InfoLink shares views on n-type cell market outlook

Senior Analyst Derek Zhao of InfoLink Consulting attended the N-type High-Efficiency Cell Technology Seminar upon invitation of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) on May 25, shedding light on the future of n-type cells.

During the seminar, analyst Zhao combed through production capacities, growths in market share, current efficiencies, yield rates, and challenges ahead of TOPCon and HJT cells. In the report, Zhao shares insights of n-type technology development in wafer, cell, module sectors and other application scenarios.

Manufacturers opt for TOPCon and n-type as PERC efficiency has little room to increase

The trend for large formats results in massive PERC production expansions. As of the first quarter of 2022, there is more than 280 GW of production capacity for large format PERC cells, to which 70 GW of expansions are to be added this year.

As there is little room for PERC cell efficiency to increase further, many manufacturers turn to TOPCon and n-type instead, said Zhao. As of the first quarter, manufacturers claimed to have accumulated 140 GW of production capacity for TOPCon and HJT, respectively. By the end of 2022, TOPCon is expected to reach 50 GW of production capacity (including those under construction), and 80 GW by the end of 2023. HJT will follow suit, with 15 GW of accumulated production capacity by the end of 2022 (including those under construction), and 30 GW by the end of 2023.

In conclusion of his report, Zhao projects shipment volume of high-efficiency cells to increase from less than 4% in 2021 to 9% in 2022. As high-efficiency cell manufacturing technology advances, that figure may reach 34% by 2025, whilst shipment volume exceeds 100 GW for the very first time.

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Speaker

Derek has 10+ years of experience in the PV industry. Prior to joining InfoLink Consulting, he served for Tier-1 solar equipment suppliers, BOM manufacturers, and vertically integrated companies, providing technical supports, as well as market, product, and technology management. Derek now serves as a senior analyst at PV InfoLink, division of InfoLink Consulting. His work primarily involves the analysis of technology routes across the PV supply chain, offering clients clear-cut, up-to-date insights of manufacturing technologies and advice on relevant strategies.