Surplus cell, module supplies to trigger price war in 2021

Category	Solar Market trends
Author	Amy Fang
Updated	November 19, 2020

The global solar PV market has seen increasing consolidation of leading cell and module manufacturers this year, with the top 10 largest suppliers dominating demand. The additional cell capacity is expected to reach nearly 100 GW globally by the end of this year. The top six largest cell manufacturers and top 10 vertically integrated companies will together account for 97% of total cell capacity additions.

In the module segment, new capacity additions are forecast to hit 70 GW this year, with the top 10 vertically integrated companies representing 78% of the total. Clearly, Tier-1 manufacturers have been ramping up capacity continuously this year. And with strong balance sheet, they are getting even bigger amid the crisis, threatening the business of Tier-2 manufacturers.

Looking ahead, Tier-1 manufacturers will continue to expand. The total cell and module capacity are forecast to reach 366 GW and 377 GW by the end of 2021, respectively, more than double the forecast demand of 143.7 GW. With both older production lines as well as new production lines existing in the supply chain, overcapacity will become even more prominent. This means that manufacturers will need to replace or eliminate older production lines for products of smaller formats in the first half of next year. Prices will also decrease steadily as a result. It’s expected that prices for M6-sized cells will come down to RMB 0.76-0.78/W(USD 0.101-0.104/W) and modules to RMB 1.47-1.48/W (USD 0.196-0.2/W) by the end of June, down 13% and 6% respectively compared with the current level.

InfoLink will take a closer look at the capacity elimination and price trends expected in 2021.

InfoLink will hold a webinar titled “Solar, ESS, Wind Market Trends & Outlooks for 2021” on Dec. 10 to provide more details on challenges and opportunities facing the renewables industry in the post-COVID-19 era. With “Link the value for you” at our core, InfoLink seeks to bring together industry professionals, manufacturers, and end users in the renewable industry to explore solar, energy storage, and offshore wind energy trends.

Key takeaways:

Insights of price trends and policies impacting market developments.
Analysis of challenges and opportunities facing the solar, offshore wind, and energy storage industry.
Technology trends expected in 2021.