Modules poised for potential price hikes

Polysilicon

Overall market sentiment has been bearish since the beginning of Q4. Trading activities in the polysilicon sector are inactive, with most buyers consuming their stocks. Prices for China-made polysilicon chunks stay unchanged at RMB 37.5-42/kg and averaged RMB 40/kg. Prices for granular polysilicon stay at RMB 36-37/kg and averaged RMB 36.5/kg. In non-China markets, prices are more concentrated due to fewer manufacturers, with price gap widening for polysilicon of different quality, while trading volume is declining gradually. Buyers who pursue non-China made polysilicon have been negotiating prices with sellers since the middle of this year.

Outlook for production plans across the supply chain is not optimistic. Demand for polysilicon might weaken, while supply remains surplus in terms of production and capacity. Coupled with existing inventories, causing pressure on polysilicon spot prices that have been poised to rise. Spot price trend for polysilicon toward the year end seems pessimistic.

Among the top five largest manufacturers, four of them have scaled down utilization rates and output by different degrees. The top five’s strategies for Q4 could impact the spot prices.
 

Wafer

Trading prices for wafers lost ground this week. As manufacturers continue selling off 183N products, prices slipped markedly, with pessimistic market sentiment. Some manufacturers even sold 183N and 210RN at a price of RMB 1-1.05/piece and RMB 1.2/piece, respectively.

P-type wafers are traded for RMB 1.2-1.25/piece for M10 and RMB 1.7/piece for G12 format. Most manufacturers have stopped producing 182P wafers and the market saw such products being undersold at a price lower than RMB 1.1/piece. For n-type wafers, the mainstream trading prices for 183N arrive RMB 1-1.05/piece and even under RMB 1/piece. Panic selling caused prices to decline on the market. The trading prices for G12 and G12R reach RMB 1.45-1.5/piece and RMB 1.2-1.23/piece, respectively.

Moving forward, the wafer market will face huge sales pressure. As the trading prices for 183N format failed to meet buyers’ expectation, manufacturers halt delivery temporarily, while wafer inventory continues to pile up. The current inventory level has reached around 5 billion pieces. Amid sluggish market manufacturers will face difficulty making delivery.
 

Cell

Prices remain flat this week. Prices for p-type M10 and G12 format stay at RMB 0.26-0.285/W and RMB 0.28-0.29/W, respectively. With most manufacturers shutting down p-type production lines, capacities and demand are both declining. P-type cell prices are expected to remain stable in the future.

Regarding n-type, prices for all formats remain the same. Prices for M10 range from RMB 0.26-0.28/W and averaged RMB 0.27/W. Prices for G12R ranged RMB 0.27-0.29/W and averaged RMB 0.28/W, while that for G12 is RMB 0.285-0.29/W and averaged RMB 0.285/W.

Same as the previous week, cell makers attempt to raise prices by cutting production this month. However, module prices continue to fall, while wafer prices slipped this week, limiting the bargaining power of the cell sector. Leading manufacturers that produce n-type M10 cells struggle to keep prices at RMB 0.27/W, resulting in a buyer-seller standoff.
 

Module

Prices have been falling continuously this week. Overall prices for ground-mounted projects come in at RMB 0.65-0.7/W, while that for distributed generation projects for small customers hover at RMB 0.7-0.73/W. The average prices move downwardly toward RMB 0.68-0.7/W. Prices for 182mm bifacial PERC modules sit at RMB 0.67-0.76/W and even saw prices reversing between TOPCon for new orders, as such product has become customized product. Prices for HJT modules stay at RMB 0.8-0.88/W, with that for utility-scale projects reaching the low-price range. Impacted by falling TOPCon module prices, HJT modules have hardly sustain prices, with average price coming close to RMB 0.85/W. BC modules face the same situation, with price gap widening recently. The price gap between P-IBC and TOPCon reach RMB 0.02/W, while that between N-TBC has a gap of RMB 0.05-0.07/W.

Given impact of prices on the market, industry organizations are calling for joint efforts recently. Yet, it hinges on market demand, which is weaker than before due to different factors. Whether manufacturers can align their strategies and how much buyers can accept remains to be seen.

Prices remain stable in non-China markets this week. HJT module prices stay at USD 0.12-0.125/W. PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.07-0.1/W. TOPCon modules saw clear price diversification, with that in the Asia Pacific sitting at USD 0.09-0.11/W and USD 0.10-0.11/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China sit at USD 0.09-0.1/W; prices ranged from USD 0.105/W to USD 0.12/W in Australia. Demand in Europe is weaker, with prices sitting at EUR 0.085-0.11/W. The Brazilian market is reportedly underselling modules, with prices ranging from USD 0.07/W to USD 0.11/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.10-0.12/W and within USD 0.1/W for utility-scale projects, while previous orders are delivering at USD 0.11-0.12/W and new orders are signed at USD 0.09-0.10/W, a bigger price gap. The Latin American market saw a price of USD 0.09-0.11/W.

In the U.S., prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.23-0.28/W, while previous orders are delivered at USD 0.28-0.3/W. PERC and TOPCon modules saw a price gap of USD 0.015-0.03/W. InfoLink will provide prices for locally made modules depending on the market situation.