Price trend varies as China tax rebate affects global pricing

Polysilicon

This week, the upstream polysilicon sector saw no significant recovery in trading volumes. Recent industry discussions have focused on manufacturers adjusting utilization rates in November and December, aiming to regulate the supply chain. However, inventory E&O remains unresolved, and weak demand has prolonged the uncertainty surrounding module orders into the first quarter of next year. The ongoing production cuts from downstream to upstream continue putting pressure on the polysilicon sector. Given the sluggish market conditions, average polysilicon prices may slightly decline in December, though the drop will likely be limited. Attention should be paid to manufacturers’ movements regarding market dumping, as no large-scale sell-offs have occurred yet. Some manufacturers are relying on strategic order payments to manage year-end settlements.

Prices for China-made polysilicon chunks have slipped since last week. This week, some orders were delivered, with Tier-1 manufacturers pricing at RMB 37-40/kg, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 were at RMB 35-37/kg, resulting in significant price divergence. Approaching the year-end and constrained by inventory accumulation, low-price levels have dropped sharply from RMB 36/kg to RMB 35/kg. For China-made granular polysilicon, prices sat at RMB 35.5-36/kg, averaging RMB 36/kg. Currently, granular polysilicon faces minimal inventory pressure. Non-China polysilicon prices held steady this week, with mainstream delivery prices staying at USD 19-23/kg.
 

Wafer

The supply and demand for 210RN wafers remained weak this week, with prices still declining. Due to the recent cut in China's export tax rebate, manufacturers started to raise price quotes for non-China markets.

Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers reached RMB 1.1-1.15/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively, with 182P sustaining at RMB 1.1-1.2/piece as wafer makers have cut production.

For n-type wafers, the mainstream trading price for 183N remained flat this week, with major shipments priced at RMB 1.03/piece. However, attempts to raise price quotes have been unlikely, with reports of prices as low as RMB 1.02/piece seen sporadically. G12R wafer price declines continued, with trading prices landing at RMB 1.14–1.16/piece, and lower prices will be likely. G12N wafer prices stabilized at RMB 1.4/piece.

The export tax rebate for non-China shipments has been reduced from 13% to 9%. In response, manufacturers have raised their price quotes by 4-5%. However, actual prices still hinge on final delivery prices.

The supply-demand dynamics remain divergent by format, but this also interacts with poor end-user demand. Despite the constant tight supply of 183N products, manufacturers are still struggling to raise prices as the year-end procurement demand declines. Meanwhile, there are two opposing views on the December demand outlook. One group believes December will mark the lowest point of procurement demand, while the other holds expectations for stockpiling before the Chinese New Year. InfoLink believes manufacturers may expand holidays or cut production during the Chinese New Year period amid this bottom-low market sentiment.
 

Cell

Average prices for p-type M10 and G12 cells remain flat at RMB 0.275/W and RMB 0.28/W this week; prices sit at RMB 0.26-0.28/W and RMB 0.27-0.285/W, respectively.

For n-type cells, the average price of M10 rose from last week's RMB 0.275/W to RMB 0.28/W, with the low-price range also rising from RMB 0.27/W to RMB 0.275/W, ranging from RMB 0.275-0.28/W this week. This week, prices for G12R and G12 cells remained unchanged, averaging RMB 0.27/W and RMB 0.285/W, ranging from RMB 0.27-0.275/W and RMB 0.28-0.29/W, respectively.

Price hikes for n-type M10 cells are primarily driven by year-end deliveries, reduced China's export tax rebate rate, and tightened supply from the early delivery of non-China orders. Their mainstream average price has increased to RMB 0.28/W this week. In response to the reduction in China's solar export tax rebate rate, many manufacturers have raised price quotes for non-China clients as of this week. Most orders with raised prices will be delivered starting next week, i.e., from December. InfoLink also expects to adjust USD prices next week.
 

Module

This week, TOPCon module prices remained stagnant at RMB 0.6–0.7/W, with few previous orders delivered above RMB 0.7/W. Lower prices at RMB 0.6–0.65/W were available. Some manufacturers, facing inventory pressure and year-end payment risks, have started lowering price quotes, with some reported slightly below RMB 0.6/W. Prices for distributed projects have seen a slight slip but remain stable at RMB 0.68-0.73/W on average. While bidding prices are stabilizing and testing upwards of RMB 0.7/W, transactions at RMB 0.7-0.72/W are still limited due to weak demand.

Prices for other formats stabilized this week as most module makers wait to see if prices will recover. Prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules sit at RMB 0.65-0.76/W, and prices are even reversing between TOPCon for new orders, as such products have become customized products. Prices for HJT modules stay at RMB 0.75-0.875/W, with utility-scale projects reaching lower prices at RMB 0.75-0.8/W and minor prices falling toward RMB 0.7-0.73/W. BC modules also see price hikes. Prices for N-TBC reportedly reach RMB 0.79-0.82/W.

Discussions on non-China export tax rebates from 13% to 9% continue this week. Manufacturers have accounted for adjustment and are negotiating price increases of USD 0.02-0.03/W, but weak end-market demand makes implementation unlikely.

Non-China markets are delivering previous orders, and overall prices have slipped. HJT module prices sit at USD 0.095-0.115/W. PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.07-0.09/W. TOPCon modules see clear price diversification, with that in the Asia Pacific at USD 0.085-0.10/W and USD 0.09-0.10/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, with minimal difference between PERC and TOPCon ones. Modules are delivered at USD 0.095-0.11/W in Australia. Given sluggish European module demand and severe selloffs, some modules are delivered at EUR 0.08-0.09/W, while futures sustain delivery at EUR 0.09-0.10/W. The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.09-0.095/W. Brazil reportedly undersells modules, with prices diverging around USD 0.07-0.095/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.09-0.105/W and within USD 0.1/W for utility-scale projects.

In the U.S., prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.27/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. Price quotes for new orders constantly fall, with prices likely dropping further in 1Q25. Local-made price quotes reach USD 0.27–0.3/W, while non-local-made ones are at USD 0.18–0.22/W. InfoLink will provide prices for locally made modules depending on the market situation.