New prospects for India’s PV industry under the ALMM

India has introduced a series of policy incentives to promote domestic PV manufacturing. Among them, the ALMM mandates that government projects use domestically produced modules listed in the ALMM. For India, where government projects form a significant portion of installations, the ALMM incentivizes local capacity and gradually reduces its reliance on imported modules, profoundly impacting its local PV supply chain.
 

Indian cell and module imports in 2024

Following the reimplementation of the ALMM in April 2024, a pre-policy stockpiling surge drove rising module imports. According to InfoLink’s assessment, India imported 16.5 GW of modules in the first three quarters of 2024, with 11 GW imported in Q1, marking the year's peak. However, following the enforcement of the ALMM, only a few government projects, such as solar-to-hydrogen government initiatives or private projects, have been permitted to use foreign modules. This restriction led to a sharp decline in module imports, with Q2 volumes dropping to 1.9 GW, down 83% QoQ.

In contrast to the downturn in module imports, India's cell imports reached a record high in the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 29.5 GW, far exceeding the 18.1 GW imported throughout 2023. Cell imports continued to grow after the ALMM enforcement, with Q3 imports rising by 18% from Q2 and 36% from Q1.

Source: Assessment of InfoLink based on India’s module import and export data
 

ALMM impacts on the Indian PV supply chain

While the Indian government allows foreign suppliers to apply for inclusion in the ALMM, as of the December 2024 version, the listed module capacity, totaling 62.8 GW, is domestically produced. Only FS Solar India, a subsidiary of First Solar, has foreign ownership among the listed manufacturers, suggesting that foreign manufacturers aiming to be listed in the ALMM must establish local operations and achieve domestic production. The inclusion of non-Indian capacity in the ALMM appears unlikely.

As of 3Q24, Indian domestic module capacity reached 65.8 GW, whereas battery capacity lagged significantly at 13.2 GW. This disparity arises from the technical limitations of local cell makers and the lengthy commissioning cycles required for new cell capacity. The mismatch between module and cell capacity is evident in the divergent trends in import data. While module imports have declined sharply following the ALMM implementation, cell imports have continued to grow. Indian module makers still rely on imported cells to address the supply-demand mismatch. Consequently, India is gradually transforming into a cell-demand-driven market.

Source: InfoLink Database
 

Will the 2026 ALMM for cells reshape India’s PV market?

Following the implementation of the ALMM for modules, the Indian government has announced plans to introduce an ALMM for cells, set to take effect in April 2026. This policy will require manufacturers on the module list to exclusively use domestically produced cells listed in the ALMM, mandating that future government projects use domestic modules assembled with domestic cells.

If the ALMM for cells is implemented as scheduled in 2026, Indian demand for imported cells may follow a similar downward trajectory of the module imports in 2024. However, the Indian government postponed the ALMM in 2023 due to insufficient domestic module capacity and will likely reassess domestic cell capacity before enforcing the new policy.

Hence, 2025 will serve as a critical period for the rollout of the ALMM for cells. Whether domestic cell capacity can keep pace with the rapid growth in module capacity will determine the policy's development after the rollout.

In the long term, India's commitment to energy transition and its push for domestic manufacturing will significantly reduce its reliance on imports for downstream PV products. The ALMM will likely reshape the global PV supply chain and create a new market dynamic.