Ground-mounted demand drives up 210N cell prices

Polysilicon

Polysilicon price quotes remain largely stable this week. N-type recycled polysilicon is quoted at around RMB 40–43/kg, with granular polysilicon at around RMB 40–41/kg. Actual transactions indicate that downstream restocking remains largely need-based, with large-volume procurement yet to gain momentum. As producers have been gradually implementing production cuts since the start of October, the resulting supply contraction is beginning to take effect. However, downstream companies still hold a certain level of polysilicon inventory and remain cautious about procurement, keeping overall trading activity slow.

Overall, producers remain focused on selling at no less than full cost, keeping quotes stable for now. Nevertheless, the scale and duration of production cuts by major producers remain to be seen. With inventories continuing to build and downstream demand yet to show a clear recovery, further price increases still lack support from actual transactions. Looking ahead, progress in implementing production cuts by manufacturers, downstream acceptance of current prices, the pace of restocking, and whether recovering wafer prices translate into actual purchases will be key factors determining whether polysilicon trading volumes increase.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices show limited changes this week. Trading activity remains subdued after China’s National Day holiday, with prices across formats largely holding within previous ranges. Transaction prices stand at RMB 0.95–1.00/piece for 183N, RMB 1.03–1.05/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.10–1.15/piece for 210N.

By format, 210N wafers show relative strength this week. As demand from some projects in China gradually materializes in Q4, downstream inquiries and buying interest have improved, lifting some lower-priced transactions above RMB 1.10/piece. Most mainstream transactions now fall within RMB 1.12–1.15/piece. In comparison, demand for 183N and 210RN has seen limited change, with prices showing no significant adjustments so far.

On the supply side, as some facilities resumed production during China’s National Day holiday, wafer output has room to increase in October, with larger formats potentially accounting for a greater share of planned production. On the cost side, polysilicon prices have remained firm overall. Combined with a stronger willingness to hold prices following recent industry meetings, these factors have provided some support for wafer prices. Nevertheless, downstream buyers remain cautious, leaving insufficient momentum for price increases. Overall, with rising supply and cost support both at play, wafer prices are expected to remain largely stable in the near term.
 

Cell prices in China

Average prices for n-type cells this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.3/W (unchanged from pre-holiday levels)

Price range: RMB 0.29–0.30/W

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.31/W (unchanged from pre-holiday levels)

Price range: RMB 0.305–0.320/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.295/W (up)

Price range: RMB 0.29–0.30/W

Weakening demand outside China has led to a MoM decline in 183N production plans for October. However, by mid-month, some manufacturers are planning to restart production lines. Prices have stabilized for now, but a subsequent increase in supply could put downward pressure on prices. 210RN prices remain stable this week. With the market expecting weaker order demand following the U.S. Section 232 measures, prices may adjust downward from late October into November. Meanwhile, stronger ground-mounted demand in China has lifted average 210N cell prices this week, with quotes now moving toward RMB 0.30/W.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P has remained flat at USD 0.047/W this week, with the price range remaining at USD 0.047–0.050/W. Demand for 182P cells outside China remains relatively stable in October, with supply still primarily tied to toll manufacturing orders. Quoted ranges and delivery prices have shown no significant changes.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has remained flat at USD 0.046/W this week, with a price range of USD 0.045–0.046/W. In China, supply of 183N cells has stabilized following production cuts, supporting prices in the near term, though changes in domestic production plans warrant close attention. Meanwhile, 183N cells still account for most of the inventory accumulated outside China through exports ahead of the Section 232 measures. Any return of this inventory to China and its impact on subsequent price trends will require close monitoring.
 

Module

After China’s National Day holiday, module prices remain stable this week.

The overall average price of TOPCon modules in China fell by RMB 0.004/W to RMB 0.719/W, primarily due to a shift in the transaction mix between the ground-mounted and distributed generation segments.

Actual delivery prices for TOPCon modules are around RMB 0.65–0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.68–0.76/W for distributed projects.

Actual delivery prices for BC modules are currently around RMB 0.75–0.77/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.78–0.81/W for distributed projects.

Outside China, the average TOPCon module price has remained at USD 0.114/W.

In the Middle East, regional conflict continues to disrupt shipments and cause logistics delays for most projects. Market transactions remain limited for now, and the latest prices have yet to become clear.

In Europe, module prices have gradually softened in recent weeks as China’s recent energy-efficiency policy has prompted companies to clear inventories of lower-efficiency modules by shipping them outside China, while demand in Europe has remained weak this year. For euro-denominated module prices in the European spot market, please refer to the Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.

In the U.S., the latest Section 232 announcement on August 6 is expected to bring a new shock to price trends. With the minimum import price (MIP) acting as a price floor, both imported and domestically manufactured module prices are expected to rise.

In India, prices for a small number of recent orders have also edged higher, mainly driven by advance stocking amid the impact of the U.S. Section 232 measures. Price increases have been more pronounced for projects not subject to the Domestic Content Requirement (DCR), while changes for DCR projects have remained relatively limited, as demand is primarily driven by the domestic market.