Price hikes simmer amid Lunar New Year production uncertainties

Polysilicon

This week, polysilicon futures trading will officially commence on December 26, with the initial benchmark price set at RMB 38,600/MT. External capital may flow into the market, potentially causing larger short-term price volatility.

•    While the current inventory level remains high, the market is hovering at the bottom, prompting manufacturers to announce production cuts to control supply volumes.

•    Production plans for January require further monitoring. Overall, polysilicon inventory has plateaued from previous highs, gradually stabilizing stock levels.

•    Most polysilicon producers are now signing January orders, maintaining steady shipments to alleviate inventory pressures gradually.

The effects of these strategic adjustments are not yet evident and will require time to fully manifest.

With the launch of futures trading, futures traders have been more active. Although a few are traded at higher prices of RMB 42-43/kg, volumes remain small and are yet to influence average spot prices.

For wafer producers’ procurement: Price quotes for China-made polysilicon chunks and granular polysilicon stay at RMB 37-41/kg and RMB 35.5-36/kg, respectively.

Market uncertainties in 2025 and the impact of industry self-regulation will take time to assess. Prices have been at the bottom, and future trends will hinge on manufacturers’ strategies. Monitoring adjustments from both buyers and sellers is key, especially with the potential impact of pre-holiday stocking in January.
 

Wafer

This week marks the final week of 2024, with supply-demand dynamics for wafers remaining stable. Meanwhile, most wafer producers have recently coordinated to raise prices for January 2025 quotes:

183N wafers: Raised to RMB 1.1/piece.

210RN wafers: Raised to RMB 1.25/piece.

210N wafers: Raised to RMB 1.45/piece.

These reflect price hikes ranging from 3% to 12%.

These adjustments align with the industry self-regulation agenda discussed at the CPIA year-end conference, indicating that the topic is gradually gaining traction and impacting the market.

Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers are RMB 1.1-1.15/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. As p-type wafers have become customized products, demand from China has dropped sharply, with sales mainly driven by non-China orders.

N-type wafers this week:

M10 183N: Mainstream trading prices remain flat at RMB 1.05/piece, with limited room for further price cuts at current production and sales levels.

G12R: Trading prices keep dropping, with the current price at RMB 1.12/piece and formats shifting to 182.3*183.75mm.

G12N: Prices stay at RMB 1.4/piece.

2025 outlook:

Despite recent price hikes in manufacturers' quotes for the upcoming month, wafer price trends will still partially depend on their respective supply-demand dynamics. 210RN is experiencing weak supply and demand, making it hard for trading prices to rise significantly. Price hikes for 183N and 210N are more likely, especially for 183N, where some manufacturers have reportedly secured orders by year-end due to strong stockpiling demand.
 

Cell

Average prices for p-type M10 and G12 cells remain flat at RMB 0.275/W and RMB 0.28/W this week; prices sit at RMB 0.26-0.28/W and RMB 0.27-0.285/W, respectively.

N-type cells:

M10: Average price has recovered from RMB 0.275/W to RMB 0.28/W, with higher price increasing to RMB 0.29/W. The price range is RMB 0.27-0.29/W.

G12R: Average price sits at RMB 0.265/W, with higher price increasing to RMB 0.275/W and prices this week at RMB 0.26-0.275/W.

G12: Prices have sustained, with an average of RMB 0.285/W and a range of RMB 0.28–0.29/W.

Looking ahead to next year, n-type wafer manufacturers are planning price hikes, and cell manufacturers are reducing production while raising January quotes. This week, M10 and G12R cells have reached RMB 0.29/W and RMB 0.275/W, driven by manufacturers adjusting prices after accepting higher wafer costs, with orders already delivered. However, the module sector's acceptance is uncertain, and whether the higher prices will be widespread remains to be seen.
 

Module

Module prices remain stagnant this week. Despite module makers raising price quotes last week, actual price hikes have failed this week. Sluggish demand will likely persist until 1Q25, as seen in module makers’ order volumes. Higher inventory levels and low-priced selloffs still impact market prices. Spot prices are rapidly declining, with sell-off prices reaching RMB 0.4-0.5/W. Module prices hold at RMB 0.6-0.73/W this week, with few previous orders delivered above RMB 0.7/W, but low prices of RMB 0.6–0.65/W persist, with some low-priced orders likely to be delivered by year-end. Lower prices for distributed generation projects keep slipping, with trading prices at RMB 0.63-0.73/W.

Prices for other formats:

182mm glass-glass PERC modules range from RMB 0.63-0.68/W, while HJT modules are priced between RMB 0.73/W and 0.87/W. For utility-scale projects, prices tend toward the mid-to-low range of RMB 0.73-0.8/W, with some non-mainstream wattages priced as low as RMB 0.7/W. Delivery volumes have been low recently, with prices remaining unchanged. Delivery reduction affected production plans, with some HJT manufacturers cutting back in December. For BC modules, N-TBC prices sit at RMB 0.68-0.82/W.

This week, module prices in non-China markets stay still. Markets have seen deliveries for previous orders with a flat average price. TOPCon module prices average USD 0.088-0.095/W. HJT module prices sit at USD 0.095-0.115/W. PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.07-0.09/W. However, regions with higher inventory are still clearing out, with TOPCon modules in Europe being sold at EUR 0.05-0.07/W.

TOPCon module prices by region:

Prices range from USD 0.085-0.10/W in the Asia Pacific and USD 0.085-0.095/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, with minimal difference between PERC and TOPCon ones. Modules are delivered at USD 0.095-0.105/W in Australia. Given sluggish European module demand and severe selloffs, prices average at EUR 0.05-0.07/W, while futures sustain delivery at EUR 0.09-0.10/W. The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.088-0.095/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.07-0.09/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.09-0.10/W and within USD 0.1/W for utility-scale projects.

In the U.S., prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.27/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. Price quotes for new orders constantly fall, with prices likely dropping further in 1Q25. Local-made price quotes have reached USD 0.27–0.3/W, while non-local-made ones are USD 0.18–0.22/W.