|Date||July 21, 2022|
Upon invitation by ASIACHEM, a Shanghai-based coal chemical consultancy, senior ESS analyst Dr. Fang-wei Yuan shared insights of global electrochemical energy outlook, major energy storage markets, policy frameworks, industrial chain development, and the future of Li-ion battery at the Energy Storage and LFP Anode Material Webinar held on July 12.
The inelastic demand for energy storage increases, as it is the solution to impacts bulk amounts of renewables have on the grid. Global installed electrochemical energy storage capacity has been doubling annually, reaching 10 GWh in 2020, exceeding 20 GWh in 2021, and likely to surpass 40 GWh this year, indicating rapid growth of the market, said Dr. Yuan.
Policy framework is no doubt the major driving force that leads and stimulates the energy storage market. Presently, energy storage policies focus on three aspects, front-of-the-meter (FTM), behind-the-meter (BTM), and energy storage targets.
China’s policy framework and market outlook
In China, two third of the provinces have introduced energy storage policies, including peak regulation, frequency control, and renewables-related policies regarding the generation side. Meantime, more than ten provinces have set energy storage targets, among which, Gansu, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Hebei aim for at least 4 GW of installed energy storage capacity. That is to say, the generation side will be the key to the development of energy storage.
Estimated by policy frameworks and installed PV capacity, InfoLInk projects that China, in an ideal scenario, will have 1,379 MW of demand for solar-plus-storage in 2021, and 3,908 MW in 2022, a 200% increase, based on policy frameworks and installed PV capacity. Although actual installed capacity falls behind assessment of the optimistic scenario, the 300% growth of real installation from 500 MW to 2,000 MW illustrates how policies play a vital role in driving the market forward.
Global supply and demand of Li-ion battery
Dr. Yuan projects demand for Li-ion battery to exceed 500 GWh this year, nearing 750 GWh by 2023, and reaching 2,900 GWh by 2030, of which, the EV industry contributes 90% of the demand. In the near future, energy storage market will surpass consumer electronics market and become the second largest market for Li-ion battery.
As cell manufacturers splurge on capacity expansions, Dr. Yuan expects global cell production capacity to surge pass 2,500 GWh during 2023 and 2025 and reach beyond 4,500 GWh by 2030, with CATL and LG Energy Solution (LGES) accounting for 1,000 GWh and nearly 900 GWh of production capacity, respectively.
For more detailed analysis, contact InfoLink for a video clip from the speech or the sample of 2Q22 Global Solar-plus-storage Market Report.
Senior ESS analyst
Dr. Yuan Fang-wei is a senior analyst with more than six years of experience in R&D in lithium-ion battery and related materials. With expertise in battery storage development, materials, and market forecasting, Dr. Yuan provides comprehensive data and insights of energy storage. Prior to joining InfoLink, Dr. Yuan has worked in China for three years. He holds a doctorate in Chemical Engineering from the National Tsing Hua University.