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| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | October 14, 2026 |
Lithium ore and lithium salt
Over the past week, prices for both spodumene concentrate and battery-grade lithium carbonate have continued to decline.
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Battery-grade lithium carbonate (spot)
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Spodumene concentrate (SC6, CIF)
This week, lithium salt prices continued to trend downward, driven mainly by expectations of a recovery in supply and uncertainty over the sustainability of downstream demand growth. On the supply side, the Jianxiawo lithium mine project in Jiangxi entered the public notice stage for the proposed acceptance of its environmental impact assessment (EIA) application on October 8. Although the project still needs to obtain relevant approvals before production can resume, market expectations of a recovery in China’s lithium supply have strengthened.
Outside China, some lithium mining companies in Brazil have resumed production, while Zimbabwe reiterated on October 9 that it would not further postpone restrictions on lithium concentrate exports scheduled to take effect in January 2027. Further adjustments to raw material supply and processing structures remain possible.
On the demand side, production schedules for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials continue to increase, but whether end-market battery demand can sustainably absorb the additional output remains uncertain. Against a backdrop of diverging bullish and bearish expectations, market participants have become more cautious, putting downward pressure on lithium salt prices.
Recent supply-demand developments suggest that a gap remains between the sharp decline in futures prices and actual conditions in the spot market. Concerns over slowing demand in Q4 have intensified. However, lithium carbonate production and the increase in imports in October may both fall short of earlier expectations. Together with the continued ramp-up of new LFP cathode material production capacity, the near-term supply-demand balance has yet to show a clear shift toward looser conditions.
As lithium prices have fallen to around RMB 110,000/MT, some downstream companies have begun making more price inquiries and increasing purchases at lower prices. Tradable supply remains relatively limited, spot basis levels remain firm, and registered warehouse receipts have declined, indicating that the physical market still has some capacity to absorb supply. Nevertheless, downstream procurement remains generally cautious, with limited growth in actual transaction volumes. Market participants are paying closer attention to upcoming battery production schedules and inventory changes.
In the near term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of RMB 100,000–120,000/MT. Following the recent sharp decline, downward momentum has weakened, but demand remains insufficient to support a sustained rebound. Over the medium to long term, lithium prices could return to around RMB 100,000/MT as upstream mining supply gradually recovers and new production capacity comes online. However, declining spot inventories, periodic restocking, and adjustments to supply from certain mines are expected to provide some support at lower price levels. The subsequent price trajectory will continue to depend on the pace at which anticipated supply materializes and actual demand for energy storage batteries.
Energy storage cells in China
Over the past week, transaction prices for China’s LFP energy storage cells have edged down, with prices as follows:
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100 Ah: RMB 0.390–0.450/Wh, averaging RMB 0.420/Wh (down 1.8% WoW)
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280 Ah: RMB 0.330–0.390/Wh, averaging RMB 0.360/Wh (down 0.7% WoW)
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314 Ah: RMB 0.330–0.390/Wh, averaging RMB 0.360/Wh (down 0.7% WoW)
The recent sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices has driven down LFP cathode material costs, significantly weakening the cost support previously underpinning cell prices. As raw material prices have adjusted, some downstream customers have begun proactively requesting updated quotes and seeking price reductions in new orders and subsequent procurement negotiations, increasing pressure on cell manufacturers to offer price concessions. However, deliveries for utility-scale energy storage projects continue at a meaningful scale, and prices and delivery schedules have already been locked in for some orders. As a result, mainstream cell formats such as 280 Ah and 314 Ah have yet to see significant price declines, with overall adjustments remaining relatively limited. By contrast, supply-demand conditions are looser for 100 Ah cells. According to recent market research, some manufacturers have experienced inventory buildup, pressure to ship and draw down inventories has increased, and transaction prices have fallen more noticeably.
