Lithium salt prices continue to decline; cell prices edge lower and ESS prices hold steady

Lithium ore and lithium salt

Over the past week, prices for both spodumene concentrate and battery-grade lithium carbonate have continued to decline.

• Battery-grade lithium carbonate (spot)

Price range: RMB 99,000–105,000/MT

Average price: RMB 102,000/MT

Down 6.4% from the previous update

• Spodumene concentrate (SC6, CIF)

Price range: USD 1,450–1,550/MT

Average price: USD 1,500/MT

Down 2% from the previous update

Lithium salt prices remain weak this week, with market attention shifting further from current supply and demand conditions toward expectations for future demand growth and a recovery in supply over the medium to long term. In China, the environmental impact assessment process for the Jianxiawo lithium mine continues to advance, while expectations for production restarts at other mines in Jiangxi have also strengthened. Mines outside China are gradually resuming shipments, and lithium ore inventories at ports are rising, reinforcing expectations of increased raw material supply ahead. Meanwhile, some research firms have lowered their October cell production forecasts, deepening market concerns over a weaker-than-expected Q4 peak season and slower demand growth in 2027, putting further downward pressure on lithium prices.

Notably, the recent price decline has outpaced the actual weakening of spot market supply and demand fundamentals. October lithium carbonate output and import growth may fall short of earlier expectations, while LFP cathode material production continues to ramp up. Inventories continue to decline, while registered warehouse receipts have also decreased. With relatively little material available for trading and the spot basis remaining firm, the physical market has yet to enter a clear surplus. As prices fall to around RMB 100,000/MT, downstream need-based purchasing and some restocking at lower prices are picking up, easing downward price momentum.

In the short term, lithium carbonate prices are more likely to fluctuate around RMB 100,000/MT, with spot inventory drawdowns and buying at lower prices providing downside support. However, expectations of increased supply further ahead will continue to cap upside potential. Over the medium to long term, the supply-demand balance could ease as mines in Jiangxi resume production, new resources outside China come online, and lithium salt production capacity gradually ramps up. Prices are therefore expected to seek a new balance around RMB 100,000/MT. If prices fall further toward breakeven levels for some high-cost resources, supply-side adjustments and improved energy storage economics resulting from lower lithium prices will gradually strengthen price support.
 

Energy storage cells in China

Over the past week, transaction prices for China’s LFP energy storage cells have continued to edge down, with prices as follows:

• 100 Ah: RMB 0.385–0.445/Wh, averaging RMB 0.415/Wh (down 1.2% from the previous update)

• 280 Ah: RMB 0.330–0.385/Wh, averaging RMB 0.358/Wh (down 0.7% from the previous update)

• 314 Ah: RMB 0.330–0.385/Wh, averaging RMB 0.358/Wh (down 0.7% from the previous update)

As lithium carbonate prices continue to fall, LFP material costs are declining in tandem, further weakening the cost support that previously underpinned cell prices. Prices for new orders and sporadic transactions at some manufacturers have already begun to soften. Utility-scale energy storage projects remain on normal delivery schedules, keeping price declines for mainstream large-capacity cells, such as 280 Ah and 314 Ah, relatively modest. The supply-demand balance for 100 Ah cells is looser, resulting in significantly steeper price declines than for larger-capacity cells.

By format, the demand-driven premium previously commanded by cells of 100 Ah and below in residential and small-scale energy storage markets is continuing to fade. Supply of these cell formats is relatively ample, and some manufacturers still face pressure to reduce inventories. Meanwhile, as system designs shift toward higher capacities, some manufacturers have incorporated large-capacity cells, such as 314 Ah and 392 Ah, into residential and small-scale energy storage products. This reduces the number of battery packs required and improves system integration efficiency, while narrowing the scope for traditional smaller-capacity cells. As a result, cells of 100 Ah and below will continue to face some downward price pressure. 

In comparison, 314 Ah remains the mainstream cell format for utility-scale energy storage projects in China, while ongoing deliveries for existing projects also support demand for 280 Ah cells, keeping demand for both formats relatively stable. Although some of the additional costs arising from the consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries implemented in September have been passed on to customers, the larger recent decline in lithium carbonate prices has still driven overall cell costs lower. Prices are expected to remain divergent across cell formats in the short term. Price support for 100 Ah cells remains weak amid relatively ample supply and a shift toward larger-capacity formats, though prices are expected to gradually stabilize following successive declines. Prices for 280 Ah and 314 Ah cells are expected to remain largely stable at low levels, supported by demand from utility-scale energy storage projects.
 

Energy storage system (ESS) in China

For the past week, transaction prices for electrochemical ESS in China have remained stable overall, with prices as follows:

• 2-hour DC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS: RMB 0.45–0.53/Wh, averaging RMB 0.49/Wh (flat)

• 1-hour AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS: RMB 0.81–0.87/Wh, averaging RMB 0.84/Wh (flat)

• 2-hour AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS: RMB 0.52–0.63/Wh, averaging RMB 0.58/Wh (flat)

• 4-hour AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS: RMB 0.50–0.55/Wh, averaging RMB 0.53/Wh (flat)

Standard LFP ESS remains within the low price range established previously, with no clear market-wide upward or downward trend. Price differences across projects primarily reflect storage duration, grid-forming requirements, equipment configuration, scope of supply, and warranty terms. Transaction prices for standardized utility-scale ESS remain broadly stable.

The latest large-scale procurement results in October further indicate that price competition in the ESS segment continues at low levels. On October 14, China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) announced the awards for its 2026–2028 corporate-level centralized procurement of LFP ESS, totaling approximately 2.98 GWh. The awardees were Sungrow, CATL, ZTT Energy Storage, CRRC Zhuzhou Institute, and Kehua Digital Energy. Earlier, 33 companies participated in the bidding, with quotes concentrated around RMB 0.4995–0.5329/Wh. The procurement scope covers ESS equipment design, manufacturing, supply, transportation, installation guidance, commissioning, and after-sales services. It is an equipment procurement contract rather than a turnkey EPC contract. Quotes in utility-scale centralized procurement have once again reached around RMB 0.50/Wh, reflecting an ample supplier base and continued strong competition for projects, while also indicating that standard LFP ESS prices have yet to show a meaningful rebound. ESS prices in China are expected to remain broadly stable at low levels in the short term, with differences in project quotes continuing to be driven primarily by equipment configuration, technical requirements, and scope of delivery.

Further adjustments to export tax rebates for battery products are beginning to bring ESS orders outside China forward. Some integrators report that orders originally scheduled for 1Q27 are being brought forward to 4Q26, providing some near-term support for cell production schedules and ESS shipments. However, this increase primarily reflects orders being brought forward, rather than a corresponding rise in total end-market demand. A potential temporary decline in orders in early 2027 following the export rush will therefore warrant attention. For companies, changes to export tax rebates will increase pressure on cost and margin management for projects outside China. Future quotes will depend more on negotiations with customers, inventory stocking in warehouses outside China, localized delivery, and the ability to reduce supply chain costs. Overall, orders brought forward are expected to support ESS shipments in 4Q26, but could also widen the gap in demand between 4Q26 and 1Q27 and prompt adjustments to ESS pricing framework outside China.