Lithium prices remain low, while cell prices drop further

Lithium prices

Lithium prices remain low

Spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate stood at RMB 72,000-75,000/MT as of October 31. The average price was RMB 73,000/MT at the end of the month, down 4.8% MoM. CIF prices for Chinese lithium spodumene concentrate (SC6) came in at USD 735-790/MT and averaged USD 763/MT at the end of the month, down 4.1% MoM.

Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate failed to break the RMB 80,000/MT threshold, bottoming out in early October. The price started to rebound slightly as it approaches RMB 70,000/MT at the end of the month, with the monthly price sustaining at RMB 70,000-79,000/MT. Influenced by lithium carbonate prices, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (SC6) kept falling, with upstream miners offering price concessions amid the low-priced market sentiment. Lithium prices dipped below the early October threshold of USD 800/MT and continued a slight decline.

Lithium salt producers are attempting to sustain prices, with a cost floor of RMB 70,000/MT for battery-grade lithium carbonate, limiting decline in the short-term. As the peak production season for cathode materials and cell makers winds down, downstream inventory pile-up intentions may gradually weaken. With demand unlikely to sustain growth towards year-end, short-term lithium price hike sees insufficient momentum.

Although lepidolite producers have cut production, lithium extraction from lithium spodumene and brine pool production continues to grow, limiting the overall impact on battery-grade lithium carbonate production. The supply of battery-grade lithium carbonate is still increasing, with the total supply remaining higher than the current downstream demand. If battery-grade lithium carbonate prices stabilize at RMB 70,000/MT, lower-grade mines may see further production cuts or halts due to cost considerations. However, as clearing capacity takes time, prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate will continue to hover at the bottom.

As November begins, oversupply pressure may hinder the rebounce of battery-grade lithium carbonate prices. The downward trend of lithium spodumene concentrate prices will also affect lithium carbonate prices. Lithium carbonate prices will continue to face pressure with the subsequent commissioning of low-cost brine pool projects and may experience further declines.
 

Energy-storage cell price

The average price of LFP cells in China has fallen to RMB 0.03/Wh

Prices for LFP cells in China still hover at the bottom in October. As of October 31, the after-tax price range for 280Ah LFP cells was RMB 0.25-0.35/Wh, with an average price of RMB 0.30/Wh, down 3.2% MoM. The price range for 314Ah LFP cells was RMB 0.26-0.35/Wh, with an average price of RMB 0.31/Wh, down 6.2% MoM. Most Tier-2 and Tier-3 cell makers have seen their lowest prices for cells drop below RMB 0.03/Wh. The after-tax price range for 100Ah LFP cells was RMB 0.31-0.37/Wh, with an average price of RMB 0.34/Wh, down 1.4% MoM, a narrowing decline. The 314Ah cells have been adopted in multiple energy storage projects. As production scales up and demand rises, 314Ah and 280Ah cells see no price gap starting Q4.

By the end of January 2024, the after-tax average prices of 280Ah and 100Ah LFP cells were RMB 0.42/Wh and RMB 0.44/Wh, respectively, a nearly 29% decrease compared to October, reflecting the fierce price war for LFP cells this year.

Despite the lower cost of energy storage cells due to falling upstream material costs and upgraded production processes, some makers' lowest prices are approaching or reaching below the current cell production costs. Even without earning profits, they still seek to secure orders for key projects that must be installed and grid-connected by the end of the year. Amid the price competition, downstream customers also place increasingly high demands on delivery timing, project performance, and product quality. Besides pursuing the lowest possible costs, cell makers have started seeking multi-faceted developments, given that cutting prices to secure orders may no longer be sustainable.