| Category | |
|---|---|
| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | July 12, 2023 |
Polysilicon
Mono-grade polysilicon price range narrows this week as the low-price range rebounds from RMB 56/kg to RMB 59/kg. Factoring in prices of previously sealed orders, average prices remain. Future price trend set by leading manufacturers demonstrates strong upward momentum.
Order volumes and negotiations increase as ingot manufacturers raise utilization rates to different extents, resulting in stronger inelastic demand for polysilicon. With polysilicon prices reaching the bottom and approaching the break-even point, the risk of inventory write-down mitigates. Meantime, the impact of other variables wears off. Against these backdrops, buyers start buying the dip and stockpiling, accelerating inventory depletion.
In the third quarter, the polysilicon sector faces more uncertainties, such as power rationing, production restriction, slower-than-expected commissioning progress, and other uncontrollable events. There will be limited increases in monthly polysilicon production capacity. The market prefers cheaper, good-quality polysilicon, potentially resulting in temporary shortages.
Wafer
The wafer sector managed to alleviate inventory pressure through significant price cuts and minor adjustments in utilization rates. For now, inventory level sits at 700 million to 800 million pieces, translating to three to four days of production volume. Operating strategies to control prices and inventory levels vary among manufacturers.
Digesting inventory and shifting some to the cell sector, the wafer sector is poised to raise official pricings upon stronger wafer demand from cell manufacturers.
M10 wafers are traded higher this week, mostly at RMB 2.8/piece, as manufacturers raise price quotes, with some purportedly updating official pricings to RMB 2.8-2.85/piece.M10 wafers sustain a price-performance ratio per watt superior to G12 ones. For G12 wafers, mainstream trading prices drop to levels where Tier-2 manufacturers traded last week, sitting at RMB 3.75/piece, with the range narrowing compared with last week.
Wafer manufacturers have yet to settle new pricings as cell manufacturers still have wafer stocks on hand. Marginal price hikes may be acceptable to the cell sector, which currently sustains a decent profit margin. Despite higher prices, wafer production output keeps increasing, stoking pressure on inventory. This month, wafer manufacturers will continue adjusting utilization rates to regulate prices and inventory levels.
Cell
PERC cell supply is steady. Most expansion projects this year are n-type cell production capacities. TOPCon production capacity comes online slower than expected, prolonging equipment installation and debugging process. Fewer cells are available for external sales, as some cell manufacturers reserve more capacity for in-house usage. The growth of module production capacity boosts demand for the mainstream product, M10 PERC cells.
This week, trading prices advance marginally, coming in mostly at RMB 0.72/W for M10 cells while sustaining at RMB 0.72/W for G12 ones. The absence of price difference between M10 and G12 cells indicates a better-balanced supply-demand relationship of G12 cells.
For M10 TOPCon cells, prices stabilize at RMB 0.78/W. N-type cell prices sustain RMB 0.06/W higher than p-type ones. Also affected by wafer price declines, the few suppliers of G12 HJT cells see prices drop to RMB 0.9/W.
Even with the rise in trading prices, the actual production output of M10 PERC cells is open to question, given power rationing in Chengdu, Sichuan and maintenance plans of manufacturers in August. For now, ordering activity of the module sector stay muted. Cell manufacturers will continue feeling price pressure from module makers.
Module
This week, prices reflect order activities, staying on a gradual decline. Tier-1 module makers take orders for PERC glass-backsheet at RMB 1.3-1.35/W, and their Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers at RMB 1.25-1.3/W.
Module makers keep clearing inventory this week, with prices dipping to RMB 1.2-1.25/W, which is excluded from the low-price range in InfoLink post weekly spot price update. Some module makers still deliver previous orders in the high-price range but fewer at RMB 1.5/W.
For new orders, module makers mostly deliver at RMB 1.28-1.33/W, despite still some delays. Doubled with signs of price hikes in upstream sectors, some module makers look to raise distribution prices by RMB 0.01-0.02/W. Price cuts are likely in the long run as module makers vie for orders. Despite lingering cautious sentiment, some end users begin inventory draws.
For now, module makers take orders for August at RMB 1.28-1.3/W. Already having little profit margin due to high production costs, module makers can hardly cut prices further. Demand and the impact of power rationing are to be heeded in the third quarter. Brief rallies are possible.
In non-China markets, prices stay on a slow decline this week. Chinese exporters deliver products at USD 0.165-0.19/W (FOB). Spot prices come in at USD 0.165-0.18/W in the Asia-Pacific market and EUR 0.165-0.18/W in Europe, with modules with black backsheet possessing a premium of EUR 0.02-0.025/W.
Currently, prices stabilize for locally manufactured modules. In the U.S., prices will sustain in the third quarter of the year, but distribution prices of Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers drag down the low-price range. For India-made modules, prices hold steady for now.
The gap between prices for p-type and n-type modules will narrow at a slower pace this year as PERC module prices drop.
Module makers recently deliver G12 HJT modules at RMB 1.5-1.65/W in China and USD 0.197-0.23/W in non-China markets.
M10 TOPCon module prices remain at RMB 1.4-1.55/W this week. In non-China markets, prices hold steady at USD 0.185-0.215/W, with a premium of USD 0.01/W against prices for PERC modules.