Polysilicon remains weak while wafer prices slightly decrease

Polysilicon

The overall market sentiment stays bearish this week. Trading activities in the polysilicon sector are inactive, with most buyers consuming their stocks. Prices for China-made polysilicon chunks stay unchanged at RMB 37.5-42/kg and average RMB 40/kg. Prices for granular polysilicon stay at RMB 36-37/kg and averaged RMB 36.5/kg. In non-China markets, prices are more concentrated due to fewer manufacturers, with the price gap widening for polysilicon of different quality, while trading volume is declining gradually. Buyers who pursue non-China-made polysilicon have been negotiating prices with sellers since the middle of this year.

The hesitancy in demand is mainly due to the pessimistic outlook on overall module shipment and production plans in the fourth quarter. Reducing ingot production impacts the demand for polysilicon, while supply levels have not shrunk. As of this week, existing inventories keep rising. Even though most manufacturers reduced utilization rates and lowered production, stockpiles continue to grow. Further production cuts are likely in the mid to late fourth quarter. Additionally, material usage and purchasing around the Lunar New Year should be planned. There have been many discussions lately with unclear information, requiring further observation.
 

Wafer

The pessimistic wafer market sentiment remains, and manufacturers adjusted quote prices to RMB 1.1/piece, RMB 1.25/piece, and RMB 1.45/piece for 183N, 210RN, and 210N wafers. While trading prices for 183N wafers still differ from their quote, the other two formats have been sold at quote prices.

Demand for p-type wafers remains weak, with little demand from China. Most transactions are for producing cell exports. M10 and G12 wafers are traded at RMB 1.15-1.2/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. Given low production, manufacturers are clearing out 182P wafers at lower prices below RMB 1.05-1.1/piece.

For n-type wafers, the mainstream trading prices for 183N remain at RMB 1-1.05/piece. While the top five manufacturers stick to prices at RMB 1.1/piece, Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers continue to sell under that price. The trading prices for G12 and G12R reach RMB 1.45-1.5/piece and RMB 1.2-1.25/piece, respectively.

Moving forward, the wafer market will face huge sales pressure. It's uncertain if manufacturers' new prices will result in deals, as buyers and sellers are still negotiating. With weak year-end demand, manufacturers will still struggle to sell their products.
 

Cell

Average prices for p-type M10 and G12 cells remain flat at RMB 0.28/W and RMB 0.285/W this week; spot prices sit at RMB 0.26-0.29/W and RMB 0.275-0.29/W, respectively. Notably, the RMB 0.29/W high-price range for M10 was driven by some module makers’ customized requirements for screen printing patterns, leading to a premium.

Regarding n-type, prices for all formats remain the same. Prices for M10 range from RMB 0.26-0.28/W and averaged RMB 0.27/W. Prices for G12R ranged RMB 0.27-0.29/W and averaged RMB 0.28/W, while that for G12 is RMB 0.28-0.29/W and averaged RMB 0.285/W.

Cell prices have seen little change in October. Reportedly, some cell makers may consider further price cuts in November due to slipping wafer prices and inventory buildup. The market outlook for Q4 remains pessimistic. However, further price trends for cells will hinge on production plans and whether price protection policies in other sectors can be implemented, easing the buyer-seller standoff.

With the current average mass production efficiency reaching over 25%, Prices for TOPCon cells will be based on a 25.0%+ efficiency starting this week due to production line optimization and efficiency improvement.
 

Module

Module prices start to stagnate this week. While module makers attempt to raise prices by RMB 0.02-0.03/W, none has been traded so far. Further price hikes hinge on market demand and manufacturers’ strategies. Manufacturers have adjusted their production plans for October and November, resulting in a tight supply of mainstream TOPCon modules. However, module price hikes will be unlikely as previous trading prices drop to RMB 0.64/W, with price quotes reaching RMB 0.61/W and low-priced modules disrupting the market.

Trading prices for ground-mounted projects fell this week, averaging at RMB 0.64-0.68/W, while those for distributed generation projects for small customers hover at RMB 0.68-0.73/W. The average prices remain approaching RMB 0.68-0.7/W. Prices for 182mm bifacial PERC modules sit at RMB 0.65-0.76/W and even see prices reversing between TOPCon for new orders, as such products have become customized products. Prices for HJT modules stay at RMB 0.78-0.88/W, with that for utility-scale projects reaching the low-price range and minor prices falling toward RMB 0.7-0.75/W. BC modules face the same situation, given the slipping mainstream prices. The price gap between P-IBC and TOPCon reaches RMB 0.01-0.03/W, while that between N-TBC has a gap of RMB 0.02-0.07/W.

Prices remain stable in non-China markets this week. HJT module prices stay at USD 0.12-0.125/W. PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.07-0.1/W. TOPCon modules saw clear price diversification, with that in the Asia Pacific sitting at USD 0.09-0.11/W and USD 0.10-0.11/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China sit at USD 0.09-0.1/W; prices range from USD 0.105/W to USD 0.12/W in Australia. Demand in Europe is weaker, with prices sitting at EUR 0.085-0.11/W. The Brazilian market reportedly undersells modules, with prices ranging from USD 0.07/W to USD 0.11/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.10-0.12/W and within USD 0.1/W for utility-scale projects, while previous orders are delivered at USD 0.11-0.12/W and new orders are signed at USD 0.09-0.10/W, a bigger price gap. The Latin American market saw a USD 0.09-0.11/W price.

In the U.S., prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.28/W. PERC and TOPCon modules saw a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. InfoLink will provide prices for locally made modules depending on the market situation.