Post-holiday lull concerns four main sectors

Polysilicon

Polysilicon demand remains bleak after the Chinese National Day holiday, with scarce new orders signed, mostly previous orders delivered. Prices stabilize at last week’s level amid buyers' and sellers' cautious attitude.

Prices for China-made polysilicon chunks reach RMB 37.5-43/kg, averaging RMB 40/kg, with mainstream prices for new orders rising. Price declines for the low-price range have slowed down. Despite the subtly rising high-price range, some leading manufacturers sustain prices. Further price trend hinges on downstream sectors’ acceptance as wafer prices keep falling and are unlikely to rebound in the short term. However, some buyers still hold considerable polysilicon inventories and deliver previous orders at lower prices than new orders; some wafer makers keep low utilization rates, leading to sluggish demand for polysilicon purchases.

The market situation is becoming increasingly complex, with varying degrees of price inversion relative to cash cost levels across different sectors. Recently, there has been a rise in delayed payments or defaults, where some companies cannot meet payment deadlines. In response, some makers have resorted to alternative methods to maintain operations, such as offsetting payments with materials. Still, these measures are effectively putting intense strain on the cash flow of some makers, posing substantial challenges to their financial stability. With the fourth quarter approaching, module demand remains sluggish, making it unlikely for polysilicon price hikes.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices mostly stay flat this week. Tier-1 makers sustain prices at RMB 1.15/piece but fail to deliver. No buyer has accepted price quotes of RMB 1.15/piece for 183N wafers amid lackluster demand, while some Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers offer quotes at RMB 1.06-1.08/piece for M10 ones.

Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers sit at RMB 1.2-1.25/piece and RMB 1.7-1.75/piece this week. Most wafer makers halt production for p-type 182mm and sell off at low prices due to its niche market, with RMB 1.1-1.13/piece traded. N-type wafers are mostly traded at RMB 1.06-1.1/piece, RMB 1.5/piece, and RMB 1.23-1.25/piece for 183N, G12, and G12R, respectively. Yet, no buyer has now accepted RMB 1.15/piece for 183N wafers. Some G12R have seen trading prices at RMB 1.3/piece for the high-price range.

As current trading prices for 183N wafers have failed to meet sellers’ expectations, some makers have postponed shipments, leaving a rising wafer inventory level. The current wafer inventory level has reached five billion pieces reportedly, and manufacturers can hardly maintain shipments amid lackluster market demand.
 

Cell

The market cooled down after the holiday. Prices for p-type p-type M10 and G12 cells stay at RMB 0.26-0.285/W and RMB 0.28-0.29/W, respectively. While most makers plan to halt p-type capacity gradually starting in Q4, cell prices still hinge on further module demand.

Prices for n-type M10 cells remain at RMB 0.26-0.28/W this week, averaging RMB 0.27/W. For n-type G12R and G12 cells, average prices are on par with last week’s level, reaching RMB 0.27-0.29/W and RMB 0.285-0.29/W, respectively. According to cell manufacturers, the average production efficiency reached 25% due to production line optimization and ongoing improvements. InfoLink also expects to adjust the efficiency standard for TOPCon cells to over 25.1% starting next week.

Cell manufacturers cut production more in October, causing module production to surpass. While cell manufacturers are trying to raise prices due to better supply and demand expectations, they are limited by declining module prices. As a result, price competition among the sectors will continue in the short term.
 

Module

After China’s National holiday, the average module price slips to RMB 0.7/W amid lackluster demand and constant price declines. Prices land at RMB 0.68-0.73/W for ground-mounted projects, RMB 0.67-0.79/W for distributed generation projects, RMB 0.67-0.76/W for PERC glass-glass 182mm modules, special-spec products, seeing price inversion with TOPCon for new orders. HJT modules can hardly sustain prices, slipping to RMB 0.8-0.88/W, with utility-scale projects falling toward lower prices due to the continued price declines for TOPCon; the average price approaches RMB 0.85/W. For BC modules, the price gap between p-type IBC and TOPCon remains at RMB 0.02/W, while that with n-type TBC price quotes stabilizes at RMB 0.03-0.07/W.

The gloomy order volume in Q4 continues to pressure module makers. In response, they are cutting prices more aggressively to below RMB 0.7/W, even toward RMB 0.65/W in October. Thus, module prices will hardly rebound in the short term.  Falling prices in Chinese tenders show companies are competing aggressively, with some temporarily giving up profits just to win orders.

Module prices in non-China markets stay flat this week. HJT and PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.12-0.125/W and USD 0.09-0.1/W, respectively. For TOPCon modules, prices vary significantly among regions, sitting at USD 0.1-0.11/W in Asia-Pacific, USD 0.1-0.11/W in Japan and Korea, EUR 0.085-0.11/W in Europe, USD 0.105-0.12/W in Australia, USD 0.085-0.11/W in Brazil, and USD 0.1-0.12/W in the Middle East. For utility-scale projects, prices approach below USD 0.1/W in the Middle East and USD 0.09-0.11/W in Latin America. In the Middle East, previous orders are being delivered at USD 0.11-0.12/W, while new orders are at USD 0.09-0.1/W, reflecting significant price divergence. In the U.S., market prices are influenced by policy uncertainties, resulting in less demand. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.23-0.28/W this week, slightly below the previous USD 0.28-0.3/W level. The price gap between PERC and TOPCon modules reaches USD 0.015-0.03/W. InfoLink’s weekly spot price updates will include prices for U.S.-made modules based on market movements.