| Category | |
|---|---|
| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | October 19, 2022 |
Polysilicon
Polysilicon production increases steadily this week. Production capacity rise by at least 25% in the fourth quarter, the greatest quarter-on-quarter growth since 2020. Meantime, actual polysilicon production volume will rise every month.
As of mid-October, mono-grade polysilicon prices stabilize at RMB 301-306/kg this week, as manufacturers focus on delivering orders. Prices are little change, despite the market’s anticipation for declines.
The recurring pandemic hits northwest China. Covid restrictions, doubled with rare temperature plunge and unusually early rain and snow in northern China, disrupts logistics of upstream sectors to varying degrees. Such a condition is a new challenge for the polysilicon and wafer sectors, of which production capacities are coming online.
* Investigation of InfoLink covers polysilicon prices at which orders have been delivered from the previous Thursday to this Wednesday and have been signed recently. We track mainstream prices and provide feedback for the industry. Therefore, changes and future price trend will gradually emerge during periods of higher order volume. Prices for sporadic orders are to be heeded.
Wafer
Prices sustain for mono-Si wafers; inventory draws recover after slowing down before the National holiday. Mono-Si wafer supply falls short, as pandemic outbreaks in northwestern China take tolls on production of major manufacturers. Given stronger inventory draws following the holiday, the market still expects prices to drop. Having said that, the outlook for wafer demand improves for now, as downstream sectors manage to keep production and inventory on track. Major manufacturers keep prices sustained, while some of their Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers see prices slip marginally. Further price trend hinges on movements of leading manufacturers by the end of the month.
The sudden Covid resurgence will affect supply-demand relationship from mid-October onwards. Still, current supply and production capacity increases of upstream sectors will hold back price hikes at the end of this month or early next month.
Cell
Cell supply remains short. Manufacturers keep updating price quotes. For M10 cells price quotes reach RMB 1.34-1.35/W, whilst trading prices mount to RMB 1.34/W as module makers keep high utilization rates. Some manufacturers reportedly offer RMB 1.35-1.36/W of price quotes for rush orders. M6 cells see prices sustain temporarily and the low-price range slightly decline as demand wanes.
This week, M6, M10, and G12 cells are traded at RMB 1.31/W, RMB 1.33-1.34/W, and RMB 1.33-1.34/W, respectively.
The cell sector continues to see the biggest shortage across the entire supply chain in October, with prices staying high obstinately. Further price trend hinges on acceptance of module makers.
Module
Glass-glass modules rated beyond 500 W are delivered at RMB 1.95-2.05/W this week, with RMB 0.01-0.03/W of price difference with glass-backsheet ones.
Steady demand underpins prices in China, thanks to the initiation of ground-mounted projects. However, more expensive cells and looming inverter price hikes push up module production costs. Mid and small-scale module makers may trim down utilization rates. It is uncertain when prices will drop during the fourth quarter. Some module makers offer higher price quotes. Overall, price trends in the fourth quarter are inconsistent. Some long-term orders are sealed at lower prices.
In overseas markets, demand slows, as projects for the fourth quarter are delayed to next year. Average prices stabilize at USD 0.25-0.26/W, and the low-price range drop to USD 0.245/W, purportedly. This is largely attributed to exchange rate fluctuation, higher inflation, and inverter shortage. Future development hinges on Fed rate hikes.
This week, module prices (FOB) sit at USD 0.245-0.28/W in Europe, USD 0.245-0.26/W in the Asia Pacific region, and USD 0.25-0.255/W in Brazil. Local module prices in India translate to around USD 0.32-0.36/W (FOB). In the U.S., prices come in at USD 0.55-0.6/W (DDP) for locally made modules.
N-type cell and module
This week, prices remain at last week’s level. The market has yet to see many price quotes for n-type products. We will decide whether to post the spot price of G12 HJT products or not based on mass production activities of all manufacturers.
N-type cells are mainly purchased for in-house capacities, with few external sales. Prices sustain at RMB 1.45-1.6/W for M6 HJT cells and sit at RMB 1.41-1.45/W for M10 and G12 TOPCon cells.
Module prices come in at RMB 2.1-2.15/W and USD 0.28-0.3/W in overseas markets for M6 HJT modules; RMB 2.03-2.05/W and USD 0.27-0.28/W in overseas markets for M10 and G12 TOPCon modules.