Polysilicon, module prices sustain after production cut agreement

Polysilicon

A recent industry self-regulation meeting saw various players discussing production quotas and other allocation strategies for the upcoming year to restore a steady and healthy development through collective self-regulation among makers. The market has shifted from last week's bleak sentiment. Given the expected impact of self-regulation and unsustainable cost pressures, polysilicon makers have attempted price hikes this week, with reported quotes at RMB 42-45/kg. Yet, price quotes have failed to get traded due to buyers.

This week, price quotes for China-made polysilicon chunks and granular polysilicon stay at RMB 37-39/kg and RMB 35.5-36/kg, respectively. Price declines have ceased thanks to recent events.

At year-end, manufacturers face pressures such as financial reporting and performance targets, which may cut production this month and temporarily ease inventory growth. However, stock levels remain high. Inventory depletion may take at least three months via lower utilization rates. Thus, raising price quotes may be unlikely.
 

Wafer

The overall wafer inventory level has plunged to 22-24 GW amid recovered supply-demand dynamics this week, bringing price rebounds.

Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers have reached RMB 1.1-1.15/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively, with 182P sustaining at RMB 1.1-1.2/piece as wafer makers have cut production.

For n-type wafers, mainstream trading prices for 183N are moving upward this week, with major shipments reaching RMB 1.05/piece. G12R still sees slipping trading prices, with delivery prices landing at RMB 1.14/piece and approaching RMB 1.12/piece. G12N stays at RMB 1.4/piece.
 

Cell

Average prices for p-type M10 and G12 cells remain flat at RMB 0.275/W and RMB 0.28/W this week; prices sit at RMB 0.26-0.28/W and RMB 0.27-0.285/W, respectively.

For n-type cell prices, M10 stays at RMB 0.275-0.28/W, averaging RMB 0.28/W. G12 remains at RMB 0.28-0.29/W, averaging RMB 0.285/W. G12R sits at RMB 0.265-0.275/W, averaging RMB 0.27/W.

In non-China markets, prices for n-type M10 cells have increased from USD 0.037/W to USD 0.038/W. Orders with higher prices due to reduced export tax rebates are delivered this week. Exchange rate changes have led to higher USD prices, prompting some manufacturers to renegotiate prices with overseas clients.

Considering cell transport, delivery, and module production, cell demand and prices after mid-December depend on module manufacturers' January production plans. In the long term, pricing and strategies remain unclear after recent industry meetings. With weaker bargaining, cell prices will rely on further market developments.
 

Module

Prices stay stable this week. Module makers test increases after recent meetings, with leading manufacturers raising quotes by RMB 0.02-0.03/W, some exceeding RMB 0.7/W.

Prices have not increased, and weak demand may last until next quarter, with module makers’ order intakes affected. High inventory levels and low-priced sales are still impacting prices. This week, prices remain at RMB 0.6-0.73/W, with few previous orders delivered above RMB 0.7/W. Modules still see the low-price range of RMB 0.6–0.65/W, with some reportedly dropping below RMB 0.6/W. Prices for distributed generation projects have slipped slightly, but the average trading prices are RMB 0.63-0.73/W.

Prices for other formats remain stable this week as most module makers wait to see if prices will recover. Prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules sit at RMB 0.65-0.7/W and are even reversing with TOPCon for new orders, as such products have become customized.

HJT modules are priced at RMB 0.73-0.87/W, with utility-scale projects reaching lower prices at RMB 0.73-0.8/W and minor prices falling toward RMB 0.7/W. New tender prices will be out next week, and adjustments will be made in response to market conditions. Notably, some HJT manufacturers may cut production in December due to weak demand.

Regarding BC modules, prices for N-TBC have reportedly reached RMB 0.70-0.82/W.

This week, prices in non-China markets stay the same. Markets have seen deliveries for previous orders with a flat average price. HJT module prices sit at USD 0.095-0.115/W. PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.07-0.09/W. TOPCon modules see clear price diversification, with that in the Asia Pacific at USD 0.085-0.10/W and USD 0.09-0.10/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, with minimal difference between PERC and TOPCon ones. Modules are delivered at USD 0.095-0.11/W in Australia. Given sluggish European module demand and severe selloffs, some modules are delivered at EUR 0.075-0.08/W, while futures sustain delivery at EUR 0.09-0.10/W. The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.09-0.095/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.07-0.095/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.09-0.105/W and within USD 0.1/W for utility-scale projects.

In the U.S., prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.27/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. Price quotes for new orders constantly fall, with prices likely dropping further in 1Q25. Local-made price quotes have reached USD 0.27–0.3/W, while non-local-made ones are at USD 0.18–0.22/W. InfoLink will provide prices for locally made modules depending on the market situation.