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| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | September 07, 2022 |
*From September onwards, efficiency of M6, M10, and G12 cells will be adjusted to 22.9% and above.
Polysilicon
In early September, manufacturers deliver orders previously signed whilst sealing new ones. Some of them have new orders all settled.
Monthly production volume may exceed 80,000 MT in September, thanks to production resumed in Sichuan and new production capacities coming fully online. However, from a demand perspective, production volume and lead time will appear inadequate until the first half of this month. The ingot sector has yet to see sufficient polysilicon supply. Such tightness is expected to ease in mid-October.
New orders are still signed at RMB 303-306/kg for mono-grade polysilicon this week, slightly higher than those signed previously. As polysilicon shortage persists, the high-price range of trading prices for sporadic orders rises, and major manufacturers can hardly put price quotes higher. Polysilicon prices will plateau, whilst price quotes vary to a greater extent. Buyers start feeling less urgent to purchase.
* Investigation of InfoLink covers polysilicon prices at which orders have been delivered from the previous Thursday to this Wednesday and have been signed recently. We track mainstream prices and provide feedback for the industry. Therefore, changes and future price trend will gradually emerge during periods of higher order volume. Prices for sporadic orders are to be heeded.
Wafer
Wafer production volume will rise in September, but the increase is small, as subject to power cuts in August. Short polysilicon supply will continue affecting ingot utilization rates. In China, as the pandemic re-emerges, local authorities step up restrictions, taking a toll on material supply and production schedule.
As of this Wednesday, mainstream prices for mono-Si wafers sustain, coming in at RMB 9.91/piece for 210mm mono-Si wafers with a thickness of 155μm, and RMB 7.52/piece for the 182mm-155μm format. Prices for M6 mono-Si wafers slip, with low-price level going down, as the product approaches end of life. To hedge market risk, some cell manufacturers seal orders at certain volumes and prices for M6 wafers.
As quality varies, wafer prices start differentiating. 182mm downgrade wafers see marked price decline, whilst prices for a-grade wafers sustain for the time being. Such differentiation may intensify in October.
Vertically integrated companies are using thinner wafers for their in-house capacity. Thickness of 182mm p-type mono-Si wafers is trimmed from 155μm to 145-155μm. N-type products see faster progress, with some manufacturers introducing 140μm-thick wafers. By the end of this year, p-type mono-Si wafers are likely to reach a thickness of 150μm.
Cell
Authorities lifted power rationing. However, manufacturers fail to make up for the ensuing loss of supply by this month. This affects deliveries of cell orders, exacerbating short cell supply.
Leading cell manufacturers update pricings this month. Other manufacturers follow suit, raising price quotes for cells in all formats. Presently, price quotes for M10 cells come in at RMB 1.3-1.31/W, and purportedly RMB 1.32/W. M6 and G12 cells see price quotes sit at RMB 1.29/W and RMB 1.3-1.31/W, respectively.
Expanding businesses to downstream sectors, leading cell makers see external sales volume decrease, as self-use rate of production capacity rises. In September, as module makers increase utilization rates and purchase volumes, cell trading prices advance, coming in at RMB 1.28-1.29/W for M6 cells, RMB 1.29-1.31/W for M10 cells, and RMB 1.3/W for G12 cells. G12 cells see the greatest price hike due to strategic buying spree of module makers.
In overseas markets, prices fluctuate with exchange rates, declining in tandem with the dollar for cells in all formats.
Cell prices will stay elevated amid tight supply this month. Short-term price trend hinges on supply-demand relationship. In the latter part of October, cell prices may show signs of decline, provided with moderate end user demand and steadily increasing cell production output.
Module
Price trend in September hinges on the progress of ground-mounted projects. Schedule module production return to 25-26 GW this month, but adjustments are likely, depending on purchase volume of the cell sector.
Module prices are little changed this week. Trading price range widens for glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W, which are delivered primarily at RMB 1.95-2/W this week. Specifically, delivering prices come in at RMB 1.95-2/W for ground-mounted projects, with low-price range reaching RMB 1.93/W, and at RMB 1.96-2/W for distributed projects. (Inland transport costs are excluded.) Price declines are unlikely this month, as supply chain prices stay elevated.
Prices fluctuate along with exchange rates in overseas markets. Module makers want to adjust prices, but end users seem unwilling to give in. Overall, prices sustain at last week’s level, with low-price range slightly losing ground.
Prices stay at last week’s level at USD 0.265-0.27/W (FOB) in the Asia-Pacific region, and USD 0.27-0.28/W in Australia. In the U.S., prices sustain at USD 0.34-0.38/W, and USD 0.55-0.58/W for locally made modules. In Europe, glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W are delivered at USD 0.263-0.28/W, and slightly lower at USD 0.275-0.28/W on the spot market.
N-type cell and module
The market has yet to see many price quotes for n-type products. This week, prices remain at last week’s level. N-type cells are mainly purchased for in-house capacities, with few external sales. G12 HJT modules may be available by the end of the third quarter. We will decide whether we should post the spot price of G12 HJT products in the fourth quarter of the year, considering mass production activities of all manufacturers.
N-type cells are mainly purchased for in-house capacities, with not many external sales by far. Prices sustain at RMB 1.39-1.5/W for M6 HJT cells and sit at RMB 1.32-1.41/W for M10 and G12 TOPCon cells.
Module prices temporarily sustain this week, coming in at RMB 2.07-2.3/W for M6 HJT modules, and USD 0.29-0.33/W in overseas markets.
M10 and G12 TOPCon module prices stay where they were last week, at RMB 2.07-2.12/W for monofacial ones, RMB 2.1-2.15/W for bifacial ones, and around USD 0.28-0.31/W in overseas markets.