RN ones this week.

Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers sat at RMB 1.25/piece and RMB 1.7-1.75/piece this week. For n-type wafers, prices were mostly traded at RMB 1.06-1.08/piece, RMB 1.5/piece, and RMB 1.23-1.25/piece for 183N, G12, and G12R wafers, respectively. Yet, few buyers accepted RMB 1.1-1.15/piece for 183N wafers.
 

Cell

This week, low-price ranges for p-type M10 and G12 cells dropped to RMB 0.265/W and RMB 0.275/W, averaging RMB 0.265-0.285/W and RMB 0.275-0.29/W, respectively. Despite gradual phase-outs for p-type capacity, M10 cell prices might keep slipping amid oversupply due to module makers' plunging demand.

This week, prices for n-type cells stabilized at RMB 0.27-0.285/W, RMB 0.27-0.29/W, and RMB 0.285-0.29/W for M10, G12R, and G12, respectively. Recently, some cell makers struggled to raise price quotes for G12 to RMB 0.29/W amid steady demand and tight supply. Further price hikes hinge on module makers’ acceptance.

The market has remained unchanged during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday this week. Although cell production in September saw a month-on-month decline, cell prices might be sustained in the short term as the upstream price hike pressures the cell sector amid flat module demand.
 

Module

Average module prices stabilized at RMB 0.75-0.77/W this week due to fewer deliveries after the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. Prices came in at RMB 0.68-0.73/W for ground-mounted projects, RMB 0.67-0.8/W for distributed generation projects, RMB 0.67-0.78/W for PERC glass-glass 182mm modules, and RMB 0.8-0.93/W for HJT modules. Utility-scale projects fell toward lower prices while module makers sustained prices at nearly RMB 0.9/W. For BC modules, the price gap between p-type IBC and TOPCon remained at RMB 0.02/W, while that with n-type TBC price quotes narrowed to RMB 0.03-0.05/W.

Notably, given recent falling tender prices for centralized procurement projects, prices for TOPCon modules among Tier-1 makers reached below RMB 0.7/W. As module makers have been cutting prices to grab orders aggressively amid sluggish demand and inventory accumulation, module prices will hardly rebound.

Module prices in non-China markets stayed flat this week. HJT and PERC modules were delivered at USD 0.12-0.125/W and USD 0.09-0.1/W, respectively. For TOPCon modules, prices varied significantly among regions, sitting at USD 0.1-0.11/W in Asia-Pacific, USD 0.1-0.11/W in Japan and Korea, EUR 0.085-0.11/W in Europe, USD 0.105-0.12/W in Australia, USD 0.085-0.11/W in Brazil, and USD 0.1-0.11/W in the Middle East. For utility-scale projects, prices approached below USD 0.1/W in the Middle East and USD 0.09-0.11/W in Latin America. Previous orders were delivered at USD 0.15/W, while new orders were at USD 0.09-0.1/W, presenting significant price divergence. In the U.S., market prices were influenced by policy uncertainties, resulting in less demand. Manufacturers delivered TOPCon modules at USD 0.23-0.28/W this week, slightly below the previous USD 0.28-0.3/W level. The price gap between PERC and TOPCon modules was USD 0.015-0.03/W. InfoLink’s weekly spot price updates will include prices for U.S.-made modules based on market movements.