Looking ahead, the impact of the current decline in lithium salt prices on energy storage cells is gradually extending from raw material costs to order quotations. As downstream customers become more inclined to negotiate prices, the price support that cell manufacturers previously gained from rising raw material costs has weakened. Some new orders have begun to reflect the potential for price reductions resulting from lower material costs. Among different cell formats, 100 Ah cells are expected to face continued downward price pressure due to a temporary buildup of inventories, relatively ample market supply, and more procurement options for customers. By contrast, 280 Ah and 314 Ah cells continue to benefit from ongoing deliveries for utility-scale energy storage projects, keeping demand relatively stable. Their prices are expected to see only minor adjustments in the near term.
Given differences among manufacturers in raw material procurement cycles, inventory costs, and order fulfillment arrangements, declines in lithium salt prices are unlikely to be fully or immediately reflected in cell transaction prices. If lithium carbonate prices remain low, downstream customers may increasingly seek to renegotiate prices. Cell prices still have some room for adjustment, although price trends are expected to continue diverging across different cell formats.
Energy storage system (ESS) in China
For the past week, transaction prices for electrochemical ESS in China have remained stable overall, with prices as follows:
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2-hour DC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS: RMB 0.45–0.53/Wh, averaging RMB 0.49/Wh (flat)
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1-hour AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS: RMB 0.81–0.87/Wh, averaging RMB 0.84/Wh (flat)
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2-hour AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS: RMB 0.52–0.63/Wh, averaging RMB 0.58/Wh (flat)
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4-hour AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS: RMB 0.50–0.55/Wh, averaging RMB 0.53/Wh (flat)
The recent price declines across the supply chain have been concentrated mainly in upstream lithium salts, cathode materials, and certain energy storage cell segments, with limited pass-through to ESS transaction prices so far. Previously, rising cell and raw material costs prompted some leading system integrators in China to attempt to raise their quotes or maintain existing price levels. Although upstream costs have recently fallen rapidly, system integrators have largely maintained their previous pricing structures, with no widespread price reductions yet observed.
On the one hand, ESS orders typically involve lengthy commercial negotiations and delivery lead times, making it difficult to adjust prices for existing contracts in the near term. On the other hand, costs for power conversion systems (PCS), thermal management, fire protection, and other supporting equipment have remained relatively stable. System integrators also tend to wait and see whether raw material prices will remain low before deciding whether to adjust their overall quotes. As a result, there is currently a time lag between changes in upstream material prices and their pass-through to ESS transaction prices.
With procurement demand for ESS projects in China continuing to emerge, ESS prices have yet to show a clear downward trend despite recent declines in upstream material and cell prices. As cell costs decline, downstream project owners and buyers have become more price-sensitive, and some new projects may seek further price concessions from integrators in upcoming tenders and commercial negotiations. However, ESS quotes depend not only on cell procurement costs but also on factors such as storage duration, grid-forming capabilities, equipment configurations, warranty periods, and delivery scope. Significant price differences remain across projects.
In the near term, leading system integrators remain inclined to maintain their quoted prices and profit margins, supported by ongoing deliveries of projects in their order backlogs. ESS transaction prices are therefore expected to remain largely stable at low levels. If lithium salt and cell prices continue to decline and competition in tenders for new projects intensifies, system integrators may face growing pressure to adjust their quotes. Lower raw material costs could then be increasingly reflected in ESS prices.
Regarding industry developments, on October 12, Star New Energy launched its first round of framework procurement for 10 GWh of LFP energy storage cells for 2027, comprising 5 GWh each of 314 Ah cells and larger-capacity cells of 587 Ah and above. This indicates that utility-scale energy storage projects are gradually driving the commercial adoption of higher-capacity cells. Meanwhile, in early October, Inner Mongolia Gaoju Energy Storage announced the contract award results for its 900 MW/3.6 GWh framework procurement of grid-forming PCS, reflecting increasingly stringent requirements for grid-forming capabilities and grid-connection performance in utility-scale energy storage projects.
The actual placement of orders and delivery progress under these procurement arrangements remain to be seen. While these developments are unlikely to change ESS price trends in the near term, the wider adoption of higher-capacity cells and grid-forming technologies could drive continued improvements in ESS capacity configurations, equipment integration, and operational performance over the medium to long term. For system integrators, future market competitiveness will depend not only on equipment procurement costs but also increasingly on system efficiency, grid compatibility, and operational value over the project lifecycle.