Post RE+ 2024 highlights and market analysis

RE+ 2024, one of the world’s major renewable energy trade shows, took place on September 9 through 12 in Anaheim, California. This year‘s event brought together numerous companies from the solar, energy storage, hydrogen energy, and other clean energy sectors across the globe, showcasing the strong appeal of the US market. The implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and trade barriers in the future have become focal points of the US renewable energy industry.
 

Policy changes reshape the market

Discussions had already begun regarding the exemption of manufacturing equipment from Section 301 tariffs at RE+ 2024. Following the event's conclusion, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) officially announced the related executive order on September 13 (US time), confirming the news. For more information.

Two US bills have garnered widespread attention from the industry. The first is the American Tax Dollars for American Solar Manufacturing Act, jointly proposed by senators in both parties, which aims to ensure that US manufacturers benefit from government support while limiting Chinese companies from receiving subsidies under the IRA. The second is the Protecting Advanced American Manufacturing Act, introduced by Senator Marco Rubio from Florida, which further restricts the influence of Chinese-funded companies in the US advanced manufacturing sector.

Although the scope of these two bills differs, their common target is to prevent Chinese companies from benefiting from subsidies under the  IRA, thereby protecting US domestic manufacturing. These bills are under review, with US domestic and Chinese-funded enterprises holding opposing positions. If enacted, these bills could significantly impact the US PV supply chain.
 

US presidential election adds odds to lukewarm market

Compared to last year, when the market was gloomy during the expo due to the price collapse in US modules, US module demand in the first half of 2024 has slightly increased compared to the same period last year. While the market was steady during the expo, many manufacturers are reportedly selling off inventories at low prices. Overall, the price decline has eased, but many manufacturers reflected that the market has no sales this year. Factors such as project delays and the upcoming presidential election have led to fewer inquiries from new customers than expected. Aside from changes in US policies, manufacturers also focused on how the election results will impact the industry's development.

During the exhibition, patent disputes once again drew the attention of the industry. Trina Solar filed a lawsuit against Runergy for its TOPCon technology patent. This patent battle further reflects the increasingly fierce global competition in the solar industry.
 

US capacity expansion ramps up

The US market sustains a high growth rate, installing 21 GW of capacity in the first half of 2024, with robust demand for ground-mounted projects. Yet, residential solar continues to see reduced demand due to California's Net Energy Metering 3.0 policy and interest rate shocks.

According to InfoLink’s latest US Market Report, the annual capacity of polysilicon in the U.S. will reach 50,000 MT by the end of 2024; wafer capacity will remain nil, while cell capacity will come in at around 2-5 GW, and module capacity will exceed 35 GW.

From a supply perspective, the U.S. still lacks cell production capacity. Under the pressure of AD/CVD, anti-circumvention measures, and subsidies for end users, companies that can start production in the U.S. early will enjoy a substantial premium. However, unlike last year’s event, this year saw more companies announcing cell expansion plans. Equipment suppliers have also confirmed progress. Although U.S.-made cells will be available by 2024, supply will still fall short of demand in 2025.
 

Product highlights at RE+

Module format for US residential sector:54-cell, monofacial black module is top choice

The US residential market predominantly features small-format, black modules. N-type modules range from 410 W to 445 W, combining aesthetics with performance. Despite the impact of California’s NEM 3.0 scheme, which has weakened demand, black modules remain a major choice in the residential market. At the expo, rooftop solar products highlighted their structural reliability to meet individual consumers' expectations for long-term use.


 

Module format for US ground-mounted C&I sector: Wide wattage range; large bifacial format the majority

Manufacturers displayed large format modules with high power output for utility-scale projects, with most of which featured 72-cell, bifacial designs. 575 W-600 W is the most common for n-type modules for accommodating installation. Moreover, 66-cell and 78-cell designs, 182mm and 210mm modules, and even 182*210mm rectangle ones were also displayed at the expo. This shows demand for high-power bifacial modules and a range of wattage options.

Modules assembled in the U.S.

More manufacturers showcased modules assembled in the U.S. this year, making it the highlight at the expo. Emphasizing the advantages of local production, manufacturers can avoid tariff risks and benefit from additional subsidies, boosting their market competitiveness by producing modules locally


 

Outlook & Challenges

RE+ 2024 highlighted the US PV market's potential but also challenges it faces. Opportunities from policy support are tempered by issues like market competition, patent risks, and supply chain instability. With increasing global trade barriers and policy risks, adapting to these challenges and accelerating local manufacturing are crucial for staying competitive.

Despite these hurdles, the US market's long-term growth is strong. Companies that keep up with market trends and adjust strategies quickly will succeed. InfoLink’s latest market intelligence offering "US Market Report: PV Supply Chain Analysis and Market Prospect " provides market data, policy insights, and trend analysis to help businesses navigate these changes. For more details and insights, contact us via [email protected].