| Date | April 22, 2025 |
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As China pushes the boundaries of large-scale renewable deployment, its vast desert regions have emerged as both an energy frontier and a testing ground for technological resilience. In this context, JA Solar convened the “Solar Expedition: Roaming the Sea of Sand” forum in Inner Mongolia from April 15 to 18, 2025, gathering stakeholders across government, academia, and industry.
Representing InfoLink Consulting, Head of PV Research Derek Zhao delivered a comprehensive analysis of China’s solar supply chain under shifting geopolitical and policy headwinds, offering insights across three interlinked dimensions: global supply-demand dynamics, cost evolution across the value chain, and the competitive trajectory of high-efficiency module technologies.
InfoLink Derek Zhao from InfoLink Consulting presents on global PV market shifts at the “Solar Expedition” forum in Inner Mongolia.
1. Global Supply-Demand Rebalancing and Market Saturation Risks
Zhao opened by underscoring a structural deceleration in global PV demand, with 2025 growth projected to contract to -3%—a stark reversal from the 62% expansion seen in 2023. Within China, 2025 marks the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with most provinces having fulfilled installation quotas. Meanwhile, recent policy developments—including the “Measures for the Administration of the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation” and Document No. 136—introduce regulatory headwinds that may further temper domestic deployment.
Analysis of international markets, including Europe, the U.S., India, and Brazil, suggests limited headroom for acceleration. In aggregate, ex-China module demand remains sluggish, and while optimistic scenarios point to potential 10% growth, Zhao cautioned that such momentum may prove difficult to sustain.
Against this backdrop, structural oversupply persists, with capacity in every major segment now exceeding 1 TW. Consolidation efforts have struggled to keep pace, placing continued pressure on marginal producers.
2. Pricing Volatility and Cost Compression Dynamics
Following a short-lived rally triggered by China’s April 30 (“430”) installation rush, prices across the upstream supply chain—cells, wafers, and polysilicon—began softening by mid-April. Zhao anticipates modest downward adjustments continuing into May, as the temporary spike recedes and inventory pressures intensify.
At the same time, entrenched pricing positions among Tier-1 manufacturers, coupled with opportunistic price hikes in auxiliary materials, have pushed up production costs across the board. While industry self-regulation has lent a degree of price stability, overall price levels are expected to remain above 4Q24 benchmarks.
In terms of cost structures, the sector has experienced meaningful compression, with integrated TOPCon production costs (ex-VAT) reaching RMB 0.62/W by Q1 2025. However, Zhao noted that further room for cost reduction is limited. In fact, a rebound is possible—current levels are unsustainable, given that they rely on persistent losses across upstream nodes.
3. Shifting Technological Landscape: TOPCon and xBC in Focus
Technologically, TOPCon has entrenched itself as the industry standard, offering a compelling balance between cost efficiency and performance. While xBC technologies outperform in raw power output and have narrowed the cost differential to within RMB 0.05/W, TOPCon still holds significant cost optimization levers. Under current market conditions, only a few players are expected to advance large-scale xBC expansion.
Although xBC’s trajectory points to steady growth, Zhao emphasized that TOPCon is poised to maintain its mainstream status over the next three years, supported by its mature cost stack and deployment flexibility.
About InfoLink Consulting
InfoLink Consulting is a leading market intelligence firm focused on renewable energy supply chains and technology strategy. With a deep commitment to data-driven analysis and strategic forecasting, InfoLink empowers stakeholders across the PV ecosystem to navigate complexity, respond to market inflections, and make informed decisions in a volatile global environment.
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