Up to midstream prices remain low, pressuring manufacturers in red

Polysilicon

Upstream polysilicon prices lingered at the bottom with little change this week. As the third quarter began, more manufacturers, including leading companies, expanded the scale of production cuts or maintenance as expected. Still, some adjustments were more drastic than expected as an emergent response to persistent negative profits. Accordingly, production volume will decrease faster in the third quarter of this year.

Although increasingly reduced production benefited inventory depletion, manufacturers still face the dilemma of choosing between existing and new capacities. Whether the polysilicon sector can commission new capacities after delays remains gloomy.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have recently varied among formats. Manufacturers have been discussing price hikes for 182mm and 183mm n-type wafers, thanks to tight supply after previous sell-offs resulting in rapid inventory depletion. Additionally, breaking down by specific specifications reveals that some specifications have limited inventory and are relatively scarce. Some raised price quotes from RMB 1.1/piece to RMB 1.12/piece. For 210mm n-type rectangular (210RN) wafers, prices kept reaching downward amid sufficient supply. Manufacturers are assessing the feasibility of shifting production to wafers of smaller formats.

Prices stabilized at RMB 1.25/piece for p-type M10 wafers and RMB 1.7/piece for G12. For n-type wafers, prices reached RMB 1.1/piece, RMB 1.6-1.65/piece, and RMB 1.3/piece for M10, G12, and G12R wafers, respectively.

For 183mm n-type wafers, prices mostly stabilized at RMB 1.1/piece. Few accepted higher price quotes, but the number of buyers at RMB 1.12/piece increased.
 

Cell

Prices for p-type M10 and G12 cells slightly dropped to RMB 0.29/W. M10 TOPCon cells sustained an average price of RMB 0.29/W, but the low-price range reached below RMB 0.28/W. For G12R and G12 TOPCon cells, prices dropped to RMB 0.29-0.3/W.

Cell makers continue to have losses. The gross margin of M10 TOPCon cells reached -11% to -12% at the trading price of RMB 0.29/W. With high inventory levels, the outlook remains bleak.

Given production costs, there is no room for further price drops. As oversupply persists, manufacturers will struggle with continued losses. Some have sustained prices for high-efficiency cells, delivering at prices no less than RMB 0.29-0.3/W.
 

Module

This week, prices for TOPCon modules reached RMB 0.76-0.88/W, sitting at RMB 0.76-0.8/W for some centralized generation projects. Overall, the average price was RMB 0.8-0.83/W. Some orders may not be delivered as per contracts. Tier-1 manufacturers hope to sustain prices at RMB 0.78-0.8/W, with spot prices nearing RMB 0.78/W and some dropping to RMB 0.76-0.77/W. Manufacturers are reducing the production of low-efficiency products and accelerating the phase-out of PERC products. Some hope to raise prices to stop the losses. Still, the key lies in demand, which has no sign of significant recovery in sight. With price wars and cheap low-efficiency products disrupting the market, module prices are not likely to rebound.

Prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules stood at RMB 0.72-0.85/W. As China saw fewer projects, prices fell below RMB 0.8/W. There were few deliveries of HJT modules recently, with prices landing at RMB 0.85-1.05/W, while average prices approaching RMB 0.96-1/W. For utility-scale projects, prices reached below RMB 1/W.

In non-China markets, prices for TOPCon modules varied significantly among regions, sitting at USD 0.1-0.105/W in Asia-Pacific, EUR 0.085-0.115/W in Europe, USD 0.105-0.13/W in Australia, USD 0.085-0.12/W in Brazil, and slipping to USD 0.09-0.12/W in the Middle East. Average prices for utility-scale projects were nearly USD 0.1/W. In Latin America, prices came in at USD 0.09-0.11/W. PERC and HJT modules were delivered at USD 0.09-0.1/W and USD 0.12-0.14/W, respectively.