PV supply chain price trends for 2H24

Following the materialization of previous production expansions and a slowdown in global demand growth, overcapacity has become a reality for the PV industry in 2024. Most manufacturers can hardly remain profitable in the harsh market. Price trends for the second half of 2024 will hinge on production plans and business strategies.
 

Leading companies dominated price trends amid highly concentrated polysilicon capacity

After a long-term price collapse, polysilicon prices in China reached rock bottom, dropping below the break-even point at RMB 36-41/kg in July. Thus, many manufacturers planned for production cuts or maintenance and eliminated outdated capacities. Meanwhile, new capacities from leading manufacturers add uncertainty to the market. Given the highly concentrated polysilicon capacity, leading manufacturers will dominate future price trends. Actual productions of each company in the third quarter require further observations. Chinese polysilicon prices will likely rebound slightly at the end of the third quarter if supply was reduced.

Unlike the sluggish Chinese polysilicon market, non-China polysilicon prices sustained at USD 18-24.5/kg due to the scarcity driven by the UFLPA traceability requirements in the U.S. Recent policies have caused instability, such as the U.S.’ AD/CVD investigations in May on cell and module exports from the four Southeast Asian countries. Accordingly, exports from these four countries to the U.S. may be greatly limited, followed by tariff implementations in the fourth quarter, further impacting non-China polysilicon demand and leads to price fluctuations.


 

Wafer prices varied among formats

Wafer prices plummeted in the first half of 2024, falling below the break-even point, given price declines for polysilicon and inventory accumulation. As of the end of July, most products had bottomed out and stabilized. For p-type M10 and G12 wafers, prices sat at RMB 1.25/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. For n-type M10 and G12 wafers, prices reached RMB 1.1/piece and RMB 1.6-1.65/piece, respectively. Notably, G12R wafer prices mostly fell from RMB 1.35/piece in early July to RMB 1.25/piece due to sluggish demand.

Overall, wafer prices in the second half of 2024 are subject to polysilicon sector. As mentioned above, wafers will likely see price hikes if polysilicon prices subtly rebound amid reduced supply in the late third quarter.

However, wafer makers' various business strategies led to price divergence among formats. For instance, as n-type wafers become mainstream products, prices for p-type M10 and G12 will likely stay premiums amid tight supply, while n-type G12 series, especially G12R ones, have seen nonstop price declines recently. Some manufacturers may shift production to smaller formats, given the lower cost-effectiveness of large-size ones. For M10 wafers, the highest capacity share, some manufacturers are trying to raise prices amid considerable inventory depletion. Overall, operating strategies, such as product selection, production volume control, and pricing standards, will be crucial in determining price trends in the second half of 2024.


 

Cell oversupply continues amid pressure from upstream and downstream

As of the end of July, cell prices stayed at the bottom, with prices for p-type M10 and G12 cells both sitting at RMB 0.29/W. For n-type cells, prices for M10 TOPCon cells came in at RMB 0.29/W, while G12R and G12 TOPCon cells were priced at RMB 0.29/W and RMB 0.3/W, respectively.

Since the overall gross profit margin of the cell sector reached below -10%, further price decline narrowed. Prices for M10 TOPCon cells will mostly stay at RMB 0.29-0.3/W in the second half of the year, making it difficult to see another sharp price drop.

Noteworthy, with cell manufacturers completing upgrading from PERC to TOPCon production lines in the third quarter, there are potential variables in supply-demand dynamics among specifications due to the planned production of 210RN.

The cell sector, long constrained by upstream and downstream pressures, will await changes in wafer, module production, and end-user demand. Meanwhile, with constant cell oversupply and inventories remaining high, it will be difficult for manufacturers to turn around in the short term. Prices for the second half of 2024 are unlikely to recover.


 

Module prices remain stable constrained by end-user demand

Due to differences in specifications, project types, and markets, module prices show a divergent trend. At the end of July, prices for M10 TOPCon modules in China sat at RMB 0.76-0.85/W, and M10 PERC glass-glass modules at RMB 0.72-0.82/W.

In non-China markets, falling traditional energy prices in Europe limited demand in July, causing local TOPCon module prices to continue dropping. At the end of July, prices in Europe fell to USD 0.09-0.125/W. Module prices in Brazil and the Middle East came in at USD 0.085-0.12/W and USD 0.09-0.12/W, respectively. For PERC modules, prices in non-China markets were around USD 0.09-0.1/W.

In the second half of 2024, although some module companies are trying to raise prices as prices in the supply chain have bottomed out, continued weak demand and lack of policy supports make it unlikely to absorb the excess supply in the short term. Some manufacturers offer quotes below trading prices to secure orders, further limiting price rebounds. Module prices in the second half are likely to remain stable.


 

Price recovery remains challenging due to slow capacity clearance

As prices in all sectors have reached bottom and manufacturers are operating at a loss, the focus has shifted to the balance of supply and demand and the speed of utility-scale capacity clearance. However, from the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, besides the capacity control by leading manufacturers, some outdated capacities might still receive financial support from cross-industry enterprises or the public sector. Doubled with new entrants, the overall capacity clearance will take time, making it challenging for prices to recover significantly in the short term.

During fluctuations, manufacturers need stronger strategies, such as managing cash flow, integrating capacities, differentiating products, and innovating technology to overcome current price competitions and challenges.